Barry McLoughlin's Blog

Lessons from Newt's SC Victory

2012-01-22T23:45:00.000-05:00

Welcome back!

It's been a crazy couple of weeks. Since I last posted my blog, we've been in St. John's
Newfoundland (again) and are now in Edmonton. The Republican primaries have been delighting political fanatics - such as yours truly. First, with the 'never-say-die' campaign of Rick Santorum (who was declared the Iowa caucuses winner, only two primaries later). Then the irrepressible Newt Gingrich who routed Mitt Romney in South Carolina. It seems that just as Romney appears close to becoming the inevitable nominee, it's snatched back from him, as Republican voters still can't get entirely comfortable with him. So, what lessons can be learned from all this, going forward in the run for the Presidency?

Lessons from Newt's South Carolina Victory

1. When in personal trouble, attack the 'elite media'. ABC News timed its 'exposé' with his second ex-wife, for maximum impact. Everyone who tuned into the debate waiting with baited breath to see him squirm weren't counting on Newt's debate strategy which was to eviscerate CNN's John King for daring to make it his first question, and was able to position the whole thing as the "elite media protecting Barack Obama by attacking Republicans". Regardless of what one thinks of Newt, it was an incredibly powerful performance which elicited a standing ovation from an apparently deeply Christian, conservative audience who will forgive sin before they forgive the media elites.
2. Romney's delay in releasing his tax returns has increasingly become his Achilles heel, raising questions and rumors about whether or not he has paid his fare share. It makes the narrative about Romney being out of touch with ordinary Americans even more believable. He had previously said he would release his returns in April, but this is clearly not tenable. His surprisingly shaky debate performance combined with his flippant answer ("maybe") to John King's question about why he won't release his tax returns as his father [Gov. George Romney] had done, made him look uncaring about the importance of the issue. The question now is, will he try to get through Florida's Jan. 31st primary before releasing them? If he delays further, he risks losing Florida, and then his campaign will be in serious trouble.
3. Rick Perry's dropping out of the race, throwing his support (what was left of it) to Gingrich at first appeared like it was Perry jumping from the frying pan into the fire, but it served to give hard-core Conservatives a stronger reason to bet on Gingrich, in spite of the marital infidelity story.
4. Santorum can't be totally counted out yet. He finished in decent shape with a respectable third place showing, and if the vitriol between Gingrich and Romney ramps up any hotter, primary voters might turn to him as their second choice. Although he's a total longshot, crazier things have already happened in this primary season.
Sidebar - Canadian Content
As a sidebar, Newt Gingrich somewhat over-the-top slamming of Obama turning down the Keystone pipeline project added Canadian content to the debate. His description of Stephen Harper ("a Conservative, pro-American Prime Minister") turning away from the American oil market and towards China as a result of the President's giving a thumbs-down to the Keystone project, wasn't exactly accurate but all's fair in primary season, right? [However, the Prime Minister's casting of the Gateway pipeline struggle as 'environmental radicals and Hollywood celebrities vs. Canada's economic future' was a definite take-away from the Keystone experience. Last week I did a coast-to-coast radio tour on CBC discussing it in strategic communications terms.

Although it's still a long way away, and still somewhat hallucinatory to contemplate, President Newt Gingrich, is actually not completely impossible!

Until next time.....

Happy New Year!

2012-01-04T06:20:00.000-05:00

Welcome to 2012!
As we say goodbye to a convulsive 2011, we could end up with an even stranger 2012 -at least in the world of politics. President Santorum?! Really? Although still in the 'unlikely' category, Rick Santorum's surging Presidential campaign was given a rocket boost as a result of his Iowa caucuses performance last night. Whoever has said that "my vote doesn't count" should look at those 8 votes that separated Romney from second-place finisher Santorum.
What happened in Iowa and what does it mean?
1. Santorum ran a high-road 'retail' campaign - visiting all 99 precincts across the state, while Romney focused on the main media markets and a massive advertising buy. In Iowa, that matters. They want to see and meet the candidates.
2. Santorum exceeded voter expectations, while Romney barely met them. Bachman, Perry, Cain and, finally, Gingrich were the 'flavor of the month' candidates set to take down Mitt Romney but each fell to earth as their negatives weighed down their positives. Iowa caucuses' voters decided in the final days that Santorum - who had a clean personal storyline, communicated a humble and sincere personality, and whose conservative social values reflected theirs more than Romney's - fit the bill. Romney initially had signaled that he was not going to focus on Iowa, but changed his mind in the final weeks - ramping up his attacks on Gingrich and his 'robo-calls' and began to predict victory. The result was that even though he won by 8 votes, he barely met expectations.
3. Ron Paul is not going away. The Libertarian Congressman's voters are deeply devoted to him and his respectable third-place showing will serve him well in New Hampshire next week. Although he has apparently ruled out a third-party candidacy, don't bet the mortgage on it.
4. Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann's campaigns are dead in the water. Iowa's results made that abundantly clear. Perry flying home to Texas to 'reassess' his campaign speaks volumes for the reality check that Iowa gave him. Although Michele Bachmann's 5% result was devastating, her speech indicates she still wants to fight. However, that appears to be a fantasy after last night, and she may well be figuring out her best bargaining chip to leverage to be on the Republican ticket.
5. Gingrich will hang in as long as he can - if only to deny Romney the nomination. Notice the nice things he said about Santorum? His bitterness towards Romney and his negative ads seems to have given him fuel for the fire. But he will have to stop the slide from his late November peak if he's going to stay in the race past South Carolina.
6. Although it's still Romney's to lose, the Iowan results do reinforce that he he has a ceiling on his vote that he will have to raise. The Republicans are increasingly looking for a candidate that can beat Obama in November, so Romney must continue to win - yes even by 8 votes - in order to build that perception of winnability. John McCain's endorsement this week in New Hampshire will attempt to cement that perception. They aren't ever going to love him; but they need to respect him.

Finally, whoever is going to win the Republican nomination must keep front and center, the ultimate November ballot box question will be 'who can I trust to get the economy moving again?'

Until next time......

Herman Cain & Rick Perry's Nightmares

2011-11-10T23:13:00.003-05:00

Welcome back!
After a short hiatus from my blog - time I spent doing media, presentation and crisis communications seminars with Laura [Peck] from Los Angeles to New York to Ottawa and then on to Alberta. So it's time to catch up with the world of politics. And the word 'nightmare' comes to mind with the Presidential campaigns of Herman Cain and Rick Perry.

It's hard to believe, but going into this week's Republican debate all eyes were on Herman Cain and how he would handle the revelations about the sexual harassment charges leveled by four women against him. Instead, the internet and media coverage ended up chock full of commentary on Rick Perry's debate disaster. Ouch!

Herman Cain: How Not to Respond in a Crisis
1. The Politico journalist called the Cain campaign with a heads up on his story of two sexual harassment allegations settled by the National Restaurant Association on Cain's behalf in the 1990s. What did Mr. Cain do? Nothing. He sat on it.
2. When the news broke he met the media on his way out of a Sunday Morning talk show and claimed he didn't know anything about it. He even demanded the names of the two women who had signed the confidentiality agreement!
3. His story began to change - first denying it; then waffling about what the agreement was; calling one of the women a 'liar' [thus triggering her demand to be released from her confidentiality agreement]; then labeling it racism, a political smear job by the Democrats etc.

Instead of a forthright and clear statement at a news conference from the outset, he ensured that it was at the very least a ten day story [or much longer]. Remember one of our 10 Principles of Crisis Communications: 'Get all the bad news out at once. Have a 'bad day' - otherwise you'll have a bad week, a bad month or a bad year!'
Overcoming Panic and Fear:Risk and Crisis Communications

Gov. Rick Perry's 53 Second Nightmare
After Wednesday evening's CNBC Republican debate, all of the media and bloggers' focus was on

Rick Perry's Painful Memory Lapse.
The big question is: how damaging was it? In the short term, it is certainly embarassing to him and his supporters. The timing was particularly damaging. All he had to do was show some improvement over his previous less-than-stellar debate performances. Instead, his self-inflicted brain cramp over the names of the three Agencies he would cut was a delight to the media commentators, 24 hour news channels, and particularly on YouTube®, Twitter®, Facebook® and the blogosphere.

It's too early to say if the damage is permanent. He has moved quickly - appearing the next morning on the morning TV shows and the next evening on with the Top Ten Rick Perry Excuses showing he has a sense of humor, rather than rolling over and playing dead. [I had said first thing in the morning that is what he should do and I was blown away when it was later announced that is exactly what he was scheduled to do!] It looks like the Perry campaign's disaster recovery strategy is textbook on how to do it.

In the meantime, Mitt Romney remains largely untouched, graciously responding when invited to feast on Herman Cain's problems, by avoiding the temptation to pile on. Romney is watching his opponents rise and fall back, as his slow but steady campaign rolls on inexorably towards his [increasingly likely] nomination.

I was on Don Martin's Power Play on CTV News Channel on Thursday talking about all of this. Who says politics is boring?
Remembering Our Veterans

November 11 is Remembrance Day in Canada and the British Commonwealth; and Veterans' Day in the United States. As the son of a World War II veteran, I know how much we owe them - and how much. They've asked so little of us. We salute them all and thank them for their courage and service.

Until next time.....

Change vs. More of the Same?

2011-10-18T00:22:00.009-04:00

Welcome back!
We are in the middle of crazy travel criss-crossing North America. Since my last post, Laura and I have been doing seminars in Edmonton, Alberta, Kelowna B.C., Washington DC, Los Angeles and Ottawa. Next week, Laura is in Nashville while I'm in New York and there are several stops in between. As a result, I have been somewhat remiss in my postings. However, it is the ultimate season for politicos and sports nuts everywhere, isn't it? The World Series is under way, hockey is in full swing and we're deep into football. It's sensory overload for people like me.
Canadians Choose Stability Over Change
In Provincial Elections in Ontario, Manitoba, Newfoundland & Labrador and Prince Edward Island, the incumbent governments were re-elected. Although mostly by reduced margins and - in Ontario's case - the McGuinty Liberal government was reduced to a minority (by one vote...a 'major minority' as Premier McGuinty called it.) So what was the deal with those results? What happened to all the anger and the desire for change that many had anticipated?
In spite of pockets of anger - such as the 'Occupy' movement - Canadians could have been persuaded to change, if they felt that there was a strong alternative on offer that would benefit themselves, their families and their communities. For the most part, that didn't happen. Even though the Progressive Conservative parties and their leaders in Ontario, Manitoba and P.E.I. put up a spirited fight, they could not overcome one of the most powerful forces in politics - the desire to maintain a steady course in choppy economic waters.
There is no question that the voters in those elections are nervous - particularly as the Europeans grapple with their bail-outs; and the Americans' struggle with the debt, deficit, foreclosures and unemployment. Ultimately a voter will make one of three decisions when anxious about their futures: 1. Stay home. The majority of voters chose not to trudge to the polls and cast their votes. [By the way, I would love it if reporters were to ask the 'Occupy' protesters if they bothered to vote in the last election.]
2. Go with 'change'. That change must be compelling, clear. The Party and Leader must drive a message that you really care about. In these elections, it wasn't about taxes, it was about jobs and economic growth. There were big voter shifts in most of the elections, but not enough to topple the incumbent governments. Attack campaigns work, but they also require a solid alternative view that resonates with the values of your voter universe.
3. Stay with the Party and Leader who represents a 'steady hand at the tiller'. That was what the Conservatives under Prime Minister Harper did in the May federal election as they moved from minority to majority government, and it was what the winning Provincial Premiers did in their wins. It is using incumbency for its maximum benefit - namely, to portray stability and a solid plan for the future. It's often labeled 'better the devil you know than the devil you don't' - and there is some truth to it However, the fact is that campaigns matter and the winning campaigns were able to use the 'air war' [ads and earned media] with a strong 'ground war' - with troops on the ground, door-to-door, telephone canvas etc.] In a solid campaign it all comes together.
What's at Stake in the Las Vegas Republican Debate?
The Las Vegas edition of the traveling Republican debate circus provides an important opportunity to test the ability of Herman Cain to gain continued momentum or fall back like many before him. Can anyone else move up the chain to stunt the seeming inevitability of a Mitt Romney nomination victory? As the Republican candidates fight for positioning, it's intriguing to watch the rising and falling fortunes of their individual campaigns.
First Gov. Sarah Palin's slow flame-out as people saw more of her, they began to really question, and then conclude, that she was not Presidential material. Having just read The Rogue: Searching for the Real Sarah Palin by Joe McGinniss like it or love it, it paints a picture that is unsettling to say the least. Rep. Michelle Bachman appeared to inherit the Palin mantle, rose quickly and then faded as her 'sound bites' began to reveal a lack of depth.
Then it looked like Gov. Rick Perry was going to be the one to take out Gov. Mitt Romney. After several lackluster debate performances, and one or two embarrassing events and comments, his star faded too - leaving businessman Herman Cain in a neck-and-neck race with Romney. [Although it's intriguing that Gov. Perry doesn't seem to mention his success in reducing the numbers of people sent to prison for minor drug offences, even closing prisons and getting people into drug rehab programs. Perhaps he has calibrated that it won't ingratiate him with Tea Partiers, but he has to remember that he has to build on that base, not just cater to it.]
Does Cain really have a chance of knocking Romney out?
Based on the evidence, no. While he has an appealingly open charm and a lot of credibility in the business world, he is making a lot of rookie mistakes - joking about immigration 'electrical fences that could kill illegal immigrants'. He has a bold slogan '9-9-9' but he has not laid the groundwork for it well enough and has not addressed the problems with it. His proposed 9% flat tax for individuals and companies, along with a 9% sales tax are highly controversial but he has done nothing to alleviate the greatest attack - that his plan is unfair to those who are most vulnerable. Although he could offer a minimum threshold for his income tax, and a sales tax refund for low income people, he has not addressed how to make it more fair. Cain has to realize that as he nears the top of the pile, everything he says will be under the spotlight and there is no room for jokes about serious issues.

While Romney can come across as too slick by half, nevertheless, he has been tested on the national stage for six years. That experience and long-term exposure is critically important to a serious candidate. His Mormon religion is still an issue, but he has reached the stage where anyone [or surrogate, as Rick Perry has learned] who attacks his Mormonism does more damage to his or her favored candidate - than good. Romney's greatest vulnerability is that many still wonder what his true values are, as he appears to have shifted them based on his actions as Massachusetts Governor compared to today - particularly on health care. Romney is clearly the man to beat for the nomination. He just needs a steady, solid performance tonight - in keeping with his 'steady' campaign manner. It's not going to create excitement; nevertheless he's beginning to emerge as a steady and clear alternative to President Obama.

And remember, steadiness and stability can be highly attractive in unsettling economic times!

Technology Companies in Crisis...RIM Learns a Lesson
For Blackberry users such as me around the world, it was a frustrating week. RIM had to learn again what so many organizations have learned the hard way. Get out ahead of the crisis. Make sure your CEO [in RIM's case, two co-CEOs] is visible. RIM sent out their Chief Technology Officer and held back on their CEOs until a day later. I got caught in L.A. without my Blackberry operating for a day. Although it was an inconvenience, many consumers were more angered by the slow communications response than the triggering incident. Again, another lesson to be re-learned.
The Perils of Communicating Health Risks
Health care is a risk issue. How you handle difficult or controversial issues in the health care field must be handled carefully. The goal is to raise awareness so that the public will take action to reduce further risk, while avoiding inflaming. Questions have arisen about the handling of a potential health risk through lack of appropriate infection control procedures by a doctor and a public health clinic. The announcement by Dr. Isra Levy, Ottawa's Medical Officer of Health was seen by many to be inadequate as he withheld the name of the clinic and the nature of the procedure in his first news conference. That decision not to release that information while issuing the public warning raised criticism. However, even though it was delayed by 48 hours, the proper information was released by the much-respected Dr. Levy and he ably defended himself before the media and City Council. The lesson to 'get as much bad news out as possible - right away' would be helpful for all Medical Officers of Health facing similar challenges in the future. In this CTV National news item in which yours truly was interviewed, see for yourself how the issue came across [fast forward 4 minutes into the newscast].

Until next time, remember, what happens in Vegas....stays on YouTube!

