Change vs. More of the Same?

Welcome back!
We are in the middle of crazy travel criss-crossing North America. Since my last post, Laura and I have been doing seminars in Edmonton, Alberta, Kelowna B.C., Washington DC, Los Angeles and Ottawa. Next week, Laura is in Nashville while I'm in New York and there are several stops in between. As a result, I have been somewhat remiss in my postings. However, it is the ultimate season for politicos and sports nuts everywhere, isn't it? The World Series is under way, hockey is in full swing and we're deep into football. It's sensory overload for people like me.
Canadians Choose Stability Over Change  
In Provincial Elections in Ontario, Manitoba, Newfoundland & Labrador and Prince Edward Island, the incumbent governments were re-elected. Although mostly by reduced margins and - in Ontario's case - the McGuinty Liberal government was reduced to a minority (by one vote...a 'major minority' as Premier McGuinty called it.) So what was the deal with those results? What happened to all the anger and the desire for change that many had anticipated?
In spite of pockets of anger - such as the 'Occupy' movement - Canadians could have been persuaded to change, if they felt that there was a strong alternative on offer that would benefit themselves, their families and their communities. For the most part, that didn't happen. Even though the Progressive Conservative parties and their leaders in Ontario, Manitoba and P.E.I. put up a spirited fight, they could not overcome one of the most powerful forces in politics - the desire to maintain a steady course in choppy economic waters.
There is no question that the voters in those elections are nervous - particularly as the Europeans grapple with their bail-outs; and the Americans' struggle with the debt, deficit, foreclosures and unemployment. Ultimately a voter will make one of three decisions when anxious about their futures: 1. Stay home. The majority of voters chose not to trudge to the polls and cast their votes. [By the way, I would love it if reporters were to ask the 'Occupy' protesters if they bothered to vote in the last election.]
2. Go with 'change'. That change must be compelling, clear. The Party and Leader must drive a message that you really care about. In these elections, it wasn't about taxes, it was about jobs and economic growth. There were big voter shifts in most of the elections, but not enough to topple the incumbent governments. Attack campaigns work, but they also require a solid alternative view that resonates with the values of your voter universe.
3. Stay with the Party and Leader who represents a 'steady hand at the tiller'. That was what the Conservatives under Prime Minister Harper did in the May federal election as they moved from minority to majority government, and it was what the winning Provincial Premiers did in their wins.  It is using incumbency for its maximum benefit - namely, to portray stability and a solid plan for the future. It's often labeled 'better the devil you know than the devil you don't' - and there is some truth to it However, the fact is that campaigns matter and the winning campaigns were able to use the 'air war' [ads and earned media] with a strong 'ground war' - with troops on the ground, door-to-door, telephone canvas etc.] In a solid campaign it all comes together.
What's at Stake in the Las Vegas Republican Debate?
The Las Vegas edition of the traveling Republican debate circus provides an important opportunity to test the ability of Herman Cain to gain continued momentum or fall back like many before him. Can anyone else move up the chain to stunt the seeming inevitability of a Mitt Romney nomination victory? As the Republican candidates fight for positioning, it's intriguing to watch the rising and falling fortunes of their individual  campaigns.
First Gov. Sarah Palin's slow flame-out as people saw more of her, they began to really question, and then conclude, that she was not Presidential material. Having just read The Rogue: Searching for the Real Sarah Palin by Joe McGinniss  like it or love it, it paints a picture that is unsettling to say the least. Rep. Michelle Bachman appeared to inherit the Palin mantle, rose quickly and then faded as her 'sound bites' began to reveal a lack of depth.
Then it looked like Gov. Rick Perry was going to be the one to take out Gov. Mitt Romney. After several lackluster debate performances, and one or two embarrassing events and comments, his star faded too - leaving businessman Herman Cain in a neck-and-neck race with Romney. [Although it's intriguing that Gov. Perry doesn't seem to mention his success in reducing the numbers of people sent to prison for minor drug offences, even closing prisons and getting people into drug rehab programs. Perhaps he has calibrated that it won't ingratiate him with Tea Partiers, but he has to remember that he has to build on that base, not just cater to it.]
Does Cain really have a chance of knocking Romney out?
Based  on the evidence, no. While he has an appealingly open charm and a lot of credibility in the business world, he is making a lot of rookie mistakes - joking about immigration 'electrical fences that could kill illegal immigrants'. He has a bold slogan '9-9-9' but he has not laid the groundwork for it well enough and has not addressed the problems with it. His proposed 9% flat tax for individuals and companies, along with a 9% sales tax are highly controversial but he has done nothing to alleviate the greatest attack - that his plan is unfair to those who are most vulnerable. Although he could offer a minimum threshold for his income tax, and a sales tax refund for low income people, he has not addressed how to make it more fair. Cain has to realize that as he nears the top of the pile, everything he says will be under the spotlight and there is no room for jokes about serious issues.

