Getting Ready for E-Day

Welcome back...

J.R. McLoughlin (1918-2011)

Well, it's been an emotionally draining week for me and my entire family. We lost my Dad, James Rodgers McLoughlin on Monday, April 18th. At the age of 93, J.R. died in his sleep after a few hours in hospital. Faithful readers will know how close our relationship was, and how much he influenced my life and my values. My four sisters, our spouses, seven grandchildren and four great-grandchildren will miss him dearly. We gave him a great Irish send-off, and amid the tears, and the occasional laughter, we toasted his life, his wit, his faith and his leadership. Thank you to all who attended one of the celebrations, and who sent us their love and condolences.

Canadian Election Suddenly Gets Interesting
The first three weeks of the campaign were fairly predictable, with little movement in the polls and the Conservatives teetering on the brink of a majority. The first spark in the NDP movement was Jack Layton's performance in the English and French debates, and then really kicked into high gear when Gilles Duceppe appeared at a provincial Parti Quebecois conference and committed the Bloc to pursuing another referendum. That irritated Quebecers who are as equally tired of the never-endum referendum argument. Besides the off-tone Gilles Duceppe campaign has not gone down well - alternating anti-immigration and multicultural rhetoric with angry shots at the NDP and the others has shown a not-too-attractive side to Duceppe.
If they can hold that support and really make big inroads agains the Bloc in Quebec, the NDP may be able to get close to 100 seats, blowing the Liberals out of the water as the Official Opposition. If they do that, the Conservatives will not be able to secure the majority they clearly need.

All of which means......
A very real chance that a combined NDP-Liberal alliance [led by Jack Layton] could secure more than 154 seats between them, vote down the Conservative minority government's new budget [or perhaps the Throne Speech preceding it] and be in a position to persuade Governor General David Johnson that they can maintain the confidence of the House. Look for a possibility of Liberals in the Cabinet - to steady the markets and bring experience into government. The NDP have never foresworn Coalition government. Even if it's not formal, it has to be solid enough to persuade the Governor General that it can hold more than a few months.

What could the Liberals do now? Batten down the hatches and save as many seats as they can with a massive get-out-the-vote in close ridings - particularly in vote-rich Ontario. For the Conservatives, they need to rally soft and right-leaning Liberals to come aboard their ship and then deploy machine-like get-out-the vote capacity in their ridings that are reachable. The NDP need to stop mentioning the hyper-sensitive Constitutional issue with Quebec. And of course, all of them will bombard us with commercials in a last-ditch desperate race to the finish.

And they say that Canada is boring????!!!!

I will be on CTV Power Play with Don Martin Wednesday, April 27th at 5:10 p.m. EDT. to discuss what's going on in the campaign and where it's headed.

Until next time......

Campaign Craziness

Welcome back!
All the focus in Canada is on the election campaign while in Washington, the focus is on trying to keep the government's doors open and the revenue flowing..... Are we having fun yet?


The Conservatives have weathered about three solid days of media coverage on the ousting of two young women who were given the heave-ho from a campaign event by the RCMP. This led all newscasts at least two nights running, which means it really was the most important newsworthy event in the world, or it's a perfect example of the loss of proportionality by the media. You decide.

Prime Minister Harper finally apologized to them today which puts an end to the "controversy". In the meantime the Liberals had their own controversy - a 'white supremacist' candidate was given the boot by Michael Ignatieff which only threw them off their message for one day. However, a second candidate - Liberal candidate John Reilly from Alberta after making 'unacceptable comments about a sexual abuse case' decided to keep him on - thus throwing him off message for a second day. In my weekly gig on CTV's Power Play as Don Martin and I discussed some of these matters and the ads posted on websites by the Tories and the Liberals: CTV Power Play April 6th .
Debate Preview
Not surprisingly the polls don't indicate much movement so far, but wait until the debates on April 12th (English) and April 14th (French) and then I think we will see some dislodging of the 'don't know' and 'undecided' swing voters. Having coached many leaders for debates, each leader has to define clearly their goals, core messages, key positioning, and be able to get their messages across under fire.

In a nutshell, Stephen Harper has to survive, while Ignatieff has to introduce himself to voters as he has been sharply defined by the Tories over the past year. Jack Layton has to present himself as a clear alternative to the status quo. Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe has to merely show up in English (where he always exceeds expectations) but most strongly deliver in French on the second debate - positioning himself as the 'only alternative' to the federalist parties.

In today's Postmedia news I was interviewed about the strategies that the leaders will be employing in their preparation for the debates.