The Psychological Voter 'Drivers'

2011-10-03T01:14:00.000-04:00

Welcome back!
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies." —Groucho Marx
Groucho probably had that about right, but - hey - that won't stop us from exploring one of my favorite sports, politics!
I can't believe it's been nearly three weeks since my last posting. The craziness of the fall season is well underway, and I've traveled from one end of one country (Canada) to the other end of the other (United States). In between seminars and consulting I've kept a close eye - with some media interviews - on politicians, debates, elections and scandals thrown in for good measure. Within the next week or so, there will be provincial and territorial elections in Canada and in the U.S., Republican candidate debates. And to make it really fun and games....it's World Series time!!!! So let's get started with this week's subject...the psychological 'drivers' of voters.
The Psychological Voter 'Drivers'
If every political campaign could understand the psychological state of their voters, they would hold the victory within their grasp. For if you understand your voter, you learn what motivates them and may ultimately get them to the polls to mark an 'X' next to your candidate's name [or 'yes' or 'no' on your ballot initiative].
Although I am not a psychologist - nor have I played one on television, but...... based on providing strategic communications advice, training for media, debates and campaign speeches for dozens of campaigns, I venture the following analysis:
Driver No. 1. Voters can be highly volatile in their opinions. Their opinions can change fairly rapidly based on specific arguments that make sense to them, if they resonate with their collective experiences. For example, whether a 10% tax middle class tax cut is a good thing or not, is a matter of opinion, on which reasonable people may disagree. It's what the cuts are associated with [the connotations] that matter: for those opposed to the cuts, the campaign might focus on the cuts to health care, education etc. while those in favor might focus on jobs and opportunities. What voters supported two or four years ago, don't assume that they are going to support it this year.
Driver No. 2. Connect with the slower-moving prevailing public attitudes - broader than any one issue, attitudes are more powerful than trading opinions. For example, tax cuts is only one of a basket of issues - "unfair tax hikes' and "lies", "waste" and "giveaways" etc. They can form a hardened powerful public opinion. In turn, that can generate a wave of anger and protest [witness the current Wall St. daily protests spreading elsewhere]. While slower to shift than opinions, prevailing attitudes do change and they can end up throwing leaders and governments out of power. Clearly this is what Ontario's PC Leader Tim Hudak and the NDP's Andrea Horwath are counting on as they race towards what appears to be a minority government situation. [By the way, I wonder what kind of ink Premier McGuinty's pledge to not form a coalition government was written with? Just asking.]
Driver No. 3. Connect with the core (very-slowly) changing values of 'voters'. Values - family, community, justice, protecting the environment, protecting borders etc. can be the most powerful motivators of all - when they are under attack. Like a mama bear, values can lie there unstirred and taken for granted. But when that bears cubs are threatened, don't be surprised if it lashes out angrily to protect its young. So one of the rules of politics is, don't press the 'values' button unless you are sure that your voters competing values are stronger and can be marshaled in your favor. Every election is ultimately a fight for a large piece of the voters' value set. Who gets a hold of that, is often the winner.
Driver No. 4. Connect with the leader/candidate. The voters don't have to love the candidate or Leader [but it definitely helps]. The key is respect. Stephen Harper counted on 'respect' from the voter in his last two elections, not necessarily 'love'. The love that millions of voters had for Barack Obama in 2008 needs to be translated into 'respect' if he hopes to be re-elected in 2012. If the candidate makes embarrassing comments, in the Twitter-verse world, he or she runs the danger of becomes a running joke. Some move quickly to apologize or explain or - even better - poke fun at themselves, such gaffes can be overcome, so long as they can relate to the candidate. As the 'fitness-challenged' Gov. Chris Christie [Rep. NJ] contemplates throwing his hat into the Republican Presidential race, it signals that the public no longer have an idea of the 'perfect' candidate in mind. Instead, they seem to want a candidate whom they could 'have a beer with'. They want someone to connect with. Not to worship, but someone who really gets them and speaks up and asks for them.
Driver No. 5. A powerful message, powerfully communicated. 'Change' is an over-used but powerful message. Alberta's Alison Redford, came from behind to win the leadership of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party this past weekend in the run-off election and is now the Premier-designate of Alberta. She represented change in the status quo. Hard to beat that! In Manitoba, after one of the nastiest campaigns on record, if the PC's Hugh McFadyen succeeds in taking down NDP Premier Greg Selinger it will demonstrate once again that 'change' trumps virtually everything else.

So, what does all this mean for this week's elections in PEI, Ontario and Manitoba? I won't predict as they are three very different campaigns, but it is clear that change is in the air. The other five psychological 'drivers' will come into play in their own way and how strongly they do will tip the balance. It's important to remember that momentum and get-out-the-vote [GOTV] are critical to paying off on your voter analysis. So no matter who your party or candidate is, exercise your hard-won right and get out and vote! Or even better, volunteer for the candidate or Party you believe in. You are more important to democracy than you think. Pass it on!

Until next time.......

10 Years After

2011-09-11T11:52:00.002-04:00

September 11, 2001 -

I remember vividly where I was at 8:46 a.m. Laura and I were in our office, welcoming Federal Court judges to our media seminar. Chief Justices of the Superior Courts from every province were filing in for their day before the cameras. The television was on in our large reception area in our office in the heritage building, known as the Central Chambers, overlooking Ottawa's Confederation Square. A day so achingly beautiful. Little did we know that it was to be the last day of our innocence.

As we gathered around the television, trying desperately to comprehend what we were looking at. Then the double hit - of the plane hitting the South Tower at 9:03 - and any thoughts of an 'accident' were obliterated. Although I didn't feel like it, I suggested to the judges that we begin the seminar and that we would stop at lunch to see what has transpired. To my amazement, we continued the seminar and I look back on it and sometimes think of how our brains can shift into another gear under terrible circumstances. We did indeed stop at noon to learn that Flight 93 had been brought down in a field in Shanksville, Pennsylvania, and that a plane had crashed into the Pentagon.

Looking out the window, there was a troubling sign - yellow tape surrounded our building. Were the judges in our office under threat? The thought crossed my mind, but I didn't share it. We learned from the radio that a suspicious truck was found outside the Parliament Buildings, raising serious questions about everyone's safety in buildings such as ours.

I recall in the aftermath that Canadians were ahead of their own government in their desire to reach out to America, to demonstrate that we were united with them in their grief. Besides the 24 Canadians who lost their lives at the World Trade Centre, Canada lost more than that. We lost our innocence too. We remember not just those who perished or the brave firefighters and policemen and women. We pay tribute to ordinary people in towns like Gander, Newfoundland who opened their hearts and homes for 6600 Americans when their flights were grounded and who spent days waiting for the skies to re-open; to NavCanada professionals and the aircrews of those 239 diverted aircraft who brought them to safety in airports across Canada. Ambassador David Jacobson's visit to Gander on this 9/11 is a tribute which brings home how the United States and Canada were united as one in one of the world's darkest hours.

The 10th Anniversary memorial broadcast included beautiful pieces by Yo Yo Ma, Paul Simon and James Taylor with his beautiful piece, Close Your Eyes. It's an example of how music can reach us when words fail to capture the devastation - and yes - the strength of the human spirit to endure.
Let's just say 'thank you'. We remember and we will never forget.

5 keys to Success in a Campaign

2011-09-05T22:30:00.001-04:00

Now that Labour Day has passed, voters begin to turn their attention to one of the ultimate fall 'sports', and that is politics. Here in Ontario, as well as a number of provinces across the country, that means the looming elections. With the October 6th Ontario election as a prime example, let's examine the "keys to victory" for the winning Party.

1. Control of the Issue
Pundits claim that there is no real 'defining issue' in this campaign. However, as often as not, an issue does emerge which galvanizes the voters and drives them to the polls. Unfortunately for the Ontario PCs in the 2007 election, the issue which emerged was their support for expanding taxpayer support for religious schools. Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals leaped on that like manna from heaven (no pun intended) and drove it relentlessly to victory. The old saying, "he who defines the issue will win the war" is a truism that should always be front and centre for all campaigns. In this election, Tim Hudak must make "change" the issue.

With his ad buy in full gear, Dalton McGuinty is already trying to make change 'scary'. Expect to hear Mike Harris named as often as Tim Hudak. For Andrea Horvath, she needs to position the NDP as the vehicle for change in the way politics is conducted. The Opposition parties must remember that their real role is to continually hold the government's feet to the fire. In other words, to make the Government the issue. They need to ensure that, while they must have a solid plan with a clear alternative to the status quo, they don't need to over-reach on the policy front

2. A Focused Campaign with a Clear Strategy
Every campaign today has a 'daily script' and the ability to stay on script is essential to a coherent campaign. Local candidates often account for 5 to 10% of the vote; however, if they mess up with controversial comments, then that serves to derail the overall campaign for one or more days at a time, throwing it off message. The war rooms will be watching like a hawk to nip that kind of controversy in the bud. This will be the first provincial election in Ontario fought in the Twitterverse, so every embarrassing moment will be spread instantly like wildfire.

3. Shape the Ballot Question
It is critical to the swing voters that they ask themselves the right question when they walk into the ballot booth. The fight for the ballot question begins at the outset of the campaign, and all of the campaign should be focused on driving it home - through social media, and the traditional media; at the doorstep; in the campaign literature and ultimately over the backyard fence.

4. Credibility of the Leader
All elections revolve around the Leaders. The ability of that leader to communicate vision, strength, credibility and -yes, likeability - are critical to success. Mike Harris transformed himself into a "Helluva Guy" [known as the HOAG factor] with whom voters could identify and rely upon. In this election, Dalton McGuinty's likeability factor has been questionable at best, while Tim Hudak is still unknown to many voters. This leaves the Liberals with an opportunity to fill-in-the-blanks as Stephen Harper's campaign did to Michael Ignatieff in the last federal election. Andrea Horvath is also largely unknown and will have to do all she can to get media-and voter- attention.

5. Exceed Expectations in the Debate
It looks like there will probably only be one debate, and the Premier's people will no doubt want it no later than mid-point in the campaign in case things go wrong and he needs time to recover. Hudak's campaign will want to hold it later and bet that Hudak can exceed expectations and gain momentum through Election Day. Although there is not always a clear-cut winner declared; nevertheless, the goal is to avoid a memorable error (John Turner's famous 'I had no option' in the 1984 federal election debate comes to mind), but to exceed media and pundits' expectations that can trigger momentum at the doorstep. There is no doubt in my mind that the debate can be a powerful key to winning an election. So expect to see considerable time devoted to it by all candidates.

We'll re-visit the campaign from time-to-time to see how these 'keys' play out. In the meantime let the games begin!

Why People Were Drawn to Jack?

2011-08-24T22:41:00.004-04:00

Speaking of Jack...
I was interviewed by CTV at the ceremony on August 25th in front of Parliament Hill at the end of the Lying-in-State ceremony for the late Leader of the Opposition, Jack Layton. They wanted to talk about the content of the blog posting below, Why People Were Drawn to Jack?

CTV - commenting on Jack Layton

Welcome back.
Canadian politics lost a phenomenal political leader, with the sad news that Jack Layton, the NDP Leader of the Opposition, passed away. As with millions of people across the country, I felt personally saddened by the loss of "the Happy Warrior". I had the privilege of knowing Jack on a personal and professional level, and although I won't get into the details, I knew him well enough to share some of my analysis of why Jack Layton was able to strike such a profound chord with so many people. Hopefully, there are lessons in there for all who contemplate or practice the art of politics.

Why People Were Drawn to Jack?
1. Jack had a positive vision. He was able to foresee and articulate a future in clear and compelling terms that he felt deeply and authentically would be a better world than what we have today. He shared that vision in every way, every day.
2. Jack felt that politics could be a noble calling and he was never apologetic about being a politician. I had the privilege of knowing and working with his late father, Bob, early in my career and Bob's zest for life was so obviously passed on to his son - and I am sure - to his children. We would occasionally joke about the fact that he was a conservative while his son was a socialist, but that was never a barrier in the love that the two men shared for each other. At the same time, although he was a strong leader, he knew that he could only succeed through igniting a passion for citizen involvement among youth and others who had felt marginalized.
3. Some might say he was a 'dreamer', but he was very much a realist. An optimistic one, absolutely, but a realist nonetheless. He was strategic in his thinking, disciplined in his actions and determined in the face of sometimes frightening odds - both politically - and as we all witnessed on the campaign trail earlier this year - profoundly personal - yet determined to see it through. As Canadians saw him hobbling along on the campaign trail, he turned his cane into a metaphor for a gutsy fighter speaking out for ordinary Canadians against the odds.
4. Jack drew energy from people. Some might have cast him as a 'showboat' with his penchant for colorful outfits and stunts that got him coverage, but that was part of his zest for life and his love of people as much as it was for the political benefit those events may have garnered him and his party.
5. Jack was an extremely considerate and thoughtful man and people loved him for those qualities. Earlier this year I asked him if he would kindly write a letter of reference for me for a particular project, and his letter could not have been more gracious - if too kind. But I will treasure that always.
Canada Says Goodbye

Jack Layton Lies in State on Parliament Hill

Prime Minister Harper, although a long-time political foe of Jack Layton's clearly had a special relationship with him, and his personal comments, topped off by his ordering of a state funeral for him was so obviously the right thing to do and fully in keeping with Canadians' fondness for Jack. The overall response to his passing has been marked with the special grace that Jack radiated since he was diagnosed last year with cancer, and his subsequent broken hip. The last time I spoke with him - after the election - we were doing TV interviews up on the Hill on different networks, but at the same time. After a laugh or two about that, I thanked him for his gracious letter on my behalf, and those blue eyes looked right into mine and he said, "I meant every word of it."
Trust me, there are very few people in politics who would ever bother to say such a thing, but that was what drew people to Jack. He passed that grace on this week to all Canadians who have come together across the political divides in every part of Canada to bid bon voyage to a singular man who left us a great legacy. Although it's not the end of partisanship, it could be a big step towards civility in politics.

Let's leave it with this poster taken from Jack's last letter to Canadians written two days before his death. Until next time....

5 Tips for Communicating in Difficult Times

2011-08-09T14:09:00.001-04:00

The global financial markets have once again sent shock waves to businesses and governments around the world, raising anxiety levels once again while driving down consumer confidence. Now is the time to strengthen the strategic communications of one's organization, rather than running away from it. Here are five tips I would offer to respond to this latest economic storm.

5 TIPS FOR COMMUNICATING IN DIFFICULT TIMES

1. Revise and develop a focused communications strategy. That means touching base with your customers and stakeholders to understand their priorities and concerns.

2. Develop your strategy for reaching them with a unique selling proposition that fits their goals. All strategies need to be revisited on a regular basis. What worked in good times, may be just the wrong strategy for difficult or uncertain times.

3. Tailor your message. Ensure that your message isn't about 'you' but about 'them'. In a tightened environment, with declining share value,make sure that your messages offer solutions to your clients.

4. Be proactive. Through social media, earned media opportunities, special events, customer appreciation initiatives and focused advertising, step up your efforts to connect with your marketplace and community of interests. Remember, a lot of your competitors will be lowering their profile, so consider this a heightened opportunity to get before your customers.

5. Prepare the way. You have to till the ground before seeding it. So, get your communications planning nailed down, train your spokespeople in media interviews to benefit from that earned media, and train your executives and sales force in powerful customer presentations. And then...... get out there!

This is the time to be at your best and to sell your solutions to your customers. Even if you have to work twice as hard to get half as much, a market shake-up such as this could be the proverbial ‘buying opportunity’ for your company and your services!

As Winston Churchill famously said, "I like to make things happen; and if they don't happen, I like to make them happen."

Until next time....keep an optimistic mindset. Your positive energy will be a tonic for difficult times.

The Murdochs Under Fire

2011-07-21T22:42:00.002-04:00

Welcome back!
So, if you think the heat wave is getting to you, imagine what it's been like for Rupert and James Murdoch?! The newspaper baron and his son just underwent a scorching few hours of testimony before a British Parliamentary Committee and emerged relatively unscathed. How have the Murdochs and his News Corp. company been handling the crisis so far? In this posting we will take a look and assign a 'grade' to them.
But first allow me to catch up on some personal news....
Joseph T. Whelan, R.I.P.
Laura and I have just returned from Troy, Michigan where we attended the funeral services for my very close friend since our time together at the Kennedy School, Best Man at our wedding, and godfather to our daughter Caroline, Joe Whelan. Following a long struggle with serious health issues, Joe finally succumbed at the age of 56, on July 14th - leaving behind his terrific wife, Kim, and their four beautiful young children. I had the honor of being asked to speak at the visitation service the night before the funeral and I recalled the unique, witty and brilliant Irish-American that Joe was. For any of our mutual friends, if you'd care for a copy of my remarks, drop me a line and I will send it to you. Better yet, say a prayer, raise a glass, or do a good deed in honor of Joe, who did so much for others -notably Mercy Home for Boys and Girls in Chicago.
The Murdochs' Lurch from Crisis to Damage Control

Murdochs Face the Music

I was interviewed this week on CTV News Channel on the blossoming crisis facing the Murdochs. I dashed over from Troy MI to Windsor, did the interview at the Windsor CTV station and was back in Troy within the hour. Much has been written and broadcast about the newspaper hacking scandal over in Britain involving News of the World and the journalists there who engaged in shoddy - likely criminal - conduct involving breaking into the voice mails of politicians, celebrities and in one particularly outrageous instance - the voice mail of a young murder victim. Throw in pay-offs to police and cozying up to politicians and the Murdochs have found themselves closing down the highly profitable newspaper and shutting down their efforts to buy the remaining shares in the satellite company BSkyB that they don't already own.
So what did the Murdochs do? Throw the highly profitable News of the World over the side - hoping against hope that they could keep their BSkyB plan alive. Exactly the opposite of what they should have done. They were forced to abandon the BSkyB effort only a few days later anyway and the only result of closing down the admittedly damaged News of the World was to send their share price tumbling worldwide. Hmm....