While Romney can come across as too slick by half, nevertheless, he has been tested on the national stage for six years. That experience and long-term exposure is critically important to a serious candidate. His Mormon religion is still an issue, but he has reached the stage where anyone [or surrogate, as Rick Perry has learned] who attacks his Mormonism does more damage to his or her favored candidate - than good. Romney's greatest vulnerability is that many still wonder what his true values are, as he appears to have shifted them based on his actions as Massachusetts Governor compared to today - particularly on health care. Romney is clearly the man to beat for the nomination. He just needs a steady, solid performance tonight - in keeping with his 'steady' campaign manner. It's not going to create excitement;  nevertheless he's beginning to emerge as a steady and clear alternative to President Obama.

And remember, steadiness and stability can be highly attractive in unsettling economic times!

Technology Companies in Crisis...RIM Learns a Lesson
For Blackberry users such as me around the world, it was a frustrating week. RIM had to learn again what so many organizations have learned the hard way. Get out ahead of the crisis. Make sure your CEO [in RIM's case, two co-CEOs] is visible. RIM sent out their Chief Technology Officer and held back on their CEOs until a day later. I got caught in L.A. without my Blackberry operating for a day. Although it was an inconvenience, many consumers were more angered by the slow communications response than the triggering incident. Again, another lesson to be re-learned.
 The Perils of Communicating Health Risks
Health care is a risk issue. How you handle difficult or controversial issues in the health care field must be handled carefully. The goal is to raise awareness so that the public will take action to reduce further risk, while avoiding inflaming. Questions have arisen about the handling of a potential health risk through lack of appropriate infection control procedures by a doctor and a public health clinic. The announcement by Dr. Isra Levy, Ottawa's Medical Officer of Health was seen by many to be inadequate as he withheld the name of the clinic and the nature of the procedure in his first news conference. That decision not to release that information while issuing the public warning raised criticism.  However, even though it was delayed by 48 hours, the proper information was released by the much-respected Dr. Levy and he ably defended himself before the media and City Council.  The lesson to 'get as much bad news out as possible - right away' would be helpful for all Medical Officers of Health facing similar challenges in the future. In this CTV National news item in which yours truly was interviewed, see for yourself how the issue came across [fast forward 4 minutes into the newscast].

Until next time, remember, what happens in Vegas....stays on YouTube!

From the Capitol to the Capital

Welcome back!
It's been a busy week or so in the McLoughlin Media biz, with business split between Ottawa and Washington DC....
where Laura and I attended the Nelson Mullins law firm's annual reception - as guests of former American Ambassador David Wilkins on the rooftop overlooking the beautiful U.S. Capitol. Politicos included Sen. Lindsay Graham (R. SC) and Rep. Edward Markey (D. MA) and a great time was had by all.
Presidential Speculation
Although we missed the launch of Sarah Palin's (surprise) bus tour, much discussion over the electoral landscape ensued. My prediction is that Ms. Palin will indeed enter, as she has been watching her 'Tea Party' base being wooed and captured by a number of Republican candidates who hope to capture their wind in their sails without capsizing their boats.