I was interviewed by Carol & Paul Mott on their radio program this a.m. on the debates & campaign controversies. [Click on April 7th podcasts and it's about 2 minutes in]  http://lnkd.in/AMJPEV

www.TheMotts.ca themotts.ca

In Washington, today's the deadline for negotiating a compromise over the budget. Failure to come to an agreement will mean the shutdown of key government offices, which will, in turn, hurt ordinary folks who depend on the government for help on their mortgage problems to their social security checks. If the Republicans don't come to an agreement, it will be 1996 all over again as they will be blamed for bringing on the pain and the President will be positioned as the one trying to fight on behalf of the middle class and the vulnerable. The President went on television last night and while his declared message was the differences have narrowed he reached beyond that to the messages about the 800,000 families who won't have a paycheck, the Americans who won't have the services they're counting on - passports won't be delivered, etc. the economic damage etc. - which clearly positioned the issue  as going backwards because Washington doesn't have its act together".

Until next time....pay attention and stay very, very calm.

When we make 'inartful' comments

'Welcome back!
Well it looks like we are finally getting some of that beautiful Fall weather we have been so missing in these parts. How about where you live? All I have seen in the media - besides political muggings - is floods, hurricanes and the occasional tornado!

I have been busy as always, but managed to squeeze in a round of golf last week, and am hoping to get another round in this weekend.

I also managed to do a few interviews during the past week - one was my comments on David Johnston, Canada's new Governor General and on Stephen Harper, Michael Ignatieff and Jack Layton: Barry on CTV's Power Play


'Inartful' Comments

Last week, CNN's Rick Sanchez, the (now former) host of Rick's List made a few CTCs [Career Terminating Comments] about Comedy Central's Jon Stewart which his bosses at CNN thought were so incendiary that they fired him in record time. [Even faster than their hiring of that other paragon of virtue Eliot Spitzer...but I digress.] His comments speak for themselves and you can judge for yourself if they were worthy of the firing offence: Rick Sanchez melts down

In my view his comments were stupid - and as he himself called them 'inartful' - they weren't quite up to the  standard that one would hear on Fox News or by talk radio hosts across the fruited plain. It might have been better to pair him up with Jon Stewart and watch him be annihilated live on national television. At least Rick faced the music and apologized to Stewart. Jon Stewart Takes Rick Apart

So here is a rule for making 'inartful comments:

1. Never attack a satirist especially if a) he is intelligent and witty and b) has his own show.

So until next time...be careful about who is the target of your 'inartful' comments!

Happy New Year!!!

Welcome to a new year and a new decade. I vote to call it 'twenty-ten' NOT 'two thousand and ten'. How about you? It rolls off the tongue quickly and cleanly, rather than the cumbersome mouthfuls of the past decade's years. I say good riddance to the entire decade while I'm at it.

Just to get last year's unfulfilled New Year's Resolution out of the way first....okay I didn't lose 35 pounds! There I've said it. I had thought that by posting for all to see my goal, then the 'shame incentive' would kick in - forcing me to do it or risk the ridicule of all my faithful readers. Boy was I wrong! The threat of shame only has a limited effect in altering human behavior, after all. So this year, I will merely repeat my goal. Three measly pounds a month. Is that so tough? Uh...yeah. But I'm going to do it anyway. Check this space next year.

Random Thoughts on 2009

The Obama honeymoon is over but.....the relationship may still be saved. The President needs to prove his economic strategy is working and that his health care package is going to deliver on what he promised.

I have to admit I was wrong.. when I said that Sarah Palin leaving the Alaska Governor's office was a mistake. She wrote the best-selling book of the year and has packed venues across the country in her never-ending speaker's tour. Who would have thought it? Although it still does nothing for her experience deficit.

Michael Ignatieff hit the bottom this year but....he may yet recover. He needs to carve out what he and the Liberal Party stand for and connect with voters who still don't know him.

I'm so fed up with.....reality shows. I don't care about Jon or Kate, Octo-mom or Balloon Boy, the Kardashians. [Although I did meet Gene Simmons and was pleasantly surprised at his seriousness as a dad. Go figure!]

The best crisis management of 2009....David Letterman.

The worst crisis management....uh....that would be....Tiger Woods! [Who has got to be very grateful for...Charlie Sheen.]

The greatest musical performance from a political leader.....Stephen Harper...with a little help from his friends. I predict he will have one more showbiz move in him before the year is out!

The best political insider book of 2009.....'The Audacity to Win' by David Plouffe. Strategy, discipline and inclusion beat experience and money.