David Cameron Under Fire

David Cameron Fights Back
Throw in the connection to Prime Minister David Cameron who made the mistake of hiring former editor Andy Coulson who had assured him and the public that he had nothing to do with illegal practices. Finally, he admitted, only this week, that he had made a mistake "with 20/20 hindsight". Ya think? However, after cutting short an African trip he faced down the Opposition during 'Prime Minister's Questions' and comported himself well. So, perhaps, now he has found his footing on the issue, and must hope that it will gradually cool down from the present red-hot fire that threatens to engulf his government.

Parliamentary Grilling and a 'Pie' in the Face
As we coach people to appear before Parliamentary and legislative committees, I was most interested in how the Murdochs and Rebekah Brooks would do when they were brought before the British Parliamentary Committee on Tuesday.
So how did the Murdochs do? James Murdoch held his own - probably saving his job, as he outshone his father - coming across as solid and grounded, when only a few days ago the rumors were rampant that he was to be sacrificed. Rupert started slow and scripted but gradually loosened up. His biggest negative came when he was asked if he accepts responsibility for what happened and he said no - it was those who did these despicable things and the people they report to who should accept the blame. Not exactly classic leadership and the air went out of the balloon for him on that one.
The entire focus shifted, however, when an activist/'comedian' rushed forward with a plate of shaving cream and tried to 'pie' Rupert. In what became the news story, Wendi Deng Murdoch, Rupert's wife, leaped forward and landed a right-handed punch on the wacko [more like a volleyball smackdown than a 'left hook' as one MP later said admiringly]. Sometimes you just get lucky!
The hacking scandal is far from over, and the Murdochs have hired crisis managers in London, New York and Washington to do damage control. Perhaps now, they can begin to get on a solid footing and get this nightmare behind them.

Until next time...stay cool!

Saying goodbye to a crazy June....

2011-06-29T11:23:00.000-04:00

Welcome back!
Just before we wrap up this crazy month of June and, as we get ready for the national celebrations, and, of course Will and Kate's whirlwind honeymoon tour - along with 1600 accredited journalists - about to descend - first in Canada, and then in the United States, let's pause to consider for a few minutes what has transpired since my last missive some two weeks ago.
Anthony Weiner - gone, mercifully. Well at least until he tries a comeback - most likely I predict he will still try to run for New York's mayoralty in 2013. Why not? He's phenomenally more famous due to his tweeting and lying, right?
Conrad Black is going back to jail - thus satisfying those who can never get enough of punishing him. Proportionality went out the window on his case a long time ago, so, even after setting aside another conviction for what he has already been punished for, Judge Amy St. Eve sent him back to jail for up to another 13 months.
Former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich - in the same courthouse, no less.... was found guilty on 17 of 20 counts of criminal conduct and even he seemed subdued by the jury's decision. Even at that, there is no cause for schadenfreude or the usual gloating that goes on when the mighty and powerful are brought down. It's more sad than anything.
Settling Strikes
Two strikes were settled in Canada in recent weeks - one at Air Canada, in which even the whiff of back-to-work legislations by the Harper government led to a quick settlement. The Canada Post strike required a full throttle Parliamentary debate that pitted the NDP Opposition against the Harper government's legislation. Although it didn't satisfy the underlying issues, a majority of the public (two-thirds) felt that it was the right thing to do. Word is that even the union didn't want the strike to continue, as it would cost the workers more than they would have gained. Both the NDP and the Conservative government came out of the Parliamentary battle reinforcing their values to their core supporters. The Liberals, led by Bob Rae, tried to find a middle ground, and got run over. Is that a harbinger for the future, as they try to rebuild their brand?
Expedience is its own reward
What both strikes have brought to the fore is that the under-funded pensions negotiated in past agreements, are coming back to haunt public and private sector corporations alike. The US Postal Service has announced that they are suspending their pension scheme as they cannot afford to keep it going. Although one does not like to see any corporation renege on their longstanding commitments, it comes down to trying to get 'blood out of a stone'. Taxpayers and customers won't help bail them out, so where would the money come from? Expedience is its own reward.
Will and Kate's Excellent Adventure - with no media interviews.....
Following their spectacular wedding, HRH William and Catherine, the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, will be gracing Canada and the United States, beginning tomorrow. One suggestion I would have had from a media consulting perspective, is for them to do a few media interviews in each country. It's an ideal opportunity to show the public that they are open and responsive - especially in Canada - where one day he will actually be the King of Canada. Just doing a BBC interview does little to connect with those living in Commonwealth countries. Besides, they might be very pleasantly surprised at how well the media will treat them on this side of the ocean! Maybe next time.....
Note our change of address:
On June 30th, our Canadian office is moving to: World Exchange Plaza, 45 O'Connor St. Suite 1150, Ottawa ON, Canada K1P 1A4. Our phone numbers and emails stay the same.

Happy Canada Day! Happy 4th of July! I hope you have a great summer! Stay safe and I hope your 'down time' is a good time.
Until next time.....

Adventures in Television Land

2011-06-14T14:04:00.000-04:00

Welcome back!
Another crazy week or two has gone by and there's much to catch up on.
Adventures in Television Land
First, file this under 'be ready for anything when it comes to Television Land'. Laura and I were in Toronto yesterday doing a seminar when the call came to appear on CTV's Power Play with Don Martin to discuss the Conservative government's relations with the media. A one hour drive across rush hour traffic later, we arrived at CTV Toronto to do a double-ender interview with Don Martin who was in the foyer of the House of Commons in Ottawa. So far, so good. We arrive a whole 15 minutes prior to my 5:28 scheduled airtime and was whisked into makeup right away (desperately needed and cheaper than surgery!). Then I wait in the green room for the call to go in. I start looking at my watch and it's already 5:27!! The able young producer pops in and asks me to follow him into the CTV newsroom/set and up a winding stairway we go to the mezzanine overlooking the news room, facing what the sign says is the "Mezz Cam". I am being fitted up by the camera man - with earpiece and microphone. So far so good. Although as soon as the earpiece is in I can hear that the interview is already underway with Don Martin and the Vice President of the Press Gallery, Malorie Beauchemin!

Stifling a mild sense of panic, I join the interview in progress, just as Don Martin asks me the question. Anyway the interview went off without a hitch, but see if you can detect if any of this was going on. A few hints ...my hair over my ear sticking out; Don's intro mentions that I am a guest in the segment but I don't actually come in until later..... That's live TV folks!
Live from the CTV Mezz Cam

Meanwhile...Anthony Weiner always tell the truth......eventually!

Anthony Weiner....'please leave, and don't let the door hit you on the way out of sex rehab'. Your President has broadly hinted that you should leave... your leader, Nancy Pelosi, has said 'resign'. You didn't just humiliate your wife, you embarrassed your own Party - and, - the ultimate political sin - the public is not listening to your party while the media are stuck on this pathetic little story.

So here is the secret - one more time - for dealing with such 'scandals'. Own up right, away, apologize and take appropriate action (in this case it's resign.) Not too difficult but for some reason people like Mr. Weiner need to keep learning it - over and over again.

The Republican Debate on Radio

Listening to the Republican New Hampshire debate on the car radio was an experience which hearkens back to another era in political debate - the Kennedy/Nixon debates when a significant percentage of people listened to it on radio - and actually thought that Nixon had won. I found it a very different experience from television. Listening more closely to what is said - rather than how they look when they are saying it, for one. Also, as radio is a more active engagement than the passive medium of television, it forces the listener to engage the candidates more. The conventional wisdom was that the three winners were Mitt Romney, Michele Bachman and (surprise! Newt Gingrich). Although CNN's John King did a solid job of keeping them on track, it was a tad annoying to hear him continually say, "Mr. Speaker". I know it's protocol but it's a bit much after all this time and on radio, one is left wondering 'who?' each time he said it.

Romney was strong and unshakeable - and his experience clearly showed. He didn't get ruffled and at least, sounded Presidential. Although one thing he said which didn't get much comment was that - unlike President Obama - he wouldn't have bailed out the big three automakers, he would have let them go bankrupt. In a real debate (and not just a series of 30 second speeches) the follow-up question would be, "so you would let the supplier companies take the hit, with laid-off workers and possibly more bankruptcies - rather than, say, a loan guarantee?" He'll need to think that one through.

Michele Bachman gained the most - announcing her formal candidacy on air; connecting with her Tea Party base; eroding the potential impact of a possible entry by Sarah Palin and outshining Herman Cain, who had been generating a lot of buzz prior to the debate. The miracle of Gingrich was that he seemed coherent at all...given the exit of his entire staff, and his gaffe-strewn campaign-to-date.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty was expected to do better than he did - especially as the alternative to Mitt Romney, but he ducked noticeably when he refused to repeat his 'Obamneycare' line which he had previously used. [Probably wise, but it contributed to a perception of lack of courage - awkward, considering his book is titled, "Courage to Stand"!]

There was certainly no Ronald Reagan defining moment of his 1980 New Hampshire debate against George Bush when Reagan refused to give over the microphone and said, "I am paying for this microphone!"[Reagan later would say that he felt that moment catapulted him into the nomination and, ultimately, the Presidency.] I was left with the feeling that in their zest to capture the Tea Party base, they were sowing the seeds for a general election drubbing at the hands of Obama.

Anyway, debate season is always fun - no matter where one stands politically. Almost on a par with the Stanley Cup playoffs. Go Canucks!

Until next time....

From the Capitol to the Capital

2011-06-03T00:05:00.002-04:00

Welcome back!
It's been a busy week or so in the McLoughlin Media biz, with business split between Ottawa and Washington DC....
where Laura and I attended the Nelson Mullins law firm's annual reception - as guests of former American Ambassador David Wilkins on the rooftop overlooking the beautiful U.S. Capitol. Politicos included Sen. Lindsay Graham (R. SC) and Rep. Edward Markey (D. MA) and a great time was had by all.
Presidential Speculation
Although we missed the launch of Sarah Palin's (surprise) bus tour, much discussion over the electoral landscape ensued. My prediction is that Ms. Palin will indeed enter, as she has been watching her 'Tea Party' base being wooed and captured by a number of Republican candidates who hope to capture their wind in their sails without capsizing their boats.

As of now, President Obama's election is the safe bet, particularly after the vanquishing of Osama bin Laden. Although with the debt out of control and unemployment stubbornly high, he would be vulnerable if someone came along and put forward a forthright plan to fix the economy, provide a solid health care policy and shows a galvanizing vision for the future. That almost begs for an independent candidate who isn't captured by Republican and Democrat party stalwarts who are going to ensure their leaders stay in their respective 'boxes'. Who is that? Probably the only one who would have a chance is New York City's mayor Michael Bloomberg who has the money and the credibility to mount a third party candidacy. Is he interested? Never say never. It would only take about half a billion dollars, or as Bloomberg might call it, 'chump change'. Here is Bloomberg the other day on BBC: Bloomberg on Climate Change What do you think?

Rep. Anthony Weiner [D.NY] and his Near Death Twitter Experience
Okay let me get this straight. His Twitter account was hacked. It may or may not be a picture of his genitals. He didn't send it. It looks like a prank. He won't call in the authorities ("it's not a federal case"), but he and his staff are conducting an investigation into it. it all makes sense to me! Take a look at this:
If you believe Rep. Weiner, I have an excellent piece of real estate for you...

Meanwhile back in Canada's Capital, Parliament Resumes...
With the election of a majority government combined with the ascension of the NDP to official opposition status, Parliament re-opens with a 32 year old Speaker, Andrew Scheer CPC, Regina Qu'Appelle) and today's Speech from the Throne. Although often kiddingly referred to as the 'Throne Drone' nevertheless, it will be an important indicator of the focus and priorities of the Harper government. I will be on CTV's PowerPlay with Don Martin today (Friday) at 5:12 pm ET [http://www.ctv.ca/powerplay]

Until next time.....

In between volcanoes and tornadoes, yes we can...

2011-05-24T16:21:00.000-04:00

Welcome back;
It's been a whirlwind of a month and a long time since I've posted. My travels have taken me from one end of the country (St. John's Newfoundland) to the other (Vancouver) with stops in Toronto, Edmonton and Washington DC. Then the second week.....
However, just when the world seems completely out of control (yes including you Arnold!) with tornado season sowing its destructive path in Missouri and elsewhere, what happens to top it off? A volcano in Iceland erupts (a different one than last year no less!). So maybe that wacko that said the earth was going to end last weekend got it slightly wrong.
Obama Searches for his Apostrophe
The visit of President Obama (searching for the apostrophe tour) was a smash hit in Ireland as it was destined to be. As an Irish ex-pat myself, I couldn't help but be proud of the welcome they gave the First Couple, and how they, in turn, wowed them. Take a look at this column from the Irish Independent to get a flavor of what it meant for the Irish. He's had a great couple of weeks in terms of his personal biography - he not only proved he was American born, but also he found his Irish roots.
Meanwhile back in Canada...the Senate inaction.....
The Harper government is settling into its majority government phase, setting off a firestorm over the appointment of three former candidates to the Senate. the fact that one of them was a defeated MP and two had been appointed to the Senate last year and then stepped down to run for the House of Commons triggered an avalanche of protest. Some thoughts on that:
1. Their real sin was in stepping down and running for office. If they had just shut up and remained in the Senate it wouldn't have been such an 'outrage'.
2. Although they quite obviously did not know they would be appointed back to the Senate, apparently they should have turned the offer down on the premise that they are 'soiled goods' because they decided to um.... face the electorate.
3. Although they are not fundraisers for the Conservative party, they are apparently 'bagmen' as the continually outraged Pat Martin would have it. One - Fabian Manning - is a former Newfoundland provincial Minister, and the other - Larry Smith - is former Commissioner of the Canadian Football League. Same thing eh? The third Senate appointee, Josee Verner, is a former Conservative Cabinet Minister who was defeated. Surely there should be shame there!
4. The fact that the Prime Minister unilaterally changed Senate appointments to a maximum eight year term, instead of a cash-for-life lottery is um....well ~~terrib~~ uh...unilateral of Harper. [although I have suggested that to help de-fuse it, he should deduct the several months that the re-appointed Senators have already served from that eight years].
5. Finally, as has already been suggested by Immigration Minister Jason Kenney, there is nothing stopping the provinces from taking Alberta's lead a number of years ago, and holding an election to determine who their next Senate appointment might be. For years, former Prime Minister Jean Chretien refused to recognize Alberta's elected Senator [Bert Brown] and received very little criticism for that. When it comes to the crunch the cognoscenti don't respect incremental reform of our unelected chamber. It's all or nothing.

So we all look forward to comprehensive change of the Senate under the majority government watch of Stephen Harper. Even if the provinces hi-jack the process with unrealistic Constitutional demands, at least he will have made it a signature move on his part. And if he goes down fighting, it is definitely better than avoiding the fight.
Until next time...

Looking back...and looking forward

2011-05-07T12:11:00.000-04:00

Welcome back!
I'm heading back from a few days' golfing trip with some friends in one of my favorite places on earth, Martha's Vineyard. Golf is a great sport to keep you grounded (at least my club was grounded on a regular basis....). It's certainly humbling. On Thursday - my first game of the year - I actually played decently (no numbers but my game was surprisingly solid). Then of course on Friday I ballooned by 11 strokes on the exact course in perfect weather. No excuses! It was the 11th annual Cinco de Mayo Tournament with 20 men - half representing Connecticut and the other half, New York. As an Irish-born Canadian, apparently it made perfect sense that I be part of the New York team! As I am currently on my way back home, the outcome is still uncertain, but trust me, my absence in the final round will not be a game-changer.

Bringing Justice to Bin Laden
With the elimination of Osama Bin Laden, the world is a better place, and it's a small measure of justice in the twisted story of the millionaire manipulator and mass murderer. Of course, the usual suspects come out of the woodwork with their plot stories and fake photos posted on the internet denying reality. Let's leave that to the Pakistan authorities. Talk about denying reality! Good for Barack Obama and the Navy SEALS. I know it's unfortunate that the President won't release the bin Laden photos. However, I can understand why, given the ability of the Jihadis and nut-bars to use the internet as a vehicle for leveraging their hatred. Too bad for Donald Trump. Rumors are that he was all set to sign up bin Laden for Celebrity Apprentice...

