With Santorum gone, what does it mean?

Welcome back!
It's been a much longer time than usual since our last post. Laura and I have been on the road virtually every week doing seminars. In this past month we've been to Charleston SC (heaven!); Philadelphia, New York, and several other business-related jaunts have kept us insanely busy. In between, I've been mad at work on the final edits on the 2012-13 editions of our first two Communicate with Power pocket tips books. I received the first copy of Overcoming Panic and Fear: Risk and Crisis Communications today.

The Launch of 2012-13 Edition: 'Overcoming Panic and Fear: Risk and Crisis Communications'

The look on my face in this picture is one of R-E-L-I-E-F. It's been a long time coming and we will be shipping out the pocket tips to our clients starting tomorrow. It's packed with 150 pages of strategies, tactics and skills to communicate effectively about issues of risk, and in emergencies and crises. If you want to know more about it click on:  http://mcloughlinmedia.com/our--new-pocket-tips-s268.php or drop me an email at barry@mcloughlinmedia.com and we would be happy to tell you all about it.

How Does Mitt Romney Spell Relief?
Speaking of relief, I'm sure that Mitt Romney must be relieved now that Rick Santorum has pulled the plug on his campaign. Not because he feared losing to him, but by pulling out, he just saved Romney's campaign a ton of money and more negative ads firing at a fellow Republican.
What can Romney do to close the gap?
Leaving aside the 'Etch a Sketch' controversy generated by his communications aide [in which he said that Romney could wipe the policy slate clean in September], he does have to pivot cleanly over to the issues that will give him a shot at the Presidency in November. He has to remember that an incumbent President must be voted out of office as the electorate rarely votes in a new President. Think of Jimmy Carter vs. Ronald Reagan or George Walker Bush vs. Bill Clinton. Those were classic cases of voting out the incumbent.
So here is what Romney has to accomplish in the next seven months:
1. Don't try a Game Changer as John McCain did with Sarah Palin. [Great HBO movie by the way]. Besides the electorate can smell a desperate ploy and will run for the exits should Romney try one of those.
2. Pick a running mate who can help him - such as Florida's Senator Marco Rubio who could reach the Catholic and Latino voter more effectively than Romney; or a woman VP candidate such as South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley who would be critically important to help close the gender gap. The key today for a strong VP candidate is someone who can not only bring home their state's electoral college votes, but more importantly make a big dent in a much-needed demographic group.
3. Focus the ballot question on the President's handling of the economy. Avoid making it nasty and personal. Contrast in positive terms how he would fix the economy and getting it moving again - with jobs as the focus. As the economy improves, however, it will make it harder to tag President Obama with it.
4. Romney needs to re-define himself from being the Wall Street 'loves to fire people' guy into a person who will fight for the American workers and small-business owners. His difficulty in handling his own personal narrative and family wealth have helped define him as the 'voice of the 1%'.
5. Get rid of the over-rehearsed awkward efforts at connecting with people. He needs to convey a credible sense that he gets what real families are going through and reach them with a message that they care about.To this point, he has trouble doing that.
6. He needs to heal the very deep wounds of the primary season, pull them together and get them to work with enthusiasm for his victory. When you spend a year making huge negative ad buys on your fellow Republican candidates, that will be incredibly difficult. He needs to build on the base - not pander to it.
7. He has to run a great fall campaign, win the debate with Obama, improve his 'earned media' campaign and try to avoid the verbal gaffes that have plagued his nomination battle. A tall order to say the least!
Ultimately, Romney's challenges seem almost insurmountable, but as both he and Barack Obama know, seven months is a lifetime in politics.
The Canadian Government's F-35 Procurement Controversy
The Harper government has been struggling to put a controversy behind it concerning what it knew-and when it knew it -  about the real costs of the development and procurement of a fleet of fighter aircraft to replace the F-18 fleet which is getting closer to its 30 year life-span. The Opposition parties have tried to define the issue as 'mis-leading Parliament' while the government has tried to put the issue behind it by acting immediately to respond to the recommendations of the Auditor General. Who will win the 'battle of the issue'? It all depends on how engaged the public becomes and what they think of the whole matter. I commented on the public's perception of the issue on CTV's PowerPlay along with pollster Nik Nanos.
The NDP's New Leader Sets Out to Define Himself

