Winners and Losers in Debates

Welcome back to my new blog format and post-debate(s) analysis.
It's the most...wonderful time...of the Year!!! Debate central!
First ....Canada.
The French language debate took place last night. Stephen Harper was under a 4-way barrage and emerged unscathed, if somewhat too muted. Clearly his goal was to stay cool, knowing he would be attacked vociferously...and that indeed came to pass. How did he do?
Click here from my CFRA radio interview this morning (October 2nd):
http://www.cfra.com/interviews/default.asp
"Madely in the Morning - 7:40am --- Steve Madely is joined by Barry McLoughlin of McLoughlin Media to discuss what he believes the leaders need to do in tonight's debate."
http://www.cfra.com/chum_audio/barry_mcloughlin-oct%2002.mp3

The English language debate tonight was a different experience. All of the leaders brought more of their 'A' game to the debate. Stephen Harper brought some passion with his cool demeanor this time out. He took opportunities to push back against Stephen Harper and did particularly well against Jack Layton by saying that he - alone among leaders - only went to publicly operated health clinics. Jack Layton had to admit that he went to the Shouldice Clinic - privately operated but publicly paid. Hhmmmm. The NDP are strongly opposed to private delivery of public health.

Elizabeth May of the Green Party was much better in the English debate. She was strong and succinct while connecting through the camera. Stephen Harper treated her courteously and gave her as much oxygen as possible (in order to take it away from Dion and Layton).

Jack Layton was much more effective also - except for that awkward moment noted above). He wasn't over-smiling and exhibiting tense and aggressive body language. He demonstrated just about the right blend of strength and personal warmth (except towards Harper).

Gilles Duceppe was quite effective as usual - and no doubt once again English voters will be pleasantly surprised at how reasonable he sounds, and his effectiveness. It won't help him directly in Quebec, but the anticipated media coverage will give him some resonance in Quebec among his francophone base.

So who won?
Not a clear winner, but some interesting outcomes, based on a report card scoring:

Stephen Harper, by not losing, speaking to his target voters, while still staying cool under fire.
Elizabeth May - really paid off on her English debate debut. Too much on the defence, but much of that is inevitable.

Jack Layton was able to find his voice and was able to shine in key moments - especially in the debate over the arts - a sensitive topic for the Harper campaign, which may well have hurt them, especially in Quebec.

Stephane Dion built on his better-than-expected debate performance from the night before and it may well help reverse the tide that had gone out in the first two weeks of the campaign.

Elizabeth May had the most obvious benefit out of the evening. She showed she belonged, she gave confidence to her supporters, and made a dent in the 'undecided' voters who may be thinking of strategic voting.

The real winner, hands down, was Steve Paiken of TVO. He showed a strong hand without spoiling the fireworks.

Vice Presidential Debate
Most viewers tuned in to watch a train wreck. They were pretty confident that Sarah Palin would add yet another Tina Fey opportunity. While she was shaky at times - especially on the role of the Vice President, and some awkward moments, she didn't make a fool of herself. She didn't lose votes, but probably didn't gain any either.

Biden Does Well....but Not Outstanding
Joe Biden avoided any verbal gaffes. He came in with high expectations and largely delivered on the promise. He won on substance; he did well on tone and manner. He was also able to avoid sounding condescending towards her - which was vital. Biden treated her as an equal. Clearly he is a tough guy to beat.

Palin Exceeds Expectations
Although she was occasionally evasive on the questions, and too reliant on her notes, Gov. Palin was surprisingly good on foreign policy and clearly comfortable on energy issues. Palin pretty well held her own and the sighs of relief can be heard in every Republican home in America...especially John McCain's. Her way of speakin' is an acquired taste - if ever- and her bashing of 'mainstream media' somewhat strained at this time.

Her tendency to exaggerate - the 'Obama/Biden raising the white flag of surrender' stuff is definitely going too far. When she does the hockey mom routine, it speaks to those whose top-of-mind question is, 'does this person understand me and our family?' She looked into the camera - as did Biden - and made connections with their target voters.

So Now it's up to McCain
The second Presidential debate on October 7th will be more critical than ever, if John McCain is going to turn this around.

Until then...hang onto your hats!
Barry

Volatility on the Campaign Trail

Hello everyone!

Wow!! Can you spell v-o-l-a-t-i-l-e?

Welcome back to my blog. This is a new format which I am trying out for this posting. If change is in the air, then why not in the blogosphere? A lot has happened in the past two weeks - in Canada and the United States. The stock market crash, followed by the failure of the bailout package has rocketed the economy to the absolute top of the public agenda. 