Donald and the 'Birthers'
Speaking of the Donald, his championing of the 'birther' movement has smacked of desperation from the get-go, but Trump does follow the rule that 'there's no such thing as bad publicity'. [Tell that to Charlie Sheen, whose fifteen minutes of fame are quickly coming to an end.] Although, the President could have ended that so-called controversy a long time ago by releasing his long-form birth certificate, which he has now done. It's understandable that he didn't want to be bullied into it giving it up, it did contribute to a ludicrous situation snowballing into something larger. So, it was the right call to do it.

Looking Back on the Canadian Election
With a few days to process the federal election, here are my thoughts on what happened and what it all means.
1. Stephen Harper won a solid victory, with 167 seats. He needed 155 seats in the 308 seat House of Commons, which gives him a comfortable cushion for the next four years. I note that quite a number of panels and expert commentators seemed to have 'buried the lead' in journalistic terms. They focus more on the NDP phenomenon than on the main story.
2. The NDP were indeed the surprise of the entire election and totally exceeded all the projections and pollsters. Why did the NDP do so well? The NDP does well when they represent a clear alternative to the status quo. This, Jack Layton was able to do, and in an even greater surprise in both English and French Canada. Layton virtually obliterated Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois in the process.
3. Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals triggered the election and you really have to question, why they did that? They were well back of the Conservatives when they triggered the House vote of confidence on the
'ethics' issues. They could have kept their powder dry until their Leader was better known in the public, and their resources and positioning were stronger and marketed better.
4. Fundamentally, the Tories won the ballot question, "stability vs. partisan, risky minority coalition governments". This was particularly effective as Michael Ignatieff had already been defined by the Conservative attack ads for two years leading up to the election. Negative attack ads among the parties probably cancelled each other out.

For some of my other comments on the election, check out my interview on Theo Caldwell's 'The Caldwell Account'

Until next time, if you have a few minutes, kindly keep my younger sister, Nora, in your thoughts and prayers as she fights for her health.

Getting Ready for E-Day

2011-04-26T23:35:00.001-04:00

Welcome back...

J.R. McLoughlin (1918-2011)

Well, it's been an emotionally draining week for me and my entire family. We lost my Dad, James Rodgers McLoughlin on Monday, April 18th. At the age of 93, J.R. died in his sleep after a few hours in hospital. Faithful readers will know how close our relationship was, and how much he influenced my life and my values. My four sisters, our spouses, seven grandchildren and four great-grandchildren will miss him dearly. We gave him a great Irish send-off, and amid the tears, and the occasional laughter, we toasted his life, his wit, his faith and his leadership. Thank you to all who attended one of the celebrations, and who sent us their love and condolences.

Canadian Election Suddenly Gets Interesting
The first three weeks of the campaign were fairly predictable, with little movement in the polls and the Conservatives teetering on the brink of a majority. The first spark in the NDP movement was Jack Layton's performance in the English and French debates, and then really kicked into high gear when Gilles Duceppe appeared at a provincial Parti Quebecois conference and committed the Bloc to pursuing another referendum. That irritated Quebecers who are as equally tired of the never-endum referendum argument. Besides the off-tone Gilles Duceppe campaign has not gone down well - alternating anti-immigration and multicultural rhetoric with angry shots at the NDP and the others has shown a not-too-attractive side to Duceppe.
If they can hold that support and really make big inroads agains the Bloc in Quebec, the NDP may be able to get close to 100 seats, blowing the Liberals out of the water as the Official Opposition. If they do that, the Conservatives will not be able to secure the majority they clearly need.

All of which means......
A very real chance that a combined NDP-Liberal alliance [led by Jack Layton] could secure more than 154 seats between them, vote down the Conservative minority government's new budget [or perhaps the Throne Speech preceding it] and be in a position to persuade Governor General David Johnson that they can maintain the confidence of the House. Look for a possibility of Liberals in the Cabinet - to steady the markets and bring experience into government. The NDP have never foresworn Coalition government. Even if it's not formal, it has to be solid enough to persuade the Governor General that it can hold more than a few months.

What could the Liberals do now? Batten down the hatches and save as many seats as they can with a massive get-out-the-vote in close ridings - particularly in vote-rich Ontario. For the Conservatives, they need to rally soft and right-leaning Liberals to come aboard their ship and then deploy machine-like get-out-the vote capacity in their ridings that are reachable. The NDP need to stop mentioning the hyper-sensitive Constitutional issue with Quebec. And of course, all of them will bombard us with commercials in a last-ditch desperate race to the finish.

And they say that Canada is boring????!!!!

I will be on CTV Power Play with Don Martin Wednesday, April 27th at 5:10 p.m. EDT. to discuss what's going on in the campaign and where it's headed.

Until next time......

Post-debate prognosis

2011-04-15T11:43:00.002-04:00

Welcome back to the post-debate, mid-campaign period of Canada's biennial election. With Stephen Harper's Conservatives still hovering just below the majority government threshold (usually estimated at around 42% of the vote) at around 39%, did the Leaders do enough in the English and French debates to 'move the dial'? That's what we will explore in this post.

The McLoughlin Media team has been very busy in recent days - with yours truly doing the pre-debate and post-debate analysis on CTV with Power Play host Don Martin, and my partner Laura Peck at the same time doing the pre-and post-analysis on CPAC (while also handling telephone calls from viewers with host Peter Van Dusen and the political panel).

So, who won the debates? By any reasonable measure, Stephen Harper won the English debate by staying calm, cool and collected and avoiding any gaffes. According to the Nanos Research post-debate analysis, the numbers for Mr. Harper rose noticeably. However, in terms of best performance - it was clearly Jack Layton who impressed the most - for his attacks on both Harper and Ignatieff and positioning himself as a credible alternative to the status quo. His body language, eye contact and tone of voice were excellent - which was remarkable considering that he was standing on his feet with a broken hip for two hours!

For Michael Ignatieff - even though he came across as too 'hot' for the cool environment - he scored some strong hits on Stephen Harper, although not many of them inflicted much damage. this was due to a tendency to ask three questions at a time, when he needed to focus on one at a time. However, he didn't do himself any damage, and in fact, more than likely gave some badly needed momentum to his campaign.

Gilles Duceppe clearly under-performed in the English debate, compared to previous debates. With the exception of a few good lines, he mostly repeated his attack points, but didn't really score well.

French Debate Analysis
Duceppe was back on solid ground in the French debate as he took on all comers. Jack Layton again performed the best, while Michael Ignatieff's performance improved significantly over the night before's English debate. He was calm, focused and used the camera well to address Quebecers with his vision. Both Ignatieff and Harper side-stepped skillfully the traps that Duceppe laid out - on imposing Bill 101's French-only laws on the currently exempted federally-regulated industries, as an example. Jack Layton was the clear beneficiary again of the debate as he showed he could hold his own against Duceppe's attacks.
Stephen Harper survived the debate without any self-inflicted damage by choosing to mostly ignore Duceppe's attacks. He must have had welts on his tongue as he listened to the former Communist (by his own admission) lecture Harper on Quebec's inability to score more hand-outs to match Ontario's bail-out of the auto industry etc. He refuted him on the issue of helping the forestry sector, but for the most part knew that it would be a mug's game to take Duceppe on directly. However, Harper didn't need to 'win', he just needed to 'not lose' and, even though he under-performed against his English debate, nevertheless that was to be expected. He just needs to hold those 11 Quebec seats and he may well just do that.

For my debate analysis on the English debate which I did for Carol and Paul Mott on the Motts radio show, click here and select 'April 13' podcast.

So What Will this Mean?
The real proving ground for Stephen Harper is Ontario, and he is neck-and-neck with the Liberals. If the Conservatives can grab more seats in the GTA (Greater Toronto Area) from the Liberals, that will be a key. [Hence all the focus on the so-called 'ethnic' vote, which is causing a firestorm of accusations about some of the candidates from the Tories and Liberals with questionable backgrounds.]

The second proving ground will be a possible pick- up of several seats for the Tories in Atlantic Canada - in particular from Newfoundland. The Prairie Provinces look solid for the Conservatives, with the NDP holding seats in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. British Columbia, however, appears to hold the key for the NDP and the Tories as they battle over seats. If the NDP get a bounce from Layton's two debate performances it should show up in British Columbia where they have organization, unpopularity of the HST and other issues giving them a potential edge.

Finally, if the Liberals bring back the nearly 1 million Liberals who stayed home last time out under Stephane Dion, they could make a solid gain in seats, thus holding the Conservatives to a minority. If there is some kind of 'scandal' to be unearthed, it could turn into a very close race.

The Helena Guergis Story
Speaking of 'scandal', the 'Helena Guergis Story' ["soon to be a ~~major motion picture~~ an episode of CBC's Insecurity"] has been resurrected thanks to a copy of the PMO letter to the RCMP falling into the hands of the CBC. It shows that there wasn't really anything to the allegations against her other than private investigator Derek Snowdy's hyper-ventilated rumours. At her live news conference on Friday morning, she was very effective in her heartfelt reaction to the attack on her character, and her emotional response to what has befallen her and her family was understandable.
She chose to avoid the trap of broadening her attack on her Party even though she is in a head-on battle with the highly qualified Dr. Kellie Leitch, the Conservative candidate. That will be an interesting riding to watch on election night. Will this story involve any more collateral damage to Stephen Harper? Probably not directly, but it certainly lost him another day of focus on his message. He made it clear he doesn't want her back, without mentioning her name. The photo of Helena holding her baby Xavier at the news conference will be hard to top, of course. That young boy has a future in politics! His party? To Be Determined.

Heading towards the finish line
As the Speaker has now cleared the way for Auditor General Sheila Fraser to release her final draft of her audit of the G8/G20 spending, expect that to be the hyper-focus for next week. So the momentum could slide against the Tories in the final weeks of the campaign - thus endangering their vision of a majority victory. The Liberals have moved to a thematic of 'fear vs. hope' to get the Tory numbers down. In my view, that won't work, as they have tried the 'scary Harper' theme in previous elections. Remember 'Tanks. In our streets. In Canada.'? Right now the frame is 'fear of the unknown (coalition) vs. 'fear of the known' (Stephen Harper). Stephen Harper has had five years in which he has been defined and the scare tactics rarely work when the public feels they already know him. However, their internal polling probably tells them it's all they've got left in their need to move the dial.

Who will form the Government? 50% chance it could be Ignatieff
If that happens, and the Liberals boost their seats, I believe that there's a 50% chance that Michael Ignatieff would be Prime Minister by the end of June - all without technically violating his promise that he won't have a 'coalition'. He won't need one; he won't need to offer Mr. Layton or Mr. Duceppe a place in his Cabinet.

IF the Opposition brings down the Conservatives on their budget (which they've already said they will), and IF the Governor General were to refuse Mr. Harper's wish to dissolve Parliament and call an election (which is possible given the threat of ongoing elections), he MIGHT be given the chance to gain the confidence of the House. He could do so with a letter of agreement covering a two-year period, without technically being a 'coalition'. And if that were the case, it would be.....Prime Minister Ignatieff. Do you think this is in the back of his mind - and Mr. Harper's? How about the front of his mind? And Michael Ignatieff's for that matter. Why do you think there is such a focus by the PM on getting a majority? The real tip-off will be on May 3rd. If there is no call by Liberals for Mr. Ignatieff's early departure, it will be because the negotiations will already be underway.

So, it's still ridiculously early to predict, but stranger things have happened - such as right after the 2008 election, for that matter - because, hey, welcome to Canada!

See you soon.
Barry

Campaign Craziness

2011-04-07T22:58:00.002-04:00

Welcome back!
All the focus in Canada is on the election campaign while in Washington, the focus is on trying to keep the government's doors open and the revenue flowing..... Are we having fun yet?

The Conservatives have weathered about three solid days of media coverage on the ousting of two young women who were given the heave-ho from a campaign event by the RCMP. This led all newscasts at least two nights running, which means it really was the most important newsworthy event in the world, or it's a perfect example of the loss of proportionality by the media. You decide.

Prime Minister Harper finally apologized to them today which puts an end to the "controversy". In the meantime the Liberals had their own controversy - a 'white supremacist' candidate was given the boot by Michael Ignatieff which only threw them off their message for one day. However, a second candidate - Liberal candidate John Reilly from Alberta after making 'unacceptable comments about a sexual abuse case' decided to keep him on - thus throwing him off message for a second day. In my weekly gig on CTV's Power Play as Don Martin and I discussed some of these matters and the ads posted on websites by the Tories and the Liberals: CTV Power Play April 6th .
Debate Preview
Not surprisingly the polls don't indicate much movement so far, but wait until the debates on April 12th (English) and April 14th (French) and then I think we will see some dislodging of the 'don't know' and 'undecided' swing voters. Having coached many leaders for debates, each leader has to define clearly their goals, core messages, key positioning, and be able to get their messages across under fire.

In a nutshell, Stephen Harper has to survive, while Ignatieff has to introduce himself to voters as he has been sharply defined by the Tories over the past year. Jack Layton has to present himself as a clear alternative to the status quo. Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe has to merely show up in English (where he always exceeds expectations) but most strongly deliver in French on the second debate - positioning himself as the 'only alternative' to the federalist parties.

In today's Postmedia news I was interviewed about the strategies that the leaders will be employing in their preparation for the debates.

I was interviewed by Carol & Paul Mott on their radio program this a.m. on the debates & campaign controversies. [Click on April 7th podcasts and it's about 2 minutes in] http://lnkd.in/AMJPEV

In Washington, today's the deadline for negotiating a compromise over the budget. Failure to come to an agreement will mean the shutdown of key government offices, which will, in turn, hurt ordinary folks who depend on the government for help on their mortgage problems to their social security checks. If the Republicans don't come to an agreement, it will be 1996 all over again as they will be blamed for bringing on the pain and the President will be positioned as the one trying to fight on behalf of the middle class and the vulnerable. The President went on television last night and while his declared message was the differences have narrowed he reached beyond that to the messages about the 800,000 families who won't have a paycheck, the Americans who won't have the services they're counting on - passports won't be delivered, etc. the economic damage etc. - which clearly positioned the issue as going backwards because Washington doesn't have its act together".

Until next time....pay attention and stay very, very calm.

Here we go!

2011-03-30T15:30:00.002-04:00

Welcome back!
We've just returned from Greenville, South Carolina where Laura and I did a seminar. Although the weather was unseasonably cool, we nevertheless enjoyed the beautiful town and people.

The Federal Election Campaign is Underway
The party leaders are out of the gate quickly - if not entirely cleanly. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff instantly hit a roadblock when he refused to cleanly disavow the possibility that he would form a coalition government with Jack Layton's NDP. It took him several news cycles to finally get off the fence and state clearly that he is ruling out such a possibility. It does beg the question, "what was he thinking?" My view is he didn't think fully through what, in effect, he was asking voters to do? "Vote for me and I may/may not run the government with Jack Layton and a few NDP'ers in my Cabinet." Instead he didn't seem to realize that all he needed to say was, "If I am asked by the Governor General to form a government which can meet the confidence of the House, I would attempt to do so on an issue-by-issue basis. Mr. Harper himself has done this, as Paul Martin before him did, as Pierre Trudeau and Lester Pearson before them did. I absolutely rule out a coalition government." In effect, that's what he ended up saying, but why the agony in getting there?

For the Tories part, Stephen Harper spent the first few days hammering the Liberals over the "C" word, but once it settled down have turned their attention to their economic policies, which they know must be the ballot question if they are going to get a majority government.

Jack Layton and the NDP are having trouble getting traction through the noise between the Liberals and Conservatives. They are clearly targeting small business owners and consumers with their policies as they hit hard at the corporate tax cuts of the Harper government. His broken hip appears not to be too much of an impediment, even though he has clearly cut down on the number of appearances and has stopped worrying about photos and videos of him with his cane.

I will be appearing weekly during the campaign on CTV's Power Play with Don Martin. during the campaign. My second appearance is this evening at 8:15 p.m EDT, so I hope you can tune in. Last week's appearance can be found here where pollster Nik Nanos and I examined the communications challenges facing the leaders.

Anatomy of a Runaway 'News' Story
During the election campaign I will occasionally be looking at some of the more egregious news stories that fail the test of fairness. Exhibit 'A' is a Global News Winnipeg item which managed to insert its own interpretation into a story about Conservative MP Shelly Glover's comments about the Liberal MP Anita Neville who is running in a neighbouring riding. The National Post did an excellent job dissecting the 'non-gaffe' . Actually, the reporter missed the real news in the piece, in which Shelly Glover, after telling the reporter that she wasn't going to reveal the name of Neville's opposing Tory candidate as there was no 'candidate of record' at that point, ended up revealing his name anyway. Also Glover declined an opportunity to do a Global Winnipeg interview to respond to the 'story' and waited until the next morning to clarify her remarks on CJOB radio. She should have known to move immediately to set the record straight.