The most embarrassing new television series involving a failed politician.....former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura.

The most overplayed mawkish media coverage in 2009....the death of Michael Jackson. A sad life doesn't get any better with such 'de-coupled from reality' coverage by CNN and others.

The movie that proves every 'auteur' director needs a tough producer....Quentin Tarantino's 'Inglorious Basterds'. It started as a gripping, intense movie and flatlined into farce in the second half. Not even good farce.

My favorite song of the year.....'Never Forget You' by the Noisettes.

Most poignant and memorable remembrance and funeral of 2009.....that of Sen. Ted Kennedy. A fine tribute to a larger-than-life individual.

Predictions for 2010

1. There will be no Canadian federal election this year. Spring 2011 instead.

2. President Obama will be forced to fire a senior official or Cabinet Member.

3. Canada will win major gold at the Vancouver Winter Olympics.

4. Conrad Black will have his conviction thrown out by the U.S. Supreme Court.

5. Gordon Brown will be replaced by David Cameron as the British Prime Minister.

How do I know these things, you may well ask. Have I ever lied to you before?

Until next time.....Happy New Year!

That Was the Week That Was

Welcome back everyone!

I titled my last blog posting based on a great British series ('A Very British Coup'), so while I'm still in that mood, I am calling this one after another of my favorite Brit series, 'That Was the Week That Was'. In fact, in my childhood, I loved that series (hosted by David Frost, but more on him later) so much that when my writing partner, Ken Shaw, and I pitched our first television series, 'Sshhh it's the News', which ultimately ran on Global TV for 78 episodes in 1974-76, we based it on "TW3". The British version - had only run for two seasons to huge audiences, but was shut down before the 1964 election by the government of Alec Douglas-Hume - who was getting fed up with being skewered so mercilessly. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0131188/

The Canadian Crisis Cools Down...for Now

After coming within a whisker of taking control of the government through a coalition with the NDP and guaranteed by the Bloc Quebecois, the Liberals couldn't move fast enough to show their leader the respect they thought he deserved. He was out the door and replaced by Michael Ignatieff faster than Gov. Rod Blagojevich could auction off an Illinois Senate seat. [By the way, his indictment for that haircut alone was long overdue!]




Gov. Blagojevich and his unindicted hair

That whole Canadian episode seems to put paid to the notion that in politics 'winning is everything' (which I don't subscribe to). When they think you have a chance of assuming power, they swear their undying loyalty. When it's clear you failed, you are history! I actually felt sorry for Mr. Dion. He was a decent man who clearly wasn't able to navigate the political waters and after capsizing the Liberal ship in the election was miraculously thrown a lifeline. I mean you can't blame him for trying!

Sssshhh....the Coalition goes over a cliff but do his ex-partners realize it?

Watching Michael Ignatieff's first news conference after the caucus selected him Leader, I couldn't help but feel that the Coalition is dead in everything but name only. You read it here first. Michael Ignatieff will NEVER AGREE to have the NDP in his Cabinet. He already indicated that if the government falls after its January 27th budget he will go to the Governor General and simply ask for the opportunity to seek the confidence of the House. Period. However, I believe that he will find a way to criticize the budget but allow it to pass. He's no fool. He needs a minimum of 18 months to rebuild the Party coffers, re-build the shattered Liberal brand, and create a bridge to the Canadian voters.

The Big Three Go to Washington (the sequel)
Having shed their private jets and driven to Washington in their own cars, Detroit's big three auto CEOs did a much better job of making their case...but not enough to convince Republican lawmakers that it's a good deal for the taxpayers. As of this writing, even Barack Obama's involvement has come to naught, so, unless there is a last-minute bail-out, a nightmare scenario may indeed unfold with potentially hundreds of thousands of workers thrown out of work. If only the Big Three had been banks or investment firms rolling the dice with depositors' money they would be given all the money they need! To quote Jimmy Carter, "life is unfair".

Frost/Nixon - the Movie

Speaking of David Frost, I'm looking forward to seeing the movie this weekend, as I was blown away by the Broadway stage show. As a sidebar, I remember many years ago working on a variety series that was being directed by Jorn Winther, a Dutch-born director who had just returned from directing the actual Frost-Nixon interviews in San Clemente. Last year, I just happened to be visiting the Nixon Library in Yorba Linda CA and Ron Howard was there directing Frank Langella and Michael Sheen, which I must say was pretty neat.

So I hope to get one more missive out before Christmas but if I miss you, I sincerely hope that you have a peaceful, happy break, because let's face it, we all deserve it, don't we?

Until next time...
Barry