What will the credit crisis mean for the elections - North and South of the Border?

This has profound implications for both the American and Canadian elections. In the Presidential race, the conventional wisdom is that if the top-of-mind issue is foreign policy, then the race will favor McCain. If it is economic policy, then the tilt is towards Obama. 

That shift appears to already be underway. The failure of the Administration's package to pass the House, combined with John McCain's ''suspending" his campaign, the rapid turnaround in public confidence in Sarah Palin, have all led to a public perception that John McCain may not be the 'change' that they are looking for. 

This is one of those elections where programs such as Saturday Night Live can end up shaping public perception more powerfully than news programs.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/27/tina-fey-as-sarah-palin-k_n_129956.html

In the Canadian election, ironically, it seems to have strengthened Stephen Harper's position as a strong economic leader. Canada so far, seems to have escaped the debacle in capital markets, but Canadians know that when their largest trading partner goes into recession, Canada can't be far behind. 

The Conservatives are currently enjoying an 11% lead over the Liberals [Nanos Sept. 30 poll: 37% Conservative; 26% Liberal; 19% NDP; 9% Green]. However, they need to secure another 3% to grab the majority that the Prime Minister is now directly asking Canadians to give him. The Conservatives need to pick up more seats in Quebec and make a stronger inroads in Ontario, while pushing back on the surging NDP in British Columbia.

Another Bump in the Road for the Tories

 However, one of the most damaging stumbles that the Conservatives have encountered is the revelation that a speech Mr. Harper gave in March 2003 was a carbon copy of Australia's then-Prime Minster, John Howard. Quick action led to the resignation of his speechwriter. 

Will it be enough? Probably, but it is another bump in the road to a majority.

The Debates Will be Key

The first televised Presidential debate was the famous Kennedy-Nixon face-off in 1960. There wasn't a lot to separate the two on policy, but Kennedy looked Presidential, while Nixon looked sweaty and defensive. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ6FwuIuobA&feature=related

Gerald Ford's gaffe in the 1976 debate with Jimmy Carter, really did him in.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8rg9c4pUrg

Then the famous "there you go again" line by Ronald Reagan against Jimmy Carter in the 1980 Presidential debate seemed to take the wind out of Jimmy Carter's sails.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi9y5-Vo61w

The Leaders' Debate on Thursday night will have even more significance this week. Harper needs a solid, cool, unruffled performance. Dion needs to position himself as the clear and credible alternative to the Prime Minister, and needs to connect with the voter on the core pocketbook issues - rather than on the defence over his unpopular - and complicated - Green Shift proposal. If he allows Jack Layton to steal his thunder, he will look weak by definition. Jack has to look and sound strong and down-to-earth; not too revved up or over the top.

Elizabeth May is the great unknown. She could be great or she could totally blow it. She needs to speak to the voter at home, not get so caught up in the heated exchanges that she turns off people watching in their living rooms. Her greatest accomplishment was getting into the debate in the first place.

And then there's the French Debate

Duceppe will be impressive as usual, but it won't get him too many votes in Quebec, so for him it is all about Wednesday's (tonight's) French debate. In that one, both Harper and Dion are struggling to be the clear alternative to the Bloc. So there will be fireworks there too.

Previewing the Vice-Presidential Debate

The Vice-Presidential Candidates Debate is far more important than at any time in history. All eyes will be on Sarah Palin, who needs to recover from an ill-advised set of interviews with Charlie Gibson and, most recently, Katie Couric. She needs to be credible enough on foreign policy - unlike on Couric.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Vh6WDmb-Rc

 She needs to address the questions clearly and succinctly, and realize that a weak answer doesn't improve with length! 

She needs to admit that what she lacks in foreign policy experience, she makes up for in judgment, and a clear view of how a McCain-Palin Administration will act in a dangerous world and a global economy? How would they be able to secure jobs for Americans? How would they be different from the Bush Administration? What is wrong, in her view, with the Obama-Biden world view -especially on NAFTA and free trade?

She needs to be calm and cool, solid, and be capable of a counter-punch. But she shouldn't lead with her chin, as Dan Quayle famously did against Sen. Lloyd Bentsen.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-7gpgXNWYI

Biden needs to avoid sounding condescending and over-talking. 

When he really gets going, there is a slight disconnect between his mouth and his brain.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Glrnb_G34E4&feature=related

If he overtly attacks Palin, he will look like a bully. He will try to label her as unqualified and the Republican ticket as Bush's third term. She needs to keep her powder dry and then wait for her opportunity.

So let the fun begin!

Until next time.....stay cool and stay liquid!

Barry