What should be noted in the story is that the Global Winnipeg reporter and the news anchor Peter Chura introduced the word 'age' into the story in the first place - interpreting Glover's comment, "she's passed her expiry date" as referring to her "age" and "too old for the job". This was low-hanging fruit for the Global news team and they were determined to pluck it. They also made a feast of it the next day by constructing a phoney 'poll' of its viewers on Global Winnipeg's website, misrepresenting her remarks, as follows:

What do you think of Glover’s comments toward Neville?

Glover wasn’t referring to Neville’s age.Glover’s comments were ageistGlover went too far by saying she had “passed her expiry date.”She’s right, Neville is too old to be an effective political leader. [NOTE GLOBAL'S SELF-REFERENCING VERSION OF HER WORDS]

So this is a perfect media-generated news story that is a win/win for the media outlet in question. Even if they've mischievously hyped a non-story they benefit by milking it for days to come. Perfect!

It's still early days with lots of mud to be slung and real or imagined 'gaffes'. In other words, it's politics as usual. Let's hope that there is still room for real issues to be debated.

Barack Obama's Statement on Libya

After nine days of taking a 'shellacking' in the media over his Administration's actions in Libya, President Obama finally came forward with a speech to the nation making the case for getting involved in the Qaddafi horror show. How did he do? Great optics by delivering the speech with numerous flags as a backdrop at Fort McNair. He clearly wanted to present himself as the Commander-in-Chief and to that extent it was a compelling visual.

In substance, it bought him some time, but was not entirely satisfying for those looking for a clear set of principles. Clearly the President does not want to follow the Bush Iraq policy and yet wanted to be seen as taking strong action to protect innocent civilians. He continually pressed the point that the U.S. would only be involved in concert with other nations - which Canada, the U.K., France and others are contributing through NATO. The fact that the NATO mission is led by Canada's Lt. Gen. Charles Bouchard is helpful to the case that he made. He took a swipe at the Clinton Administration's failure to move on the Rwanda genocide issue until it was too late, and he took a shot at George W. Bush's Iraq policies. What will he do about the Ivory Coast, Bahrain or Sudan? Those, apparently, will be decided on a case-by-case basis.

So what is the end game in Libya? Well, that's still up in the air. It's clear Obama wants Qaddafi gone - preferably by imitating Egypt's Hosni Mubarek and quitting. But that won't happen. Mubarek is a realist, while Qaddafi is a crazed extremist. More than a minor difference, there. So then what? Stay tuned.

Until next time......

Happy St. Patrick's Day!

2011-03-17T21:53:00.001-04:00

PMOWelcome back!

Hope you had a grand St. Patrick's Day!

Here we are on St. Patrick's Day and I am in Philadelphia, the city that loves you back on a week-long seminar tour. So no real celebrating on my own here (no tears please) as Philly is always an enjoyable town to visit - especially when the weather is hitting the high sixties. The week began in Orlando, Florida where I was doing a seminar...and where all week it's in the high 70s and low 80s. Now I can take that anytime! I was sorry I couldn't get any golf squeezed in, but managed to enjoy a visit to Universal Studios. Every time I see it, they seem to be expanding. I will admit it here...I enjoyed the new Wizarding World of Harry Potter.
There I've said it and they say the first step of being able to move on is to face up to your weaknesses. So that's mine! One more day in Philly before heading back to Ottawa and turning around on Monday to fly to Atlanta. And the following week, it will be Greenville, South Carolina. So March Madness is well underway. [That's my excuse for the long delay since my last blog post..]
Japan's Disaster
The earthquake in Japan was almost too horrible to imagine and our thoughts and prayers are with the Japanese people as they struggle with this disaster. The nuclear reactor radiation emissions has revived the anti-nuclear forces and puts increasing pressure on the nuclear industry - and on politicians - to reassure the public about the implications for the aging nuclear power plants in Canada and the United States. This, in turn, puts increasing pressure on political leaders to position themselves on the issue.
Libya's Impending Disaster
Now that Gadhafi is moving to crush the rebels in his home-sweet-repressive-home of Libya, the U.N. Security Council is finally reacting with a much tougher set of measures - declaring Libya to be a no-fly zone and for member states to 'take all necessary measures' to protect civilians. After weeks of refusing to take such a position, the Obama Administration is moving quickly to make up for the West's mis-placed confidence in the rebels' chances of success. A fulsome forceful attack on Libyan forces by land,sea and air will be necessary now in order to drive Libyan jets from the air.
Although risking a larger scale event, Gadhafi, IMHO is unworthy of further consideration, given his terrorist attacks on civilians in the past (Lockerbie being the most obvious and disgraceful). Canada is moving six CF-18 fighter jets into position as is the U.S. with greater firepower. No doubt Britain will move quickly also. So, this latest Middle East eruption may only be a prelude to much wider action involving Western Allied nations. The trick will be not to escalate it beyond what the intervention needs to be. There is now little question that this will be a huge test for President Obama's international leadership. Much more to come...and keep checking those oil prices!

Which brings us to....another impending event.....a Canadian election.
It looks now almost certain - barring a miracle - that the government will fall next week. If the Liberals have their way it will be on a confidence vote the day before the planned release of the Budget. If the Conservatives have their way, and fail to construct a deal with the NDP on the Budget, then they will be happy to have the election on a Budget vote - but not on the non-confidence vote the day before.

With the increasing accusations and tension in the House - the latest being an attack upon former Deputy Chief of Staff to the PM, Bruce Carson - it is clear that the status quo cannot continue. Although the Carson allegations don't seem to amount to "a scandal", however the allegation can outlive the facts in the run-up to an election. The government appears to have erred on the side of caution by asking the RCMP to investigate the matter. It looks like a case of 'overkill' at this stage, but they can't afford to look like they're doing nothing. With fairly strong poll numbers putting him within reach of a majority government, it may well be that Stephen Harper has reached the limits of his tolerance zone. Even though the public doesn't want an election (and they rarely do, it seems), nevertheless when one is underway that issue quickly falls by the wayside.

So what's going to happen?
I'm so glad you asked. With the caveat that anything can happen during an election, an election at this time is clearly Stephen Harper's to lose. At the least it will be a minority Conservative government. Deep down, the Liberals hope to increase their seats. That is all they can reasonably aim for. If the Tories can keep control of the ballot question - which in the Tories' case must be "which leader do you trust to strengthen Canada's economy, cut taxes and create jobs?"If that is the ballot question at the end of the campaign, then it's hard to imagine that he will lose. However, if Michael Ignatieff can make the ballot question about the Government's 'secrecy' and 'ethics' issues, then it could be closer than one might think. That, of course, is why the all-out Liberal effort to bring down the Government on those issues is critical to their strategy.
The key for Jack Layton and the NDP is to position themselves as a clear alternative to the two traditional parties - read 'politics as usual'. They will have a chance to solidify or strengthen their recent rise in the polls. If he can't point to clear aspects of the Budget that he can claim responsibility for, then it's off to the polls he will go - even with his recent hip surgery. [Whoever said politics is a pain will be proved correct in Jack's case.]
Soooooo although prognosticating is almost always a mug's game in politics, right now it looks like there is no strong wave out there to give the Conservatives or the Liberals a majority government; however it is within the reach of the Conservatives with a well-run error-free campaign.
And that's it from me. Until next time....

Commenting on Campaign Ads

2011-03-01T10:10:00.000-05:00

Hi there! I thought you might be interested in my comments yesterday on CTV's Power Play on the latest TV commercials by the NDP and Conservatives in this pre-campaign period. As an aside, it's looking more and more like an election is in the offing in Canada. Barry on CTV's Power Play .

From Politics to Media to Rebellions

2011-02-24T23:59:00.004-05:00

Welcome back!
We've been extremely busy the past month since my last posting - lots of travel and seminars. Laura and I spent a few days in San Francisco and the Silicon Valley combining work and play - tough job, but somebody's got to do it!
50/50 Chance of Spring Election in Canada
In Canada, the volatility of the electorate still leaves up in the air the question of whether or not there will be a spring election. Up until two weeks ago, it looked much more certain, with the Harper Conservatives up 13% in the polls. However, with the Harper government still shy of a majority - and with their 13% lead in the polls tightening to 5% - possibly due to the controversy surrounding Minister Bev Oda - is a spring election now more likely or less? For Stephen Harper, he is no doubt looking at it through his calculus - go now before other possible 'distractions' cloud the picture, or wait until he can slowly and methodically build the foundation for a stronger and less volatile voter universe? Momentum is critical in politics and the Liberals know they will have to consolidate and build on their 'uptick'. So is this the start of the Liberals' resurrection story, or is it a 'dead cat bounce'?
In the meantime, will we be seeing this photo in upcoming Liberal ads?

Bev Oda grabs a smoke.

[A cautionary note here. As Bev Oda recovers from retina surgery, it might well be seen as a low blow, which could backfire on the Party that is tempted to use it. Shades of Jean 'I can't help it. God made me this way' Chretien in his clever response to a PC campaign commercial in 1993 which seemed to focus on his disfigured face.]

Understanding and reaching your voter universe
In any event, all parties have to understand and reach their voter universe, while pulling away enough of their opponents' soft supporters to fashion victory. Take a look at this voter profile chart to understand how that voter differentiation will work and how voters can be reached through media channels.
Obama's Recovery....so far
Meanwhile, Barack Obama has rebounded strongly in the polls since the Democrats' November 'shellacking'. What's the reason for this? First, in a whirlwind of legislative successes in the lame-duck Congress, he managed to get what he wanted on issues from 'don't ask, don't tell' to extension of unemployment benefits - thus avoiding the deadly label of 'weak and ineffectual' which attached itself like a deadly barnacle to Jimmy Carter. The Administration's ability to succeed legislatively in a minority Congressional situation will be extremely problematic, so the President will have to position himself clearly and strongly with the American people who are still angry and worried about their economic future. In the end, even though there is no magic bullet when it comes to debt, economic growth or jobs, he must be seen as having a clear set of solutions with the energy, focus, compassion and competence to lead America through the choppy waters.
The Power of Social Media
It's abundantly clear that social media - notably Facebook® and Twitter® - have transformed the ability to foment revolutions against brutal dictatorships, empowering ordinary people, by letting them know that they are not alone. This phenomenon is here to say, so other dictators...watch out!

"My media advisor is in big trouble!"

Did you catch Qaddafi's 'media availability' to prove he hadn't left the country - while holding that dainty white umbrella? It said more than he ever intended about the perception of his 'craziness'.

I was quite impressed by a Libyan ex-pat who said in an interview as he headed back to check out his family in Libya, "don't call Qaddafi mad. He's not mad - that lets him off the hook. He's an evil criminal." Well said!

The Courage of Journalists
Finally, hats off to the courage of journalists covering the rebellions ...among them, Laura Logan from CBS to the ubiquitous Anderson Cooper, to many more from Canada, the United States, the U.K. and from so many countries around the world who have been risking their lives to get the stories that the world needs to know. Speaking of Laura Logan, when academics and commentators try to use such a brutal assault to further their own theories on their Twitter feed, it can be quite pathetic.

I hope you enjoy the Oscars. I have it on good authority that Qaddafi will not be rooting for The Social Network!

Until next time....

The Rules for Going Negative

2011-01-31T15:09:00.000-05:00

Welcome back!
To the land of snow and freezing temperatures, and as we dig our way out of winter's offerings, right about now we start to dream of heading south, once it reaches the intolerable level, or 'March break' as it's known. It's easy to get into a negative 'funk' at this time of year....something to do with Vitamin D deficiency, I believe.

I was happy to see The King's Speech win all those SAG Awards. Not only was the movie enjoyable and the acting by Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush terrific, but it gets at a sensitive subject of overcoming one's barriers in life - no matter how exalted one's life appears to be. As a kid who had a stammer - although not a stutter - I have always had a great empathy for people with speech impediments or communications difficulties. [And probably contributed to my chosen field of coaching executives and others to communicate more effectively.]

Speaking of movies, I presume most of you have seen the highly enjoyable "The Social Network' and its tale of intrigue and disloyalty behind the runaway success story of Mark Zuckerberg? Ironically, half way around the world, Facebook® is playing a role in the revolutions underway in Egypt [as well as Tunisia and Yemen.] The people have become empowered as they learn that they are not alone.

If you get a chance, check out the always compelling Bob McKeown of CBC's The Fifth Estate as he uncovers the extent of the Mafia in Canada, in The Death of the Don - about the killing of Nicolo Rizzuto in Montreal. Thanks to brave journalists and authors, along with highly dedicated police specialists, they serve to remind us of this dangerous menace in Canada and the United States (let alone Italy and Sicily).

You Too Can be a Pundit!
It seems that our television and radio outlets have gone pundit-crazy. If you're thinking of becoming a TV pundit, check out this clip of the BBC interviewing a cab driver who had shown up applying for a job, only to end up on-air as a putative IT expert. What is amazing about this video clip is not only that he pulled it off, but that the BBC host/interviewer didn't seem to notice! See, there's hope for everyone!

The Launch of Negative Political Ads in Canada
For those of you who may have caught the interview I did last week on the CBC National with Wendy Mesley [first news item] , you would have seen me commenting on the ads launched by the Conservatives and the Liberals. The Conservatives are employing a two-pronged strategy to position themselves and the Opposition parties. Their goal is to position Stephen Harper as the hard-working steady leader toiling away on Parliament Hill while the world outside goes to hell in a hand-basket. In the Tories attack ads on Michael Ignatieff, they aim directly at Michael Ignatieff, with the tag line, "he didn't come back for you." Those spots represent a return to the old "just visiting" attacks on Mr. Ignatieff. If it worked before (which it did), they are going back to their greatest 'hits' [pun not intended]. The attack ad on NDP Leader Jack Layton links him to the failed attempt at a coalition government within weeks of the 2008 election. They continue to bring up the spectre of a coalition with the separatist Bloc Party. Again, that strategy got them out of a jam two years ago, so they are following the rule, 'go back to what works'.

The Liberals on the other hand are using the tagline "Harper's Canada" as they attack the government for the F-35 fighter jets and the planned corporate tax cut.

So let's say that you are in a political campaign and wondering about the effectiveness of negative, 'attack ads', what 'rules' should you keep in mind?

The Rules of Engagement for Negative Attack Ads
1. The ad has to resonate with the public's perception of your opponent. For example, don't try to paint your opponent as a stumble-bum who is totally incompetent if the polls indicate he/she is highly competent. [For example, Stephen Harper scores highly on competence but may be vulnerable on other perceptions.]
2. Don't distort the truth - otherwise you end up on the defensive and it will backfire on your Party or candidate.
3. Don't over-reach. The Tory attack ad on Jean Chretien in the 1993 campaign was seen as crossing the line from 'tough' to 'mean' as it appeared to be a personal attack on his dis-figured face. [Chretien's response really stuck the knife in, when he said in media interviews, "I can't help it. That's the way God made me." Ouch!
4. Keep the focus on policy - not on personality. Both the Liberals and the Conservatives are hitting hard on the other's leader. But the lines start to blur the more each hammers the other.
5. If you don't have anything nice to say...speak directly into the camera. The Tea Party brought out Rep. Michele Bachman [R-Minn] for their Response to the State of the Union, but bizarrely was advised to look into their website camera - not the pool camera. Decide for yourself if that was a wise idea? This same rule would apply if planning a negative attack ad.

Until next time....stay positive!

Update from Washington D.C.

2011-01-21T18:02:00.004-05:00

Welcome back!
It was two years ago this week that we were in town as volunteers on Inauguration Day and by coincidence were back this week in Washington D.C. for some meetings at our office. It turned out to be perfect timing for several reasons.