The rule of politics is 'define yourself before your opponents do' and no party has been better at that than the Conservative Party under Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Thanks to the successful 2011 election campaign led by the late Jack Layton, the NDP has found itself the Official Opposition with the Liberals under interim leader (and former NDP Premier) Bob Rae filling the void during the NDP leadership race as the 'real' Opposition.
So the NDP have leapt quickly to define Thomas Mulcair (now known as 'Tom') - their new leader - by launching a series of television ads. I appeared on Tuesday night on CTV's PowerPlay with Don Martin and former NDP Communications Director Brad Lavigne to discuss their effectiveness. My conclusion was that it wasn't a bad start but it needs to be better executed and he needs to show he can connect with voters.
Remembering Mike Wallace

And finally, the passing of Mike Wallace, a true broadcasting legend, was noted by many news outlets this week. Wallace was a one-of-a-kind news man whose sixty year career - including four decades on 60 Minutes - made a very powerful contribution to news and current affairs. I couldn't help but think of the times that Laura and I would see him on Main Street of Vineyard Haven - usually he had just finished a tennis match or was lining up for a coffee in the deli.

The first time we had met him was at a talk he gave in Edgartown at the Old Whaling Church in which he recapped his career - complete with terrific video clips from 60 Minutes. I asked him, "if a CEO were about to be interviewed by you, what would you advise?" I'll never forget his answer: "I would advise that person to get media training. You know, there are people who specialize in that? I spend my whole career interviewing so it's not a level playing field."
Afterwards, Laura and I came up and I sheepishly introduced myself as a media trainer and we had a chuckle and a nice chat about that. Laura brought up a recent situation with him about a government agency that had refused to speak with him about a controversial issue. She wanted to know how he felt about their refusal to talk to him - in which they had ultimately ordered him off the property?
"We always had a great relationship and they had received great coverage from us over the years", he told her, just shaking his head, genuinely mystified at their treatment of him. That strategy not only failed to get the Agency's message out, it effectively shut their message out of the program totally. He revealed that he had been a Communications Officer in the Navy and knew that their refusal to cooperate made his item one-sided and he didn't understand how media relations professionals would not realize that.

His warmth and charisma were powerful to behold - on television and in person and, although he has had many imitators, he was a true original.

Until next time.....

Post-debate prognosis

Welcome back to the post-debate, mid-campaign period of Canada's biennial election. With Stephen Harper's Conservatives still hovering just below the majority government threshold (usually estimated at around 42% of the vote) at around 39%, did the Leaders do enough in the English and French debates to 'move the dial'? That's what we will explore in this post.

The McLoughlin Media team has been very busy in recent days - with yours truly doing the pre-debate and post-debate analysis on CTV with Power Play host Don Martin, and my partner Laura Peck at the same time doing the pre-and post-analysis on CPAC (while also handling telephone calls from viewers with host Peter Van Dusen and the political panel).

So, who won the debates? By any reasonable measure, Stephen Harper won the English debate by staying calm, cool and collected and avoiding any gaffes. According to the Nanos Research post-debate analysis, the numbers for Mr. Harper rose noticeably. However, in terms of best performance - it was clearly Jack Layton who impressed the most - for his attacks on both Harper and Ignatieff and positioning himself as a credible alternative to the status quo. His body language, eye contact and tone of voice were excellent - which was remarkable considering that he was standing on his feet with a broken hip for two hours!

For Michael Ignatieff - even though he came across as too 'hot' for the cool environment - he scored some strong hits on Stephen Harper, although not many of them inflicted much damage. this was due to a tendency to ask three questions at a time, when he needed to focus on one at a time. However, he didn't do himself any damage, and in fact, more than likely gave some badly needed momentum to his campaign.

Gilles Duceppe clearly under-performed in the English debate, compared to previous debates. With the exception of a few good lines, he mostly repeated his attack points, but didn't really score well.