As of now, President Obama's election is the safe bet, particularly after the vanquishing of Osama bin Laden. Although with the debt out of control and unemployment stubbornly high, he would be vulnerable if someone came along and put forward a forthright plan to fix the economy, provide a solid health care policy and shows a galvanizing vision for the future. That almost begs for an independent candidate who isn't captured by Republican and Democrat party stalwarts who are going to ensure their leaders stay in their respective 'boxes'. Who is that? Probably the only one who would have a chance is New York City's mayor Michael Bloomberg who has the money and the credibility to mount a third party candidacy. Is he interested? Never say never. It would only take about half a billion dollars, or as Bloomberg might call it, 'chump change'.  Here is Bloomberg the other day on BBC: Bloomberg on Climate Change What do you think?

Rep. Anthony Weiner [D.NY] and his Near Death Twitter Experience
Okay let me get this straight. His Twitter account was hacked. It may or may not be a picture of his genitals. He didn't send it. It looks like a prank. He won't call in the authorities ("it's not a federal case"), but he and his staff are conducting an investigation into it. it all makes sense to me! Take a look at this:
If you believe Rep. Weiner, I have an excellent piece of real estate for you...

Meanwhile back in Canada's Capital, Parliament Resumes...
With the election of  a majority government combined with the ascension of the NDP to official opposition status, Parliament re-opens with a 32 year old Speaker, Andrew Scheer CPC, Regina Qu'Appelle) and today's Speech from the Throne. Although often kiddingly referred to as the 'Throne Drone' nevertheless, it will be an important indicator of the focus and priorities of the Harper government. I will be on CTV's PowerPlay with Don Martin today (Friday) at 5:12 pm ET [http://www.ctv.ca/powerplay]

Until next time.....

Happy New Year!!!

Welcome back to my annual New Year's blog post. I hope you had a relaxed and enjoyable Christmas and holiday period. I know I did! It was my perfect idea of a vacation - no commitments, no schedule, go to some movies ('The King's Speech', 'True Grit') read some books ('The Confession', 'Resistance') hang out with family and friends. Perfection! 
Below you will see my 'Quick Predictions for 2011'. But first, to finish off 2010 once and for all.....
I remember back in the day looking forward to Esquire Magazine's annual 'Dubious Achievements' year-end edition for their tribute to the strange, perplexing people and events of the year. So, to keep that legacy alive, I will be looking back with my mini-version of.....

Dubious Achievements of 2010

1. The reality TV series pitch from hell..... Fox TV's new sequel.....'Sarah Palin's 'Alaska Wimps'.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's popularity is slipping in her home state, according to a poll released Tuesday. The survey from Democrat pollster, Public Policy Polling (PPP), showed only 33 percent of Alaska voters have a favorable opinion of the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, while 58 percent have a negative one. Out of 10 states polled, only Massachusetts gave Palin a more negative rating (27- 68 percent.)

2. Dad's Cookies proudly announces the worst video contest entry in our history....Stephen Duckett, President and CEO of Alberta's Health Services is forced out following a disastrous effort to force feed a reporter one of his cookies. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DxeCK5Ne_Q 

3. "She had that KKK look in her eyes - kind of reminded me of David Cameron."

In the final days of the 2010 British election, Prime Minister Gordon Brown meets the voter from hell on the campaign trail but then adds the death knell comment into the waiting microphones. Gordon Brown meets a 'bigoted woman'

4. If a two-bit Mafia gangster can't trust Santa, what is this world coming to?

Honest Santa I've Been a Good Mafia Hood!

5. "Coming soon to a nightmare multiplex near you, Aaron Sorkin's "The Sweaty Hoodie"!

This is a classic example of how not to do a media interview: Mark Zuckerberg Sweats Buckets in Media Interview  
Quick Predictions for 2011
1. There will be no federal election in Canada - the Government doesn't want one, and the Opposition don't either no matter how much they bark, scratch and paw the ground.
2. The Republicans in the House will flex their power and if they're not careful will find themselves in a similar position as the Newt Gingrich 'Contract with America' Congressional class of 1994-96 (which enabled Bill Clinton to come back from 'irrelevance'). President Obama may well do a 'rope-a-dope' strategy lulling them into threatening to shut down the Government, creating gridlock, thus throwing themselves offside with the American people (who just want government to work and their politicians to listen to them without playing partisan games). 
3. The first politician who says, 'what's a trillion'?, while talking about the U.S. debt of $14 trillion will be vilified. [The fact that no one has any clear plan to reduce it will go largely unnoticed, of course.]
4. The internet has already passed television as the main source of news for those between 18 and 30. For those between 30 and 49, they are on track to follow suit - if not late this year, then certainly in 2012. Internet set to be main source of news-PEW Research
5. As more mistakes are made in front of microphones by politicians, government officials and executives, there will be an increased demand for media training. And that, after all, is a good thing!