First, we attended a terrific panel discussion at the Newseum on Pennsylvania Ave., called, "Canada-U.S.: Best Friends or Perfect Strangers" - in conversation with Macleans Magazine. Broadcast live on CSPAN 2 in the U.S. and CPAC in Canada, it was ably hosted by Peter Van Dusen, the evening featured Canada's erudite and highly effective Ambassador, Gary Doer, Macleans columnists Paul Wells and Andrew Coyne, along with author and commentator David Frum, Senator Pamela Wallin, 'Scotty' Greenwood, Executive Director of the Canadian-American Business Council and the Hudson Institute's Christopher Sands.
The essential outcome of the discussion?
Americans don't really know Canada - but freely admit it. While Canadians are very confident that they do know America, but don't know as much as they think. Also, we are at times "two nations divided by a common language." Pamela Wallin told the story of attending a high-level event in New York when she was Canada's Consul General there. The Canadian politicians were proudly proclaiming that Canada had tabled legislation to deal with the terrorist threat (post 9/11). The Americans attending were furious and quite put off at this news. Pamela figured out it was because in Canada, when legislation is 'tabled' it means it's presented before Parliament. In the United States, it means that it's been put off to some future time. [Actually it's very similar to a flare-up near the end of World War II in a meeting among Churchill, Roosevelt and Prime Minister Mackenzie King. It was King that figured out that the word 'tabling' was the cause of the problem.] There were lots of keen insights into the relationship.
Highlights About the Relationship Between Canada and the U.S.
1. When Canadians complain about the 'thickening' of the border [impeding the flow of goods and services] the Americans tend to think that's a good thing (which Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano is reported to have said, after she was first appointed). So Canada needs to change its vocabulary (see 'tabling' discussion above).
2. The reality of media coverage is the old 'if it bleeds, it leads' and Canada gets hurt by that as it is not nearly as controversial.
3. Although the two countries have many similarities, Canadians like being different from Americans.
4. Canadians can sometimes come across as thinking they are better than Americans (besides hockey, of course) - health care, education and other social programs etc. However, there are many myths (Michael Moore) as Paul Wells said - that Canadians leave their doors unlocked at night....no guns....etc. are simply not true.
5. The 'framing' around the border issue has shifted under the Obama Administration from 'security trumps trade' to 'climate change'. Canada needs to make a better case for the work it's doing on climate change - otherwise Canada's heavy oil products may be replaced by those ethical leaders Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria or Saudi Arabia.
I asked a question about what the media could be doing differently or perhaps what new media models could be developed to focus more on the relationship between the two countries. A lively discussion ensued. You can find it on CSPAN 2 on the web
It's being repeated as well on CPAC.ca here: Canada and the U.S.:Best Friends or Perfect Strangers
Commenting on Negative Political Ads
Speaking of media, I was on CBC's The National last night analyzing the pre-campaign ads. So check it out at: www.cbc.ca/thenational (first item) analyzing the Conservative and Liberal pre-campaign ads.

Remembering Sargent Shriver

Laura and I dropped into Holy Trinity Church in Georgetown to pay our respects to Sargent Shriver, and ended up meeting most of the Shrivers and Kennedys attending. I admired the way they put everyone at ease in a very down-to-earth way. They have a great appreciation for Canadians - particularly as Canada was the first country where they brought the Special Olympics. Governor Schwarzenegger told Laura and me that one of the reasons he has a very soft spot for Canadians is that it was two Canadians -the Weider brothers - who helped him leave Austria and start his career over here. So his first post- Gubernatorial speaking tour will be in....Canada.
For journalistic buffs like Laura and me it was great to meet the legendary Ben Bradlee, former editor of the Washington Post, who was most gracious in his comments - and looked surprisingly spry. He reminisced that the first time he set eyes on Sarge Shriver - it was in Wisconsin - and he was struck by how he looked like he was this great-looking charismatic guy - had stepped out of a Brooks Brothers ad - remembering every detail of what he wore. Not bad for a guy into his eighties!
The whole event had a somewhat nostalgic feel to it, as yesterday was the 50th anniversary of JFK's Inauguration and Sarge Shriver was an important player in the Kennedy Administration.
Until next time...

Leaders in Troubling Times

2011-01-12T23:59:00.004-05:00

Welcome back.
As the world has responded with shock and sadness over the terrible events last weekend in Tucson, I can only echo those profound feelings of loss mix with deep appreciation for those who were lost and for those who were injured, including Congresswoman Gabby Giffords who was struck down doing her job by reaching out to her constituents.

Watching the speech of the President in Tucson, and the video post on Sarah Palin's website prompts me to explore the qualities of a Leader that are called upon in the wake of such a tragedy.

The Role of a President as a Nation Mourns
The first President in recent memory who was forced to rally a nation after a national tragedy was Lyndon Baines Johnson. LBJ's speech to the nation after Air Force One touched down at Andrew's Air Force base on Nov. 22nd, 1963, was succinct, spoken from the heart and with humility asked for the help of God and the American people. Simple, but powerful: LBJ speaks to the nation after Dallas

A leader has to hit the right tone and the right message in such difficult times. Presidents are called upon to try to make sense of the senseless, to bring the nation together and to find hope in times of despair. Ronald Reagan managed to do that after the Challenger explosion: Reagan comforts the nation
He was gentle in tone, sensitive to the young people who watched it live, and hopeful about the future of the space program, but his tribute to the courageous astronauts who lost their lives was a classic - deft, etched in historical context, and 'slipped the surly bonds of earth to touch the face of God' was a powerful closer. [courtesy of Canada's Pilot Officer John Gillespie McGee's High Flight by way of Peggy Noonan.]

Bill Clinton was referred to - not without admiration - as the 'Mourner-in-Chief' because of his uncanny ability to reflect the feelings and aspirations of communities in pain. His visit and speech in Oklahoma City after the bombing of the Federal Building killed 168 people almost single-handedly raised him up from his near death-bed mid-term election. At the same time he lifted up the country with the power of his rhetoric. Bill Clinton at Oklahoma City 1995

The best speech that George W. Bush ever gave was at Ground Zero a few days after the horror of 9/11. In many ways it was not Presidential in the traditional sense, but his ad lib remarks really hit the mark - not just with the workers there - but with the public glued to their televisions looking for some sense that America would rally from that terrible day. George W. Bush with the bullhorn

Which brings us....to Sarah Palin's Missed Opportunity
Within hours of the shooting, the usual suspects came out of the woodwork trying to smear others - in particular trying to link Sarah Palin for her 'targeting' of Gabby Giffords, among others, in her political ads. Of course, this did leave her susceptible to such attacks by her critics, which obviously triggered her to post a video she titled 'America's Enduring Strength' on her Facebook page. This would be classically known as a 'missed opportunity'. Instead of keeping her focus on the victims of the shooting, and the chance to pull the nation together, she went in the opposite direction, capping her counter-attack with the now-infamous 'blood libel' phrase.

She should have been advised that she is only preaching to the converted with such a defensive video - it seemed to be more about her sense of hurt more than the victims' pain. She needed to rise above all the noise and accusations and speak from the heart as a mother, a former Governor and as a national leader.

Obama had a 'sense of the moment'
With his Tucson speech, Barack Obama was able to speak to and for the American people, while paying tribute to the victims, their families and the 'heroes'. He knew what he had to do, and he did it with passion and eloquence. Other than being somewhat lengthy, it will stand the test of time as a Leader doing the job that the people hope he will do when they are most in need. Never be partisan. Never let your anger trump your sorrow. Never let your personal issues trump your public responsibilities. If Sarah Palin were to take a deep breath, study that video and learn from it, it would really help her become a leader that can inspire a nation in troubling times.

A 'Next Generation' Leader Speaks
In case you missed it, Giffords' aide, Daniel Hernandez did a phenomenal job of speaking to what the tragedy meant. He politely declined the label of hero and conferred it on the first responders, the nurses and physicians and others. I'd say the young man has a big future in politics, don't you?

Until next time .......

Happy New Year!!!

2011-01-04T21:44:00.000-05:00

Welcome back to my annual New Year's blog post. I hope you had a relaxed and enjoyable Christmas and holiday period. I know I did! It was my perfect idea of a vacation - no commitments, no schedule, go to some movies ('The King's Speech', 'True Grit') read some books ('The Confession', 'Resistance') hang out with family and friends. Perfection!
Below you will see my 'Quick Predictions for 2011'. But first, to finish off 2010 once and for all.....
I remember back in the day looking forward to Esquire Magazine's annual 'Dubious Achievements' year-end edition for their tribute to the strange, perplexing people and events of the year. So, to keep that legacy alive, I will be looking back with my mini-version of.....

Dubious Achievements of 2010

1. The reality TV series pitch from hell..... Fox TV's new sequel.....'Sarah Palin's 'Alaska Wimps'.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's popularity is slipping in her home state, according to a poll released Tuesday. The survey from Democrat pollster, Public Policy Polling (PPP), showed only 33 percent of Alaska voters have a favorable opinion of the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, while 58 percent have a negative one. Out of 10 states polled, only Massachusetts gave Palin a more negative rating (27- 68 percent.)

2. Dad's Cookies proudly announces the worst video contest entry in our history....Stephen Duckett, President and CEO of Alberta's Health Services is forced out following a disastrous effort to force feed a reporter one of his cookies. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DxeCK5Ne_Q
3. "She had that KKK look in her eyes - kind of reminded me of David Cameron."
In the final days of the 2010 British election, Prime Minister Gordon Brown meets the voter from hell on the campaign trail but then adds the death knell comment into the waiting microphones. Gordon Brown meets a 'bigoted woman'
4. If a two-bit Mafia gangster can't trust Santa, what is this world coming to?
Honest Santa I've Been a Good Mafia Hood!
5. "Coming soon to a nightmare multiplex near you, Aaron Sorkin's "The Sweaty Hoodie"!
This is a classic example of how not to do a media interview: Mark Zuckerberg Sweats Buckets in Media Interview
Quick Predictions for 2011
1. There will be no federal election in Canada - the Government doesn't want one, and the Opposition don't either no matter how much they bark, scratch and paw the ground.
2. The Republicans in the House will flex their power and if they're not careful will find themselves in a similar position as the Newt Gingrich 'Contract with America' Congressional class of 1994-96 (which enabled Bill Clinton to come back from 'irrelevance'). President Obama may well do a 'rope-a-dope' strategy lulling them into threatening to shut down the Government, creating gridlock, thus throwing themselves offside with the American people (who just want government to work and their politicians to listen to them without playing partisan games).
3. The first politician who says, 'what's a trillion'?, while talking about the U.S. debt of $14 trillion will be vilified. [The fact that no one has any clear plan to reduce it will go largely unnoticed, of course.]
4. The internet has already passed television as the main source of news for those between 18 and 30. For those between 30 and 49, they are on track to follow suit - if not late this year, then certainly in 2012. Internet set to be main source of news-PEW Research
5. As more mistakes are made in front of microphones by politicians, government officials and executives, there will be an increased demand for media training. And that, after all, is a good thing!

I wish each and every one of you a Happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!

Until next time...
Barry

Announcing the 2010 McLoughlin Annual Awards

2010-12-16T23:42:00.000-05:00

Welcome back!
This is the last post of the year and the time to announce the 2010 McLoughlin Annual Awards - to recognize truly extraordinary performance beyond the call of duty.
First to what's been going on in my world. I just survived the most challenging seminar of the year - to my son Liam's Grade 12 writing class. It turned out fine - at least Liam said "you didn't suck" so that's high praise in our family! We're all getting ready for Christmas - in which we aren't going anywhere and the greatest gift will be that we aren't programmed to do anything! What a concept! To wake up in the morning and the toughest question you face is, 'what do you feel like doing today?' I love it. For me, here's my personal list, that I call:
It Wouldn't Be Christmas Without....
1. Charlie Brown's Christmas.....the tradition, the tone, the droll sense of humor....it still stands up after all these years. Even our kids watch it.
2. It's a Wonderful Life...all these years later it still hits the mark for all the family.
3. Plum pudding and fruit cake....sorry I'm still a sucker for both of them.
4. Midnight Mass.... although we usually go to an earlier service. There is nothing as special as that.
5. Opening presents on Christmas morning. It brings back so many memories. Every family has different rituals. Ours is the same as when I was a kid. You got to open one present on Christmas Eve and couldn't open any of the others until everyone was down. Then you take turns. It still works for kids....it's called 'delayed gratification'. What a concept!
And Now....the 2010 McLoughlin Awards..... for Extraordinary Performance Beyond the Pale
1. The ' by the seat of your pants' award - for surviving two votes of confidence in the Italian Legislature in spite of pay-off scandals, underaged women, allegations of drugs and a divorce from hell goes to..... the one and only Silvio Berlusconi who appears to follow the adage of politics, "if you're going to be bad, be a complete disaster! So far, so good!
2. The 'getting hit from both sides ' award goes to.... Barack Obama...who is accused of both inflicting his own agenda on the American public at the same time as he is accused of too much compromise with Republicans. Maybe he'll figure out which one of those accusations he wants to plead guilty to?
3. The 'I know it's hard to believe but I'm more popular than ever' award goes to...Sarah Palin....who defies all conventional wisdom by quitting the governorship when the greatest criticism of her was that she has no experience. Who needed to be taken seriously but chose to do a reality show! Whose malapropisms on her tweets go viral...but she survives it all. Will it get her to the top? No, but she could make it one of those races where you can't take your eyes off her just in case you miss the latest howler!
4. The 'leaking my ego all over the media' award goes to Wikileak's Julian Assange....whose name and face have dominated the news in recent weeks. Somehow he gives us the impression that it's what he's wanted all along.
5. The 'you don't have to love me, but I hope you really won't like my opponent' award goes to Stephen Harper, who, no matter what happens, seems to edge up in the polls against Michael Ignatieff's Liberals. Go figure!
6. The 'Gulf will clean itself' award goes to the one and only Tony Hayward. Unfortunately for BP, that story still isn't over as the Obama Administration has just launched a lawsuit against them.
7. The 'cry me a river' award goes to John Boehner who cries when he's happy, cries when he's sad and cries when he sticks it to the Obama Administration. And he never once streaks that orange make-up?!
8. The 'I may have missed my flight but I became a viral star instead ' award goes to the don't touch my junk traveler, John Tyner.
9. The 'best impression of a journalist' award goes to 'This Hour Has 22 Minutes' for its terrific take-off A Very Chantal Christmas.
10. The 'sticking it to left-wing pinkos riding bicycles' award is presented unanimously to Hockey Night in Canada's Don Cherry when he 'inaugurated' new Toronto Mayor Rob Ford. Somewhere there's a bordello missing a curtain!

I want to wish each and every one of my loyal readers Merry Christmas!!!!

Until Next Year......

The Al Qaeda Pizza Guy was in our living room!

2010-12-10T14:20:00.001-05:00

Welcome back!
I'm back from a week of golf in Naples Florida and rarin' to go. There's lots to discuss in the world of media, but here are a few morsels to chew on as we get ready for the Christmas season......

Harkat shows media GPS tracker device

The Al Qaeda Pizza Guy - soon to be a minor motion picture....

First of all, the matter of the ruling by Judge Simon Noel of the Federal Court yesterday in which he deemed that Mohammed Harkat was indeed "a member of bin Laden's network, has engaged in terrorism and remains a danger to Canadians." My little story in this matter is that Mr. Harkat was our pizza delivery guy a number of years ago. Perhaps this could be the opening scene in a screenplay?

Pizza Delivery Scenario - Repeated Numerous Times

Chevy Chase as Barry

Johnny Depp as Harkat

Starring in.....'Al Qaeda Pizza Guy' ..... coming to a multiplex near you!!!!
Int. Front Hall - McLoughlin Home - Night

The door bell rings.
Barry : "I'll get it!"
BARRY, 40ish, strikingly good-looking, peeks through the front window.
Barry: "Who ordered pizza?"
No child answers, as usual. He opens the door and is confronted by an amiable, very presentable MOHAMMED HARKAT, 40ish, putative Al Qaeda pizza man.
Barry fumbles in his pockets for cash. As usual, they are empty.
Barry: "How much? $21.50? Really? Sorry I'll have to go get it. Okay, please step in."
Barry leaves to go upstairs and is gone for a minute or two.
He returns to find pizza man right inside the house, peeking into the living room down the hall.
Al Qaeda pizza man: "Nice house".
Barry: "Thank you. Here's $25.00. Keep the change."
Al Qaeda pizza man: "Thank you sir. See you again."
[Producer's note: This only becomes cause for suspicion years later when we learn through the media that Mr. Harkat's wife, Sophie, says he couldn't speak English, which explains some of his contradictions and um..explanations to security agents interviewing him.]

What if I told you that the same scenario was repeated regularly with our friends in the diplomatic community? It turns out they were from the highest levels of target countries, shall we say. Which meant, in the easiest way possible, he was able to have access to their living rooms too!!!

The real hero in this story is Mr. Harkat's wife Sophie who should be hired by a major public relations firm to provide the kind of strategies that she was able to put together to keep his plight in the news through rallies, posters, media stories and political support for his release.

British Columbia NDP Go Mad......Liberals Rejoice

The ' Grasp Defeat from the Jaws of Victory' Award goes to..... the NDP Party of British Columbia!

BC NDP's Carole James Steps Down

After years in the political wilderness facing the leaderless B.C. Liberal government who have crashed and burned on their imposition of the wildly unpopular HST tax were setting the stage for the next election. Facing a revolt by 13 caucus members frustrated by the tight control and the business-friendly policies of Leader Carole James, Carole fought back but eventually resigned her leadership. Carole is a solid centrist who knew what the NDP needed to regain the trust of British Columbians. Although certainly understandable, one can't help but think that if she had stayed the course, those unhappy campers would have nowhere to go and would have had to fish or cut bait.

The outcome will be a dual set of leadership races for the NDP and Liberals, resulting in a new leader for each, and quite possibly a resurrection opportunity for the Liberals. It kind of reminds me of the old Russian proverb: 'what's the difference between genius and stupidity? Genius has its limits."