French Debate Analysis
Duceppe was back on solid ground in the French debate as he took on all comers. Jack Layton again performed the best, while Michael Ignatieff's performance improved significantly over the night before's English debate. He was calm, focused and used the camera well to address Quebecers with his vision. Both Ignatieff and Harper side-stepped skillfully the traps that Duceppe laid out - on imposing Bill 101's French-only laws on the currently exempted federally-regulated industries, as an example. Jack Layton was the clear beneficiary again of the debate as he showed he could hold his own against Duceppe's attacks.
Stephen Harper survived the debate without any self-inflicted damage by choosing to mostly ignore Duceppe's attacks. He must have had welts on his tongue as he listened to the former Communist (by his own admission) lecture Harper on Quebec's inability to score more hand-outs to match Ontario's bail-out of the auto industry etc. He refuted him on the issue of helping the forestry sector, but for the most part knew that it would be a mug's game to take Duceppe on directly. However, Harper didn't need to 'win', he just needed to 'not lose' and, even though he under-performed against his English debate, nevertheless that was to be expected.  He just needs to hold those 11 Quebec seats and he may well just do that.

For my debate analysis on the English debate which I did for Carol and Paul Mott on the Motts radio show, click here  and select 'April 13' podcast.

So What Will this Mean?
The real proving ground for Stephen Harper is Ontario, and he is neck-and-neck with the Liberals. If the Conservatives can grab more seats in the GTA (Greater Toronto Area) from the Liberals, that will be a key. [Hence all the focus on the so-called 'ethnic' vote, which is causing a firestorm of accusations about some of the candidates from the Tories and Liberals with questionable backgrounds.]

The second proving ground will be a possible pick- up of several seats for the Tories in Atlantic Canada - in particular from Newfoundland. The Prairie Provinces look solid for the Conservatives, with the NDP holding seats in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. British Columbia, however, appears to hold the key for the NDP and the Tories as they battle over seats. If the NDP get a bounce from Layton's two debate performances it should show up in British Columbia where they have organization, unpopularity of the HST and other issues giving them a potential edge.

Finally, if the Liberals bring back the nearly 1 million Liberals who stayed home last time out under Stephane Dion, they could make a solid gain in seats, thus holding the Conservatives to a minority. If there is some kind of 'scandal' to be unearthed, it could turn into a very close race.

The Helena Guergis Story
Speaking of 'scandal', the 'Helena Guergis Story' ["soon to be a major motion picture an episode of CBC's Insecurity"] has been resurrected thanks to a copy of the PMO letter to the RCMP falling into the hands of the CBC. It shows that there wasn't really anything to the allegations against her other than private investigator Derek Snowdy's hyper-ventilated rumours. At her live news conference on Friday morning, she was very effective in her heartfelt reaction to the attack on her character, and her emotional response to what has befallen her and her family was understandable.
She chose to avoid the trap of broadening her attack on her Party even though she is in a head-on battle with the highly qualified Dr. Kellie Leitch, the Conservative candidate. That will be an interesting riding to watch on election night. Will this story involve any more collateral damage to Stephen Harper? Probably not directly, but it certainly lost him another day of focus on his message. He made it clear he doesn't want her back, without mentioning her name.  The photo of Helena holding her baby Xavier at the news conference will be hard to top, of course. That young boy has a future in politics! His party? To Be Determined.

Heading towards the finish line
As the Speaker has now cleared the way for Auditor General Sheila Fraser to release her final draft of her audit of the G8/G20 spending, expect that to be the hyper-focus for next week. So the momentum could slide against the Tories in the final weeks of the campaign - thus endangering their vision of a majority victory. The Liberals have moved to a thematic of 'fear vs. hope' to get the Tory numbers down. In my view, that won't work, as they have tried the 'scary Harper' theme in previous elections. Remember 'Tanks. In our streets. In Canada.'? Right now the frame is 'fear of the unknown (coalition) vs. 'fear of the known' (Stephen Harper). Stephen Harper has had five years in which he has been defined and the scare tactics rarely work when the public feels they already know him. However, their internal polling probably tells them it's all they've got left in their need to move the dial.