I wish each and every one of you a Happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!

Until next time...

Barry

Announcing the 2010 McLoughlin Annual Awards

Welcome back!
This is the last post of the year and the time to announce the 2010 McLoughlin Annual Awards - to recognize truly extraordinary performance beyond the call of duty.
First to what's been going on in my world. I just survived the most challenging seminar of the year - to my son Liam's Grade 12 writing class. It turned out fine - at least Liam said "you didn't suck" so that's high praise in our family! We're all getting ready for Christmas - in which we aren't going anywhere and the greatest gift will be that we aren't programmed to do anything! What a concept! To wake up in the morning and the toughest question you face is, 'what do you feel like doing today?' I love it. For me, here's my personal list, that I call:
It Wouldn't Be Christmas Without....
1. Charlie Brown's Christmas.....the tradition, the tone, the droll sense of humor....it still stands up after all these years. Even our kids watch it.
2. It's a Wonderful Life...all these years later it still hits the mark for all the family.
3. Plum pudding and fruit cake....sorry I'm still a sucker for both of them.
4. Midnight Mass.... although we usually go to an earlier service. There is nothing as special as that.
5. Opening presents on Christmas morning. It brings back so many memories. Every family has different rituals. Ours is the same as when I was a kid. You got to open one present on Christmas Eve and couldn't open any of the others until everyone was down. Then you take turns. It still works for kids....it's called 'delayed gratification'. What a concept!
And Now....the 2010 McLoughlin Awards..... for Extraordinary Performance Beyond the Pale
1. The ' by the seat of your pants' award - for surviving two votes of confidence in the Italian Legislature in spite of pay-off scandals, underaged women, allegations of drugs and a divorce from hell goes to..... the one and only Silvio Berlusconi who appears to follow the adage of politics, "if you're going to be bad, be a complete disaster! So far, so good!
2. The 'getting hit from both sides ' award goes to.... Barack Obama...who is accused of both inflicting his own agenda on the American public at the same time as he is accused of too much compromise with Republicans. Maybe he'll figure out which one of those accusations he wants to plead guilty to?
3. The 'I know it's hard to believe but I'm more popular than ever' award goes to...Sarah Palin....who defies all conventional wisdom by quitting the governorship when the greatest criticism of her was that she has no experience. Who needed to be taken seriously but  chose to do a reality show! Whose malapropisms on her tweets go viral...but she survives it all. Will it get her to the top? No, but she could make it one of those races where you can't take your eyes off her just in case you miss the latest howler!
4. The 'leaking my ego all over the media' award goes to Wikileak's Julian Assange....whose name and face have dominated the news in recent weeks. Somehow he gives us the impression that it's what he's wanted all along.
5. The 'you don't have to love me, but I hope you really won't like my opponent' award goes to Stephen Harper, who, no matter what happens, seems to edge up in the polls against Michael Ignatieff's Liberals. Go figure!
6. The 'Gulf will clean itself' award goes to the one and only Tony Hayward. Unfortunately for BP, that story still isn't over as the Obama Administration has just launched a lawsuit against them.
7. The 'cry me a river' award goes to John Boehner who cries when he's happy, cries when he's sad and cries when he sticks it to the Obama Administration. And he never once streaks that orange make-up?!
8. The  'I may have missed my flight but I became a viral star instead ' award goes to the don't touch my junk traveler, John Tyner.
9. The 'best impression of a journalist' award goes to 'This Hour Has 22 Minutes' for its terrific take-off A Very Chantal Christmas.
10. The 'sticking it to left-wing pinkos riding bicycles' award is presented unanimously to Hockey Night in Canada's Don Cherry when he 'inaugurated' new Toronto Mayor Rob Ford. Somewhere there's a bordello missing a curtain!

I want to wish each and every one of my loyal readers Merry Christmas!!!!

Until Next Year......