'Top Judges Giving Up Silence to Embrace the People's Court'
An article in yesterday's Globe and Mail by Kirk Makin, in which I am quoted, explores the subject of the importance of appropriate engagement with the media by the judiciary. As someone who trains judges from time to time, it's worth taking a look at, in my view, if only to understand why judges should care about the media.

Saying Farewell and Thank you to Kate Murphy

For the past four years we, at McLoughlin Media, have been very fortunate to have had Kate Murphy as our Executive Assistant and media relations assistant. Her ability to multi-task and to handle almost everything that Laura and I have given her to do is legendary. Alas, talent like hers can not stay hidden long, and she has accepted an offer by the Department of National Defence to go to work for them in their strategic communications office. She has a terrific career path ahead of herself and the Government is fortunate to have her, as she has energy, brains and talent to burn. And, she is a terrific person to work with - a 'can-do' attitude and a sense of humor that makes it fun. Good luck and thank you Kate!

Welcoming Sarah Gardner

While we will miss Kate greatly, we are very proud and pleased to announce that Sarah Gardner, who has loads of political, media and corporate experience for her young age, will be taking over the position starting next week. Her contact email is sarah@mcloughlinmedia.com. So don't be shy about contacting her starting on Monday.

Until next time.....

Another year older and.....

2010-12-02T23:44:00.001-05:00

Welcome back!
I write this from a beautiful town with a name that resonates around the world....Naples.....Florida, that is. Three friends of mine twisted my arm and invited me to our second annual golf week. Technically, that's a misnomer, as we had our first trip just this past April. So, in actuality this is the second semi-annual tour. While my golf game is a continuing challenge, it has proven to be just as much fun as the first one. This time, we are celebrating my birthday - which we did just this evening with a great dinner and, as usual, stories, lies and laughs that make friendships such a rich fabric to one's life.

All of us are parents and we got to talking about how one's life is a combination of such elements that combine hard work, luck and opportunities taken and missed. So I will share a few thoughts on the subject at the end of this posting, so if you want to click off before that, you can do so without missing some of the - shall we say - 'substantive' post.

An Election Looms in Canada
With the results of the recent by-elections in Canada in which the Conservatives won two out of the three (one they held and one they took from the Liberals), in combination with rising poll numbers for Stephen Harper's Tories, point to a Spring 2011 election. Why? Because politics and momentum are almost everything in politics. The public perception of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff are very weak, and can only improve over time - especially as he lays out a more solid policy framework - which helps to define him after allowing himself to be defined by the Conservatives in the early years.

There are a few stumbling blocks on the road to such an election in a minority government scenario. One of the major ones being the legislation that the government put in place to have fixed elections (something I have always felt was an artificial construct in a Parliamentary system that will often end up being more honoured in the breach - especially when a national Parliament is increasingly a minority situation. However, the easiest way to deal with it is to put in place a budget which would challenge the Opposition's ability to accept it. Given that the Liberals clearly don't relish an election anytime soon, such a Budget would have to be cleverly crafted to avoid looking too cute by half, or to violate the principle of the fixed election law.

One thing for all election hawks in the Conservative Party to keep in mind, however, is the volatility of the electorate. Given a strong message, and a campaign to match, it could be an even draw with the Liberals, opening up a number of post-election scenarios - as happened after the recent British election when the Conservatives joined up with the Liberal-Democrats to form government.

A Year Away From the Iowa Caucuses
The post-midterm elections positioning is underway as the Republicans and Democrats spar over everything from government debt to saving social security etc. etc. It's painfully clear that there is no 'common ground' and, while the public say they want bipartisanship, that message is absolutely not reaching the politicians in Washington.

So what does this mean for the coming 'pre-positioning' year in American politics? On the Republican side, Sarah Palin will obviously have to make up her mind - to give up the easy money, fame and television shows for the daily slog of running for President under a huge magnifying glass focused on her flaws and family. It may become almost inevitable. The momentum is clearly building and she has to realize that the bubble she is in won't last forever. So the betting is that she may well go for it. Her latest comments - "we gotta stand with our North Korean allies" notwithstanding.

Mitt Romney is working hard to build his brand and base in order to sustain a strong race. The first thing people think of when his name comes up, unfortunately, is his Mormon religion. One would hope that such a slight against a candidate belongs to yesterday (shades of JFK). The fact that he has already run a national campaign and been a successful governor in a liberal state should go some way to having offset that stigma. His real challenge now is to try to attract wind from Tea Party sails without being swamped overboard by them. The thing about Romney is that no matter what he tries to do, he just can't seem to connect with voters in an emotional way with his core values emerging. So, his appeal is limited by definition but he will make a strong campaign for the Republican nomination.

President Obama has a huge challenge in this year - facing a Republican controlled Congress - and a still weak economic recovery. He has to be hoping for two things - a Sarah Palin Republican nominee and, for safe measure, a third party candidate, such as Michael Bloomberg, to divide the vote. [Ross Perot's candidacy in 1992 ensured a Bill Clinton victory over George Bush]. Notice when the President was asked by Barbara Walters what he thought of Sarah Palin he said that he didn't spend any time thinking about her. A safe answer and may even be true.....for now. But one can tell he clearly relishes the prospect.

Some Birthday Musings [The part that you can feel free to skip]
It's only a day on the calendar, but as one goes along in life, a birthday is a time to reflect on where one has gone - hopefully with some insights for our kids and anyone else who really cares. So here goes:
1. Work harder than anyone else.
2. Recognize opportunities when they come along. If they don't, create your own.
3. Although you can't always tell where certain paths lead, have faith that somewhere down the road those paths will intersect and give you a unique journey. [I have always been a great believer in serendipity - something I inherit from my father.]
4. Be thankful for every day you have. Each day really is a gift; so try not to waste even one.
5. Keep in a learning mode. It keeps your brain young and your life interesting.
6. Figure out what you love to do and try to construct a career that enables you to get paid for what you love.
7. Be good to people on the way up. You will absolutely meet them on the way down - or when they're on the way up.
8. Every time you're tempted to say something negative about somebody, bite your tongue. You won't regret it.
9. Remember that we're all more than the sum of our parts - physically, mentally and emotionally. We are infused with a spirit - we just need to search for it and nurture it. That spirit will help you overcome almost anything that life throws in your way.
10. Stay humble. It may come in very handy someday.
11. Find a kindred spirit in life to enjoy the journey. [I have been so blessed in that regard.]
12. Finally, if you're going to have musings, always have an even dozen. It has such symmetry.

Until next time......

Remembering JFK

2010-11-22T13:48:00.006-05:00

Monday, Nov. 22nd, 2010

Welcome back!

With all the work, it's a bit longer a delay than I would normally like since my last post. Although perhaps a welcome respite for some of you? I try not to follow the political rule of Ottawa and Washington... " if you don't have anything nice to say.....stand closer to the microphone!"

Much is happening in our political and media worlds at home and abroad. First, some quick hit reactions on what's going on:

1. Although already awash in media over-kill, I am genuinely surprised and pleased to see how well Prince William and his 'commoner' fiancee, Kate Middleton handled the media swarming as they made their announcement. What really struck me was their seemingly effortless news conference with flashes exploding in a blinding assault. Their television interview afterwards was done with such ease and thoughtfulness that one can't help but wish this young couple well, and a happier time than William's parents had. The fact that it will be a great boost to Britain's economic fortunes at this impossibly difficult time is huge. [If they would honeymoon in Ireland, they could spread the wealth a little further....]

2. While on the British monarchy, but I was really impressed also by Prince Charles' documentary on NBC, Harmony. He is clearly passionate and knowledgeable about the need for a balanced approach to development and the environment, he did so in an intriguing and thoughtful way. The fact that NBC ran it in primetime on Friday nights was clearly the negotiated counter to agreeing to a one hour interview/profile the hour before with Brian Williams on NBC.

However, there was a Classic interview mistake he made which triggered media over-reaction in the British press. He was asked...get ready....a speculative question: Brian Williams: "Does the Duchess of Cornwall become the Queen of England if and when you assume the throne?" What did he do? Everybody altogether now....He answered it! Prince Charles: "That could be." Ready class, what should he have done in answer to that question? Absolutely right, he should have said, "I am not going to speculate on that." Or even better he could have borrowed a line from that brilliant British mini-series, House of Cards, Ian Richardson's character, Francis Urquhart says to a reporter (to whom he really wanted to get the message out there, but disown it cleverly): "You might very well think that. I couldn't possibly comment." Sometimes, life should imitate art!

By the way, if anyone still thinks that Camilla will remain 'The Princess Consort' once he becomes King, please check yourself in to one of those places where self-delusion is treated - you know where Charlie Sheen should go?

3. As a student who attended university in the 70s, and then again in the 80s, I am continually mystified at the ongoing erosion of freedom of speech on our campuses of higher education. How did we get from the vision of university as the 'marketplace of ideas' to one of 'the marketplace of pre-approved ideas'? Who are at the forefront of these movements? Take a look at this latest outrage experienced by the Globe and Mail's Christie Blatchford

Why, it's the 'student unions'. By the way, I would love to see an exposé on what these student unions spend and how they spend it. Carleton University, my alma mater is demanding that they turn over their books to the university before they get one more dollar of their 'entitlements'. Good for Carleton!

Speaking of Carleton, however, they have had a long-running battle with the 'student union' who has crafted a 'constitution' that it claims allows them to decertify a pro-life group as a university club, and will only let them back in if they back the student union's 'pro-choice' stance. This is the same student union, mind you, that a few years ago chose to cancel the cystic fibrosis Shinerama campaign because they alleged that it only benefits white males. After the predictable outrage, they reinstated it.

Regardless of one's views on the issue, students and alumni/ae should remind the little totalitarians of group think that the old Soviet Union had a constitution too, but it didn't stop the Kremlin from imprisoning millions in the Gulag for violating it. To quote Voltaire (who is credited with the quote even if he didn't say it), "I may not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it". Imagine if that came back into fashion on our campuses? Might it be a harbinger of a brighter future for our society?

4. Check out my latest article in the Ottawa Citizen - having a chuckle over the announcement by Ottawa's incoming Mayor-elect Jim Watson, that rather than having the taxpayer pay for the inauguration catering costs, he has asked Tim Horton's [Canada's number one donut chain] to cater the event. I couldn't help it but it does open up untold opportunities for public-private sector partnerships: It's Not a City, it's a Brand!

Remembering JFK

Finally, today marks the (can you believe it?) 47th anniversary of John F. Kennedy's assassination. Can it really be that long ago? I remember like yesterday the principal of our Toronto school, Spenvalley Drive Public School, Mr. Kiesinger, coming into our classroom just at 2:40 p.m. [Eastern time] and asking us if we wanted to hear the news on the PA system? Well, this had never happened before - so of course we were all eager to hear! "This just in from Dallas Texas. John F. Kennedy, the 35th President of the United States is dead."

Although we were only in Grade 7, the news was shocking and devastating in a way that I had never experienced before. I had trouble processing the thought. Images raced through my mind. We had just seen that picture of him in the Oval Office with John Jr. peeking out from the door in his desk! His triumphant tour of my homeland, Ireland in June! His riveting 'Ich bin ein Berliner' speech at the Brandenburg Gate. It was in this very classroom that we had ducked under our desks to protect us from a nuclear bomb when he faced down Kruschev over Cuba. I recalled that I had blurted out something about Kruschev to my classmates as if he could possibly have anything to do with it. [Although that was before the world had heard of Oliver Stone, but I digress.] He had stood up for civil rights. This just can't be true!

In many ways, JFK's legacy has only grown in the nearly five decades since his death, but it is as palpable as it was before our principal turned on the radio that crisp November day. We were sent home early and it was the first and only time I saw my mother watching television, crying, in the daytime. But I was a cool kid. I was 12 years old - too old to cry! So I quietly picked up my Toronto Telegram canvas bag and slipped out to deliver the newspapers, along with my brother, Stephen. On the cover of every Tely we delivered was a picture of JFK in Fort Worth Texas the day before, looking for all the world like a leader with his whole life ahead of him. The 'cool big boy' didn't get too far before he cried.
Here's how TV covered the shocking news

So here are a few quotes of John F. Kennedy, an imperfect man, but an inspiration to a generation:

"No one has been barred on account of his race from fighting or dying for America, there are no white or colored signs on the foxholes or graveyards of battle." John F. Kennedy

"We are not afraid to entrust the American people with unpleasant facts, foreign ideas, alien philosophies, and competitive values. For a nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people." John F. Kennedy

Until next time...

What we remember....

2010-11-09T20:57:00.000-05:00

Welcome back!
We had a bit of fun in last week's posting, as I didn't feel like weighing in with instant analysis done by everyone else. There is no question that the tectonic plates in the political world are shifting to the right. In almost every demographic the Democrats fell back significantly and in nearly historic proportions. There is little question that the electorate is fed up with politicians who they feel don't listen to them; don't respond to their priorities - jobs and the economy right now trump everything. The economic meltdown shook the confidence of the American people. The bail-outs of the Wall Street firms and the bonuses of their executives enraged them.

Can Barack Obama recover in the next 18 months? Based on those numbers, you'd have to say 'no'. However, one of the most potent tools a politician has is the quality of his opponents. So, if the Republicans can show focus and discipline, and avoid doing and saying outlandish things, they have a real chance, with a strong candidate, to make the 2012 election a true revolution. Following his 1994 drubbing, Bill Clinton was blessed by the Newt Gingrich-led Republican's virtual shutting down of the U.S. government, throwing them offside with the American public. Clinton began to look, well, Presidential, and turned the tables on Gingrich. One Republican Congressman, however, has just mused about doing that very thing. Ah...the importance of remembering the past, right?

What we Remember

Remembering our Veterans

The 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month marks the most emotionally powerful two minutes of the year as Canadians in every community and in every school and place of business remember our fallen soldiers in the two World Wars, Korea and Afghanistan - as well as the peacekeeping troops.
As some may recall from last year's post, I have a soft spot for our Veterans (my dad was an R.A.F. veteran in the war) but as a parent one can't help but think about the reality that so many of them were as young as 18 or 19 with their whole lives ahead of them. Their sacrifices were almost always far from home in other people's countries.

A fabulous singer whom I'm proud to say I know- John McDermott - does such a phenomenal job with The Green Fields of France that I thought I'd post it again. If that doesn't bring a tear to your eye, and pause to consider what's really important in life, then what would?

Following through in Afghanistan
By the way, I'm pleased to see that Defence Minister Peter MacKay and the Government of Canada is reconsidering the complete withdrawal of all troops from Afghanistan in 2011 to leave 600 to 1000 troops in a strictly training role with the Afghan army in Kabul. That, I believe, is the appropriate way to ensure that the sacrifices made by the 152 soldiers and their families will not be for nothing and can help ensure meaningful peace and protection of the civil society rebuilding Afghanistan. It's clear they would get Opposition support for it.

Conan O'Brien Re-Emerges
As with a lot of people I'm happy that Conan O'Brien is back on the air - well basic cable anyway. The key for him will be not to compare himself to David Letterman or Jay Leno. Rather his reference point is Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert. [Stewart has already been edging out both Letterman and Leno of late.] Starting at 11 p.m. on TBS will be an added bonus as he gets a jump-start on everyone else. [Although CTV is delaying his show until 1:00 as they are already committed to.....The Daily Show and the Colbert Report.] He has already proven that he knows how to use the twitter-verse to create a community around him - something that neither of the traditional show hosts have been able to accomplish.
However, it might serve TBS's PR people to sort out that confounded thing called Daylight Savings Time. Monday night they sent out his opening monologue a full hour before he ended up delivering it!
Although Conan's Cold Opening was classic.

Until next time......

The Day After

2010-11-03T17:09:00.000-04:00

Welcome back!

The President's "Shellacking"

Well all you political junkies (including myself) must be a little bleary-eyed today after staying up late watching the 'Rebuke to Obama' as a number of media headlines have framed it.
Everyone has their political views on the good, the bad and the ugly of the campaigns - note the 's' in that word - but I like to focus on the communications aspects.
And because politics and show biz began to merge years ago, I thought I would do it in the form of:

'The Campaign 2010 Awards'
1. The John Connolly Award for "most money spent in the pursuit of a political office to no avail" goes to...Meg Whitman for spending upwards of $190 million of her own money to come up short in the California Governor's race against the victorious Jerry Brown [53% to 42%]. The lesson here being that even one thread that is successfully pulled can be your undoing and no amount of money can overcome it. Her hiring, dismissal and handling of an 'undocumented' housekeeper left her on the defense, alienating Latino voters and throwing her campaign off its game plan at a critical time.

2. The 'who says getting your name on the ballot is important?' Award goes to Alaska write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski who looks safe to win the Alaska Senate seat against the Sarah Palin Tea Party candidate Joe Miller once the write-in ballots are opened and read. However with a 41% to 34% lead it means that: a) people in Alaska paid attention b) knew how to spell her name and c) took the time to go to the polls and cast their vote. Am I wrong, or is Alaska a model for all of us to be engaged citizens? Just asking.