Who will form the Government? 50% chance it could be Ignatieff
If that happens, and the Liberals boost their seats, I believe that there's a 50% chance that Michael Ignatieff would be Prime Minister by the end of June - all without technically violating his promise that he won't have a 'coalition'. He won't need one; he won't need to offer Mr. Layton or Mr. Duceppe a place in his Cabinet.

IF the Opposition brings down the Conservatives on their budget (which they've already said they will), and IF the Governor General were to refuse Mr. Harper's wish to dissolve Parliament and call an election (which is possible given the threat of ongoing elections), he MIGHT be given the chance to gain the confidence of the House. He could do so with a letter of agreement covering a two-year period, without technically being a 'coalition'. And if that were the case, it would be.....Prime Minister Ignatieff. Do you think this is in the back of his mind - and Mr. Harper's? How about the front of his mind? And Michael Ignatieff's for that matter. Why do you think there is such a focus by the PM on getting a majority? The real tip-off will be on May 3rd. If there is no call by Liberals for Mr. Ignatieff's early departure, it will be because the negotiations will already be underway.

So, it's still ridiculously early to predict, but stranger things have happened - such as right after the 2008 election, for that matter - because, hey, welcome to Canada!

See you soon.
Barry

Commenting on Campaign Ads

Hi there! I thought you might be interested in my comments yesterday on CTV's Power Play on the latest TV commercials by the NDP and Conservatives in this pre-campaign period. As an aside, it's looking more and more like an election is in the offing in Canada.   Barry on CTV's Power Play .

From Politics to Media to Rebellions

Welcome back!
 We've been extremely busy the past month since my last posting - lots of travel and seminars. Laura and I spent a few days in San Francisco and the Silicon Valley combining work and play - tough job, but somebody's got to do it!
50/50 Chance of Spring Election in Canada 
In Canada, the volatility of the electorate still leaves up in the air the question of whether or not there will be a spring election. Up until two weeks ago, it looked much more certain, with the Harper Conservatives up 13% in the polls. However, with the Harper government still shy of a majority - and with their 13% lead in the polls tightening to 5% - possibly due to the controversy surrounding Minister Bev Oda - is a spring election now more likely or less? For Stephen Harper, he is no doubt looking at it through his calculus - go now before other possible 'distractions' cloud the picture, or wait until he can slowly and methodically build the foundation for a stronger and less volatile voter universe? Momentum is critical in politics and the Liberals know they will have to consolidate and build on their 'uptick'. So is this the start of the Liberals' resurrection story, or is it a 'dead cat bounce'?
In the meantime, will we be seeing this photo in upcoming Liberal ads?

Bev Oda grabs a smoke.

[A cautionary note here. As Bev Oda recovers from retina surgery, it might well be seen as a low blow, which could backfire on the Party that is tempted to use it. Shades of Jean 'I can't help it. God made me this way' Chretien in his clever response to a PC campaign commercial in 1993 which seemed to focus on his disfigured face.]


Understanding and reaching your voter universe
In any event, all parties have to understand and reach their voter universe, while pulling away enough of their opponents' soft supporters to fashion victory. Take a look at this voter profile chart to understand how that voter differentiation will work and how voters can be reached through media channels.
Obama's Recovery....so far
Meanwhile, Barack Obama has rebounded strongly in the polls since the Democrats' November 'shellacking'. What's the reason for this? First, in a whirlwind of legislative successes in the lame-duck Congress, he managed to get what he wanted on issues from 'don't ask, don't tell' to extension of unemployment benefits - thus avoiding the deadly label of 'weak and ineffectual' which attached itself like a deadly barnacle to Jimmy Carter. The Administration's ability to succeed legislatively in a minority Congressional situation will be extremely problematic, so the President will have to position himself clearly and strongly with the American people who are still angry and worried about their economic future. In the end, even though there is no magic bullet when it comes to debt, economic growth or jobs, he must be seen as having a clear set of solutions with the energy, focus, compassion and competence to lead America through the choppy waters.
The Power of Social Media
It's abundantly clear that social media - notably Facebook® and Twitter® - have transformed the ability to foment revolutions against brutal dictatorships, empowering ordinary people, by letting them know that they are not alone. This phenomenon is here to say, so other dictators...watch out!