Winners and Losers in Debates

Welcome back to my new blog format and post-debate(s) analysis.
It's the most...wonderful time...of the Year!!! Debate central!
First ....Canada.
The French language debate took place last night. Stephen Harper was under a 4-way barrage and emerged unscathed, if somewhat too muted. Clearly his goal was to stay cool, knowing he would be attacked vociferously...and that indeed came to pass. How did he do?
Click here from my CFRA radio interview this morning (October 2nd):
http://www.cfra.com/interviews/default.asp
"Madely in the Morning - 7:40am --- Steve Madely is joined by Barry McLoughlin of McLoughlin Media to discuss what he believes the leaders need to do in tonight's debate."
http://www.cfra.com/chum_audio/barry_mcloughlin-oct%2002.mp3

The English language debate tonight was a different experience. All of the leaders brought more of their 'A' game to the debate. Stephen Harper brought some passion with his cool demeanor this time out. He took opportunities to push back against Stephen Harper and did particularly well against Jack Layton by saying that he - alone among leaders - only went to publicly operated health clinics. Jack Layton had to admit that he went to the Shouldice Clinic - privately operated but publicly paid. Hhmmmm. The NDP are strongly opposed to private delivery of public health.

Elizabeth May of the Green Party was much better in the English debate. She was strong and succinct while connecting through the camera. Stephen Harper treated her courteously and gave her as much oxygen as possible (in order to take it away from Dion and Layton).

Jack Layton was much more effective also - except for that awkward moment noted above). He wasn't over-smiling and exhibiting tense and aggressive body language. He demonstrated just about the right blend of strength and personal warmth (except towards Harper).

Gilles Duceppe was quite effective as usual - and no doubt once again English voters will be pleasantly surprised at how reasonable he sounds, and his effectiveness. It won't help him directly in Quebec, but the anticipated media coverage will give him some resonance in Quebec among his francophone base.

So who won?
Not a clear winner, but some interesting outcomes, based on a report card scoring:

Stephen Harper, by not losing, speaking to his target voters, while still staying cool under fire.
Elizabeth May - really paid off on her English debate debut. Too much on the defence, but much of that is inevitable.

Jack Layton was able to find his voice and was able to shine in key moments - especially in the debate over the arts - a sensitive topic for the Harper campaign, which may well have hurt them, especially in Quebec.

Stephane Dion built on his better-than-expected debate performance from the night before and it may well help reverse the tide that had gone out in the first two weeks of the campaign.

Elizabeth May had the most obvious benefit out of the evening. She showed she belonged, she gave confidence to her supporters, and made a dent in the 'undecided' voters who may be thinking of strategic voting.

The real winner, hands down, was Steve Paiken of TVO. He showed a strong hand without spoiling the fireworks.

Vice Presidential Debate
Most viewers tuned in to watch a train wreck. They were pretty confident that Sarah Palin would add yet another Tina Fey opportunity. While she was shaky at times - especially on the role of the Vice President, and some awkward moments, she didn't make a fool of herself. She didn't lose votes, but probably didn't gain any either.

Biden Does Well....but Not Outstanding
Joe Biden avoided any verbal gaffes. He came in with high expectations and largely delivered on the promise. He won on substance; he did well on tone and manner. He was also able to avoid sounding condescending towards her - which was vital. Biden treated her as an equal. Clearly he is a tough guy to beat.

Palin Exceeds Expectations
Although she was occasionally evasive on the questions, and too reliant on her notes, Gov. Palin was surprisingly good on foreign policy and clearly comfortable on energy issues. Palin pretty well held her own and the sighs of relief can be heard in every Republican home in America...especially John McCain's. Her way of speakin' is an acquired taste - if ever- and her bashing of 'mainstream media' somewhat strained at this time.

Her tendency to exaggerate - the 'Obama/Biden raising the white flag of surrender' stuff is definitely going too far. When she does the hockey mom routine, it speaks to those whose top-of-mind question is, 'does this person understand me and our family?' She looked into the camera - as did Biden - and made connections with their target voters.

So Now it's up to McCain
The second Presidential debate on October 7th will be more critical than ever, if John McCain is going to turn this around.

Until then...hang onto your hats!
Barry