Paladino (R) Beats Himself

3. The 'Be careful what you email, joke about, and who you threaten' Award goes to Tea Party-backed New York Republican Gubernatorial candidate, Joe Paladino, the upstate businessman who could write a textbook on how not to comport oneself as a candidate, and who was wiped clean by Andrew Cuomo, son of the former three-term Governor, Mario Cuomo, whose famous dictum was "campaign in poetry, govern in prose". Wasn't much poetry in Andrew's campaign but at least he didn't make himself the issue - his opponent did all the damage that needed to be done.

4. The 'who says it's over for career politicians and resume enhancing?' Award goes to Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal who won a late round against WWE Owner Linda McMahon, the Tea-Party backed candidate whose (possibly too) hard-hitting commercials attacking Blumenthal for lying seemed to turn voters off.. [ He repeatedly claimed that he had served as a Marine in Vietnam when actually he was in the reserves stateside] As well, exit polls indicated that they didn't like her, and they thought wrestling was too violent! Positioning herself as an outsider and Blumenthal as a career politician weren't enough to cover her own resume problems - laying off workers, dodging taxes, killing legislation on steroid use etc. that plagued her, thus preventing her from controlling the message in the campaign. [Note to Connecticut voters - wrestling is not real!]

I'm not a witch. I am you.

5. The 'don't use your opponent's 'bait' words to defend yourself on TV commercials' Award goes to...the one and only Christine O'Donnell in her Delaware Senate race. "I'm not a witch. I am you" will go down in the annals of political ads as the worst commercial ever in a campaign.

#h*! My Mayor Says...New CBC Pilot?

#h*!My Mayor Says

Meanwhile, the election of Rodney Dangerfield look-alike Rob Ford as the next Mayor of Toronto rocked the pundits, media and the downtown Toronto urban sophisticates like nothing in recent history. I couldn't help poke some fun at it, in this satirical article, published in the Ottawa Citizen a few days ago.

Until next time!

7 Rules for Winning Campaigns

2010-10-25T09:55:00.000-04:00

Welcome back!
It's been a crazily busy week but it's happening at a great time of year - the Fall. Golden leaves, crisp air, Major League Baseball Championships, and the sine qua non of life.....elections! I just came back from a trip to a truly hidden gem in America....Michigan!! Specifically, a town called Traverse City. Small, liveable, quintessential American Main Street, great restaurants, an opera house and a totally renovated movie house - paid for by one Michael Moore. [Regardless of what one thinks of his films, he knows how to recapture the glory years of cinemas from the looks of it.]

Give Cousin Eddie a Permanent Canadian Christmas!

Canada is a much sought-after haven for refugee claimants and the Harper government introduced this week its planned fix for dealing with the scourge of human smuggling. Too late, it seems, to deal with Hollywood refugees Randy and Evi Quaid who arrived in Vancouver on the run from California police and - after being arrested by police in Canada - promptly appeared before an IRB (Immigration and Refugee Board) judge claiming refugee status. So as an act of gratitude for his iconic role as Cousin Eddie in National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation, I suggest we give Randy and Evi complimentary refugee status. Heck, it's just as credible as some of the stories the IRB hears:)

BP still doesn't get it.
New CEO Bob Dudley, by all accounts a very sensible man, appears not to get the power of communications in the handling of a crisis. He still believes that the media and rivals did BP in on the Gulf Oil spill! the simple response to that is that BP wounded itself with its mishandling of the spill response, public expectations, contradictory messages, poor Congressional testimony etc. The media and rivals, smelling blood, moved in for the kill. One would hope that the new CEO would have learned this. Check this item out.

Change is in the Air - in Ontario and across the United States
With voters trooping to the polls across Ontario today, politicians are going all out to get their voters to the polls. With low voter turnout, many races will depend on the GOTV [Get-Out-The-Vote]apparatus. Robo-calls over the weekend inundated voters from Mayors to Councillors to School Board Trustees.

All polling indicates that maverick Councillor Rob Ford over former Ontario Cabinet Minister George Smitherman - in a shocking upset - will win the Toronto Mayor's race and that veteran politician Jim Watson will win the Ottawa Mayor's race over incumbent Mayor Larry O'Brien. We'll save post-debate analysis for the next blog posting but see below for 7 Rules for Winning Campaigns.

All the media coverage would have one convinced that the Democrats are going to have their heads handed to them on Election Day. No doubt that is true. Anger, resentment, frustration and fear are all potent mixes for big change. Not all Democrats are in trouble - look at what's happening in California, with Jerry Brown surging ahead of Meg Whitman. Incumbents are particularly vulnerable and any candidate who smacks of accepting the status quo is in big trouble. When 'change' is on the menu, the status quo is toast.

For many voters the ballot question in times like this is often, 'who speaks for me'? The Tea Party activists are roiling the waters very effectively, but have they peaked too soon? They were surging in the primary campaigns in states like Delaware, but when it comes to the main race, every day is the dawn of a new error. Delaware Republican Senate Candidate Christine O'Donnell's I am not a witch. I'm you commercial being Exhibit A of political incompetence.

The problem with disdaining professionalism in political campaigns is that every little thread of an error is pulled by the organization that is professionally run. No one said life is unfair, but the earlier that candidates realize that the better. Professional doesn't mean selling out, it means doing it right. If it means distorting your positions to satisfy focus groups and pollsters, then it has crossed a line. However, if a candidate is well trained and ready to undergo lightning-fast aerial bombardments and below the water-line torpedo attacks [to my sensitive readers, pardon the war-like imagery, but when you are in the middle of such a campaign, that is exactly what it feels like].

All of this to say, here are...

7 Rules for Winning Campaigns

1. Understand your voter universe - who are potentially reachable by you and your campaign? Can they be motivated to move to you and based on what issues and messages? Being ignorant about that is unforgiveable and will be punished on election day.
2. Motivate your base, but don't be a slave to them. Your base is critical to your momentum. Sometimes, however, your base may be poisonous in your ability to grow beyond them. Understand them and respect them, and if you must take positions which are different from them, then explain yourself clearly and directly to them.
3. Reach your voters numerous times through traditional and social media. The recent victor in the Calgary mayor's race - who made national news as the first Muslim mayor of a big city - was able to mix the two brilliantly.
4. Never interrupt a hanging. [Notice the different imagery?] When your opponent is busy with self-inflicted damage, step back and don't create other news.
5. Have a clear message and drive it relentlessly. In the twittered, information-overloaded universe, it is extremely difficult to drive one message home so don't scatter your messages. Make sure the message is understood, succinct and matters deeply to your voter universe. Frame the message effectively - don't message on the defense [see Christine O'Donnell video above].
6. Manage perceptions well. The voters rarely get to actually know a candidate. They form their impressions through the media - traditional and social media. So what is the perception you want them to have of you? Down to earth...HOAG (helluva guy/gal)...straight-shooter....on my side. Lecturing people about what's good for them never has worked and never will. The voter has to relate to the candidate but doesn't want to be told what to do.
7. Be extremely well prepared. Know the issues. Get training in media, speeches, door-to-door, debates. A candidate will be tested every hour of every day. Trying to learn all that in the middle of a campaign is very difficult [although not impossible :)] You are asking the voters to put trust in you, so you have to define yourself before your opponents do. This dual definition has to start early and then continually throughout the campaign. Remember you must define yourself and your opponent.

So those are just some thoughts that one may ponder as we get ready for Election Night coverage.

Until next time.....

The Heroes' Journey

2010-10-13T16:32:00.002-04:00

Welcome back!
Amid all the negative news around the world, it is so uplifting to experience the miraculous events at the mine site in Chile as the Los 33 miners are safely evacuated after 69 days in a dark tomb half a mile underground.

Crisis Management Tips from the Rescue of Los 33

1. Keep the team together - the miners were pulled together as a team working for the same goals, with no one person more important than the other.This will be essential in the days to come as they face the media. [Another reason why media training of the miners was a good idea IMHO].
2. Assign specific tasks - each miner was given a responsibility - a medic became the doctor, another was responsible for the transfer of the packages up and down the shaft, a chaplain, the foreman in charge, etc. The miners organized themselves into three groups in different parts of the mine and operated like shifts to proved 24/7 contact.
3. Manage their expectations - they were told that their rescue may take until Christmas. Much discussion had taken place as to whether or not to tell the miners that. In the end, they felt that being honest with them was the best policy to create trust.
4. Prepare Plans A, B and C - rather than put all their eggs in one basket. [Although why they didn't just shove golf balls down there and hope for the best is beyond me :)]
5. Anticipate and organize. Underground and above ground, they drew upon top resources and got everyone working together in the best planned rescue operation ever.
6. Keep the miners physically and mentally active. They not only needed to stay in shape for the physical challenges to come (such as fitting inside a 28"wide capsule) but also to be mentally alert in order to withstand the ordeal and be better prepared for the world when they were rescued.
7. Make communications a priority. It was the key to the rescue operation and to morale. Being able to communicate with their families and supplies have been delivered two-ways through the boreholes in special tubes nicknamed 'palomas' or 'doves'. Video updates from the miners raised the morale of families and the Chilean people - which was also essential to the successful management of the emergency.

Los 33 - Heroes' Journey

Our televisions and computer screens are filled with a story that - if someone had pitched it as a movie - would be laughed off as ridiculous. That got me to thinking what is it about this event that has so captured all of the world in their incredible journey?

First, it has all the necessary elements of drama. I have been studying in recent years, Joseph Campbell's Hero's Journey the template of which is often used for movie screenplays. Here are some of those steps in that journey and how the miners' story has followed its core elements.

Step 1. The Call to Adventure - the point in the story when the characters learn that their lives are going to change. When the mine collapsed the miners' world absolutely changed - instantly and forever.

Step 2 - Refusal of the Call. Often when the call is given, the future hero refuses to heed it. In this case, they had no option. But on an emotional or psychological level they may have had trouble genuinely believing that their could be a journey out of their nightmare. The first seventeen days - in which they were out of contact and presumed dead, it would have been completely understandable if they had fallen into despair.

Step 3 - Supernatural Aid - once the hero has committed to the quest, consciously or unconsciously, his or her guide and magical helper appears, or becomes known. From what we can see on our television screens, it was not just the engineering or science that they men relied upon, it was the spiritual, mental and emotional resources that they had to draw upon. When contact was made a tiny shaft of hope was sparked.

Step 4 - The Crossing of the First Threshold - this is the point where the person actually crosses into the field of adventure, leaving the known limits of his or her world and venturing into an unknown and dangerous realm where the rules and limits are not known. When they began to communicate with the outside world, they became aware of the almost unfathomable journey that they were about to embark upon.

Step 5 - The Belly of the Whale - represents the final separation from the hero's known world and self. It is sometimes described as the person's lowest point, but it is actually the point when the person is between or transitioning between worlds and selves. In the case of the miners, the separation has been made and is being fully recognized between the old self and the potential for a new world/self. It is often symbolized by something dark, unknown and frightening [is this a screenplay or what?]. By entering this stage, the person shows their willingness to undergo a metamorphosis, to die to himself. [We are starting to learn of the miners' renewed commitments to family, and to make their lives truly meaningful, rather than taking them for granted.]

There are twelve more steps on the Hero's Journey. But the last four steps are worth noting here:

Step 9 - Rescue from Without - in Chile's case a throughly professional team approach from the rescuers brought them home.

Step 10 - The Crossing of the Return Threshold - the trick in returning is to retain the wisdom gained on the quest, to integrate that wisdom into a human life, and then maybe figure out how to share the wisdom with the rest of the world. This is usually extremely difficult.

Step 11 - Master of the Two Worlds - for a human hero, it may mean achieving a balance between the material and spiritual. The person has become comfortable and competent in both the inner and outer worlds.

Step 12 - Freedom to Live - mastery leads to freedom from the fear of death, which in turn is the freedom to live. This is sometimes referred to as living in the moment, neither anticipating the future nor regretting the past.

Of course the stories of the miner with a wife and girlfriend only fuels further interest in the story. But let's not lose sight of the hero's journey and what it truly means about the human spirit and the power that all of us have to transform our lives. We don't need a mine collapse to make such a transformation, but it often takes something cataclysmic to do it.

With all the talk about movie deals and sponsorships, little wonder that the 'Los 33' story will be coming to a movie theater near you!

Until next time....

When we make 'inartful' comments

2010-10-07T15:55:00.001-04:00

'Welcome back!
Well it looks like we are finally getting some of that beautiful Fall weather we have been so missing in these parts. How about where you live? All I have seen in the media - besides political muggings - is floods, hurricanes and the occasional tornado!

I have been busy as always, but managed to squeeze in a round of golf last week, and am hoping to get another round in this weekend.

I also managed to do a few interviews during the past week - one was my comments on David Johnston, Canada's new Governor General and on Stephen Harper, Michael Ignatieff and Jack Layton: Barry on CTV's Power Play

'Inartful' Comments

Last week, CNN's Rick Sanchez, the (now former) host of Rick's List made a few CTCs [Career Terminating Comments] about Comedy Central's Jon Stewart which his bosses at CNN thought were so incendiary that they fired him in record time. [Even faster than their hiring of that other paragon of virtue Eliot Spitzer...but I digress.] His comments speak for themselves and you can judge for yourself if they were worthy of the firing offence: Rick Sanchez melts down

In my view his comments were stupid - and as he himself called them 'inartful' - they weren't quite up to the standard that one would hear on Fox News or by talk radio hosts across the fruited plain. It might have been better to pair him up with Jon Stewart and watch him be annihilated live on national television. At least Rick faced the music and apologized to Stewart. Jon Stewart Takes Rick Apart

So here is a rule for making 'inartful comments:

1. Never attack a satirist especially if a) he is intelligent and witty and b) has his own show.

So until next time...be careful about who is the target of your 'inartful' comments!

Tips for Avoiding Celebrities

2010-09-22T10:15:00.000-04:00

Welcome back!
Autumn has finally arrived - my favorite time of the year! Maybe it has to do with the crisp weather (a bit crisper than I would ideally want so far); the trees changing colors (which my two teenaged sons are looking forward to raking....not!), and the ramping up of highly partisan vicious politics, which takes no prisoners.

Speaking of the tone of our politics today, it brings to mind one of my favorite lines: "If you don't have anything nice to say, make sure you speak clearly into the microphone."

Every once in a while we are handed a juicy story which just begs for a little jab. Check out my op-ed piece for the Ottawa Citizen today: Tips for avoiding celebrities

Until next time.... enjoy the season!

Eight tips for every politician

2010-09-14T14:52:00.000-04:00

Welcome back!
Well politics is in the air almost everywhere. Whether voting for mayor, city councillor, Congressman, Senator, Governor or Premier, there are some key communications concepts that every politician asking for your vote should keep firmly in mind.

Eight Tips that Every Politician Should Keep in Mind
1. Know what your message is. People have 'been there and done that' with blather. In one sentence, where do you stand on each of your key issues?
2. What do you stand for? In other words what is your positioning on the political landscape? For example, do you represent 'change vs. more of the same?' This should be wrapped into your 'doorstep pitch' or your positioning statement. If you can't say it in 30 seconds then you can't grab and hold the attention of the voter.
3. Always ask for their vote. Don't assume anything. Whether door-knocking, tweeting, at an all-candidates debate or at a speech, ask for their support, help, funds and VOTE.
4. Politics is about people. So don't hide behind technology. Get out and meet people. Be visible - even if you can't be there, make sure your surrogates are. I was in Palo Alto a few weeks ago, and Jerry Brown's team had a table at a street fair - signing up voters, selling campaign paraphernalia. Jerry wasn't around but that was okay. Meg Whitman didn't have a table there. Why not?
5. Make all your enemies deliberate. The above named Jerry Brown put his foot in it the other day - accusing Meg Whitman supporter Bill Clinton of lying about his record of cutting taxes. [Accusing Clinton of lying not only alienates Clinton supporters needlessly, but it's redundant!] Take a look at the video and read the critique by Time Magazine's blogger below it: Jerry Brown's gaffe
6. Everything you say and do will be captured and multiplied in the media. Just ask Ottawa's Mayor Larry O'Brien who right in the middle of his election campaign had to deal with this story: Mayor O'Brien caught on cellphone while driving
7. It isn't about you: it's about the voter. Speak from the voters' perspective - not your own. It's a lot better to find out where your voters are going, and jump out in front of the line than trying to create your own line. [Just ask former B.C. Premier Bill Vander Zalm who has re-emerged from oblivion to lead the anti-HST tax campaign in British Columbia]
8. Try not to come across as a pure partisan. Most people don't wrap themselves tightly in a party banner. They get that you may represent a political party, but in the end you have to resonate with them.

So watch carefully to see if the politicians asking for your vote are paying attention to any of the above. And remember, ask them questions, demand answers and get out to vote. It's a privilege that we should all hold dear.
Until next time!