"My media advisor is in big trouble!"

Did you catch Qaddafi's 'media availability' to prove he hadn't left the country - while holding that dainty white umbrella? It said more than he ever intended about the perception of his 'craziness'.

I was quite impressed by a Libyan ex-pat who said in an interview as he headed back to check out his family in Libya, "don't call Qaddafi mad. He's not mad - that lets him off the hook. He's an evil criminal." Well said!


The Courage of Journalists
Finally, hats off to the courage of journalists covering the rebellions ...among them, Laura Logan from CBS to the ubiquitous Anderson Cooper, to many more from Canada, the United States, the U.K. and from so many countries around the world who have been risking their lives to get the stories that the world needs to know. Speaking of Laura Logan, when academics and commentators try to use such a brutal assault to further their own theories on their Twitter feed, it can be quite pathetic.

I hope you enjoy the Oscars. I have it on good authority that Qaddafi will not be rooting for The Social Network!

Until next time....

Another year older and.....

Welcome back!
I write this from a beautiful town with a name that resonates around the world....Naples.....Florida, that is. Three friends of mine twisted my arm and invited me to our second annual golf week. Technically, that's a misnomer, as we had our first trip just this past April. So, in actuality this is the second semi-annual tour. While my golf game is a continuing challenge, it has proven to be just as much fun as the first one. This time, we are celebrating my birthday - which we did just this evening with a great dinner and, as usual, stories, lies and laughs that make friendships such a rich fabric to one's life.

All of us are parents and we got to talking about how one's life is a combination of such elements that combine hard work, luck and opportunities taken and missed. So I will share a few thoughts on the subject at the end of this posting, so if you want to click off before that, you can do so without missing some of the - shall we say - 'substantive' post.

An Election Looms in Canada
With the results of the recent by-elections in Canada in which the Conservatives won two out of the three (one they held and one they took from the Liberals), in combination with rising poll numbers for Stephen Harper's Tories, point to a Spring 2011 election. Why? Because politics and momentum are almost everything in politics. The public perception of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff are very weak, and can only improve over time - especially as he lays out a more solid policy framework - which helps to define him after allowing himself to be defined by the Conservatives in the early years.

There are a few stumbling blocks on the road to such an election in a minority government scenario. One of the major ones being the legislation that the government put in place to have fixed elections (something I have always felt was an artificial construct in a Parliamentary system that will often end up being more honoured in the breach - especially when a national Parliament is increasingly a minority situation. However, the easiest way to deal with it is to put in place a budget which would challenge the Opposition's ability to accept it. Given that the Liberals clearly don't relish an election anytime soon, such a Budget would have to be cleverly crafted to avoid looking too cute by half, or to violate the principle of the fixed election law.

One thing for all election hawks in the Conservative Party to keep in mind, however, is the volatility of the electorate. Given a strong message, and a campaign to match, it could be an even draw with the Liberals, opening up a number of post-election scenarios - as happened after the recent British election when the Conservatives joined up with the Liberal-Democrats to form government.

A Year Away From the Iowa Caucuses
The post-midterm elections positioning is underway as the Republicans and Democrats spar over everything from government debt to saving social security etc. etc. It's painfully clear that there is no 'common ground' and, while the public say they want bipartisanship, that message is absolutely not reaching the politicians in Washington.

So what does this mean for the coming 'pre-positioning' year in American politics? On the Republican side, Sarah Palin will obviously have to make up her mind - to give up the easy money, fame and television shows for the daily slog of running for President under a huge magnifying glass focused on her flaws and family. It may become almost inevitable. The momentum is clearly building and she has to realize that the bubble she is in won't last forever. So the betting is that she may well go for it. Her latest comments - "we gotta stand with our North Korean allies" notwithstanding.

Mitt Romney is working hard to build his brand and base in order to sustain a strong race. The first thing people think of when his name comes up, unfortunately, is his Mormon religion. One would hope that such a slight against a candidate belongs to yesterday (shades of JFK). The fact that he has already run a national campaign and been a successful governor in a liberal state should go some way to having offset that stigma. His real challenge now is to try to attract wind from Tea Party sails without being swamped overboard by them. The thing about Romney is that no matter what he tries to do, he just can't seem to connect with voters in an emotional way with his core values emerging. So, his appeal is limited by definition but he will make a strong campaign for the Republican nomination.

President Obama has a huge challenge in this year - facing a Republican controlled Congress - and a still weak economic recovery. He has to be hoping for two things - a Sarah Palin Republican nominee and, for safe measure, a third party candidate, such as Michael Bloomberg, to divide the vote. [Ross Perot's candidacy in 1992 ensured a Bill Clinton victory over George Bush]. Notice when the President was asked by Barbara Walters what he thought of Sarah Palin he said that he didn't spend any time thinking about her.  A safe answer and may even be true.....for now. But one can tell he clearly relishes the prospect.


Some Birthday Musings [The part that you can feel free to skip]
It's only a day on the calendar, but as one goes along in life, a birthday is a time to reflect on where one has gone - hopefully with some insights for our kids and anyone else who really cares. So here goes:
1. Work harder than anyone else.
2. Recognize opportunities when they come along. If they don't, create your own.
3. Although you can't always tell where certain paths lead, have faith that somewhere down the road those paths will intersect and give you a unique journey. [I have always been a great believer in serendipity - something I inherit from my father.]
4. Be thankful for every day you have. Each day really is a gift; so try not to waste even one.
5. Keep in a learning mode. It keeps your brain young and your life interesting.
6. Figure out what you love to do and try to construct a career that enables you to get paid for what you love.
7. Be good to people on the way up. You will absolutely meet them on the way down - or when they're on the way up.
8. Every time you're tempted to say something negative about somebody, bite your tongue. You won't regret it.
9. Remember that we're all more than the sum of our parts - physically, mentally and emotionally. We are infused with a spirit - we just need to search for it and nurture it. That spirit will help you overcome almost anything that life throws in your way.
10. Stay humble. It may come in very handy someday.
11. Find a kindred spirit in life to enjoy the journey. [I have been so blessed in that regard.]
12. Finally, if you're going to have musings, always have an even dozen. It has such symmetry.

Until next time......

When we make 'inartful' comments

'Welcome back!
Well it looks like we are finally getting some of that beautiful Fall weather we have been so missing in these parts. How about where you live? All I have seen in the media - besides political muggings - is floods, hurricanes and the occasional tornado!

I have been busy as always, but managed to squeeze in a round of golf last week, and am hoping to get another round in this weekend.

I also managed to do a few interviews during the past week - one was my comments on David Johnston, Canada's new Governor General and on Stephen Harper, Michael Ignatieff and Jack Layton: Barry on CTV's Power Play


'Inartful' Comments

Last week, CNN's Rick Sanchez, the (now former) host of Rick's List made a few CTCs [Career Terminating Comments] about Comedy Central's Jon Stewart which his bosses at CNN thought were so incendiary that they fired him in record time. [Even faster than their hiring of that other paragon of virtue Eliot Spitzer...but I digress.] His comments speak for themselves and you can judge for yourself if they were worthy of the firing offence: Rick Sanchez melts down

In my view his comments were stupid - and as he himself called them 'inartful' - they weren't quite up to the  standard that one would hear on Fox News or by talk radio hosts across the fruited plain. It might have been better to pair him up with Jon Stewart and watch him be annihilated live on national television. At least Rick faced the music and apologized to Stewart. Jon Stewart Takes Rick Apart

So here is a rule for making 'inartful comments:

1. Never attack a satirist especially if a) he is intelligent and witty and b) has his own show.

So until next time...be careful about who is the target of your 'inartful' comments!

Happy New Year!!!

Welcome to a new year and a new decade. I vote to call it 'twenty-ten' NOT 'two thousand and ten'. How about you? It rolls off the tongue quickly and cleanly, rather than the cumbersome mouthfuls of the past decade's years. I say good riddance to the entire decade while I'm at it.

Just to get last year's unfulfilled New Year's Resolution out of the way first....okay I didn't lose 35 pounds! There I've said it. I had thought that by posting for all to see my goal, then the 'shame incentive' would kick in - forcing me to do it or risk the ridicule of all my faithful readers. Boy was I wrong! The threat of shame only has a limited effect in altering human behavior, after all. So this year, I will merely repeat my goal. Three measly pounds a month. Is that so tough? Uh...yeah. But I'm going to do it anyway. Check this space next year.

Random Thoughts on 2009

The Obama honeymoon is over but.....the relationship may still be saved. The President needs to prove his economic strategy is working and that his health care package is going to deliver on what he promised.

I have to admit I was wrong.. when I said that Sarah Palin leaving the Alaska Governor's office was a mistake. She wrote the best-selling book of the year and has packed venues across the country in her never-ending speaker's tour. Who would have thought it? Although it still does nothing for her experience deficit.

Michael Ignatieff hit the bottom this year but....he may yet recover. He needs to carve out what he and the Liberal Party stand for and connect with voters who still don't know him.

I'm so fed up with.....reality shows. I don't care about Jon or Kate, Octo-mom or Balloon Boy, the Kardashians. [Although I did meet Gene Simmons and was pleasantly surprised at his seriousness as a dad. Go figure!]

The best crisis management of 2009....David Letterman.

The worst crisis management....uh....that would be....Tiger Woods! [Who has got to be very grateful for...Charlie Sheen.]

The greatest musical performance from a political leader.....Stephen Harper...with a little help from his friends. I predict he will have one more showbiz move in him before the year is out!

The best political insider book of 2009.....'The Audacity to Win' by David Plouffe. Strategy, discipline and inclusion beat experience and money.

The most embarrassing new television series involving a failed politician.....former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura.

The most overplayed mawkish media coverage in 2009....the death of Michael Jackson. A sad life doesn't get any better with such 'de-coupled from reality' coverage by CNN and others.

The movie that proves every 'auteur' director needs a tough producer....Quentin Tarantino's 'Inglorious Basterds'. It started as a gripping, intense movie and flatlined into farce in the second half. Not even good farce.

My favorite song of the year.....'Never Forget You' by the Noisettes.

Most poignant and memorable remembrance and funeral of 2009.....that of Sen. Ted Kennedy. A fine tribute to a larger-than-life individual.

Predictions for 2010

1. There will be no Canadian federal election this year. Spring 2011 instead.

2. President Obama will be forced to fire a senior official or Cabinet Member.

3. Canada will win major gold at the Vancouver Winter Olympics.

4. Conrad Black will have his conviction thrown out by the U.S. Supreme Court.

5. Gordon Brown will be replaced by David Cameron as the British Prime Minister.

How do I know these things, you may well ask. Have I ever lied to you before?

Until next time.....Happy New Year!

Comments and Predictions

Welcome back
Well it was a beautifully done funeral for Ted Kennedy. A time for remembrances, some laughs and some tears. I shed a tear when Teddy Junior spoke of his struggle to get up the driveway in the winter with his artificial leg and his father's encouragement. Of course, I'm pretty emotional about father-son relationships, as they resonate with so much with me.

Unlike some critics, I thought President Obama's eulogy was just right. Some commentators and columnists felt he should have turned it into a Health Care Reform call to arms. Give me a break! Bad taste, and totally counter to the bipartisan theme that had been an integral undercurrent of the ceremonies.

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick has set Jan. 19th at the date of the special election to fill Sen. Kennedy's seat, with the primaries on Dec. 8th. The Legislature will no doubt accede to the late Senator's request for an interim appointment. [Interestingly, back in 2004 the Democrat-controlled Legislature took the power away from the Governor's office to deny Gov. Mitt Romney the opportunity to fill it, if John Kerry had won the Presidency.] What goes around comes around, right?

If Joe Kennedy announces, he'll be tough to beat. However, he didn't prove to be a particularly effective Congressman, but he may have matured and will no doubt have a different perspective on the opportunity that the Senate would present him to continue his uncle's legacy. Although, based on what I saw, Teddy Jr. would be a better candidate. I'm just sayin'.....

Canadian Election Countdown
I hate it when I'm right (and so un-used to it..) but as I predicted in my June blog, Canada is heading for a federal election that nobody (except certain politicians) really want. Michael Ignatieff set the groundwork in June by drawing another line in the sand for a no-confidence motion at the end of September. Politically, he can't draw another line later on without looking Stephane Dion-ish. His credibility would suffer irreparable harm.

Look for Prime Minister Harper to introduce a Ways and Means motion that may well be defeated once the House reconvenes in mid-September. In that way he will try to control the election call.

But is this a good idea for the Liberals?

In my view, no it isn't. The Harper government wants the campaign to be about economic issues - not social issues or the environment. When people are worried about their jobs, they tend to look to a leader who appears strong and fairly tough. With the Liberals call for billions more on Employment Insurance and more program spending, it will be hard to make the case credibly that he would manage the deficit better. Besides the political zeitgeist in Canada and the United States has shifted in the past few months from "who can spend more, fast enough, to kick-start the economy?" to "who has the plan to get us out of this debt we're piling up?"

That may explain why Mr. Ignatieff has pulled the plug on one of his own demands, to work on reforming the Employment Insurance program. The less association with that, the better. He needs to find a platform and a message that resonates with the voter. It's definitely possible, but he has a very short time for Canadians to get to know him while at the same time setting out his platform.

Until next time....

The Power of Hope

Welcome back!

Here it is - a month after my last post - and I'm finally back in blogging mode. That is the longest I have taken in between, but life has been incredibly busy!!!

Iranian Hope

The mounting anger in Iran and around the world over the stolen er/...disputed election there is a great example of how powerful hope is. Who would have believed that the Iranian people would dare to challenge the Supreme One, the Revolutionary Guardhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif and the Ayatollahs? It is easy for all of us to fall prey to the one-dimensional stereotype of the Iranian people, as it is with so many of these nations that live under the thumb of totalitarian governments.

Note the power of twittering, blogging and video cell phones in getting the messages out, giving hope to their fellow protesters?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w05_-ZY5ZSI


What should the Obama Administration or other countries - Canada included - do about it? Simply put, keep the pressure on and give hope to those who are risking their lives for democracy. They have to do all this without being so overt as to fall into the classic trap that all outlaw governments love....an external enemy - and having America as part of it really puts the icing on the cake.

Meanwhile it could become that first major test of President Obama's foreign policy that Joe Biden had so helpfully predicted during the campaign. He's already had the other member of the 'Axis of Evil' firing off nuclear warheads so it will be interesting to see if the Prez can handle these pests as well as he took care of that fly during the CNBC interview.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzgOS8dbF64

Michael Ignatieff...Over-Promising and Under-Delivering

Meanwhile in Canada, the Harper minority government weathered a potential take-down by Opposition Leader Michael Ignatieff. Who won the perception battle? In my view, Prime Minister Harper won the showdown. He showed flexiblity in his negotiations with Mr. Ignatieff, without caving in.

The lesson I would take away from that if I were in the Office of the Leader of the Opposition....remember the law of expectations management: under-promise and over-deliver. When Mr. Ignatieff set out the four conditions upon which he would make his decision, he drew a line in the sand. Within hours of his Monday morning news conference he was rapidly erasing that line.

Predicting a Fall 2009 Election

So now where does this leave him? As he managed to negotiate a September 30th Opposition Day to bring down the government, he can't possibly draw another line in the sand. "Oops...okay this time I really really mean it!" Sorry that won't work. So I predict we are facing a September 30th pulling of the plug and a Fall election. The only thing stopping it is if the NDP or the Bloc get cold feet and do a complete back-flip, abandoning their principles in the process.[Of course that's totally unheard of in Canada!]

Father's Day

A belated Happy Father's Day to all you Dads out there....and especially to my Dad, J.R.. Although no Dad will ever get a nod from CBC Sunday Morning...this year, in the spirit of recent years, they celebrated Father's Day by barely mentioning it, but devoting a major piece to how millions of women have gone 'missing' over the years. Hey we get that, but how about just a little bit on how important being a Dad is?

On the Road Again....


Last week it was Saskatoon and Toronto. This week it will be Mt. Laurel New Jersey! Life ....and seminars....go on! [Thankfully].

Until next time....remember the Power of Hope!
Barry