What should the PM do?

Welcome back to the Senate "House of Horrors'. Just in time for Hallowe'en, the issue of the expenses 'scandal' has exploded into a media-frenzy which has captured the attention of the public like nothing else in recent years - thanks to the fumbled attempt to suspend the three Senators without pay. The three Senators have made impassioned  pleas for 'due process' and they seem to have succeeded in getting Canadians to put a hold on the suspension.

Following the latest 'wrinkles' revealed by Sen. Mike Duffy and his lawyer, Donald Bayne, and the release of emails revealing a second cheque being paid to Duffy by the Conservative Party to cover his legal fees, the issue has spun out of control. Sen. Pamela Wallin got some traction in her speech with her call for 'due process'. [The High School Confidential part starring Sen. Marjorie LeBreton and Sen. Carolyn Stewart-Olsen triggered more snickers than impact.] In her second appearance, she dropped that and honed in on the 'due process' issue to maximum effect. Sen. Patrick Brazeau revealed that he was offered a chance to reduce his punishment if he were to apologize. Interestingly enough, it served to open the door to a potential compromise. All of this at a very awkward and frustrating time for the Prime Minister and the Party on the eve of their Calgary Conference later this week.
So what should the Prime Minister do?
1. "If you've broken the eggs, you should make an omelette." Anthony Eden had it right, at least on that line. The Prime Minister should let it be known that he would embrace the Liberal amendment to hold off on the suspension and proceed immediately to a special Senate committee to hold hearings on it. In turn, Sen. Carrignan, the Conservative leader in the Senate could amend it to limit the time for the committee to meet and to vote based on the evidence before them. The three Senators would be invited to appear - as would Nigel Wright and others - to provide testimony, and answer questions. Yes, they should be allowed to have legal counsel, given the current RCMP investigation and the legal consequences. Then the Committee could vote its recommendations to the Senate as a whole on what, if any, should be the consequences for the Senators.

2. Won't this make the Tories look bad? There are no pure options. Yes, the Twitterverse would be filled with people saying that - but it's not likely that they're Tory voters anyway. Besides, now that new 'evidence' and allegations have emerged, it's worth clearing the air, and not letting it fester any further. It would provide a clear opportunity for the Prime Minister to say that he has listened to Canadians and has changed his mind. It's about restoring the issue that helped the Conservatives get into power - accountability. They need to look for the opportunity in this crisis, or as Homer Simpson put it, a 'crisi-tunity'.

3.  The PM should hold a news conference and clear the air about what he knew and when he knew it. Personally, I'm confident that he has nothing to

hide and can handle any questions from the Parliamentary Press Gallery that he is thrown. It would give him a chance to take care of, for example, his comments that he 'dismissed' Nigel Wright - rather than 'reluctantly' accepted his resignation. It may not be worth a hill of beans, but it's important to clear up the apparent contradiction. Also, watching him perform in the House this week (when he didn't hand it off to his Parliamentary Secretary), he was strong, clear and cool.
His sound bite of the week will probably be used again: "You're darn right I told him he should repay his expenses." The PM needs to do what he does best. Non-combative, strong, but 'more in sadness than with anger'.
4. Is the damage to the PM fatal? Given past history, and depending on whether or not there are any further damaging 'revelations', it is probably not permanently damaging. Despite all the heat developing around the issue, there still is no proof that the PM knew - either about the $90,000 Nigel Wright cheque or the $13,500 Party cheque to Sen. Duffy's lawyers. It's bruising, yes. And that's why it needs to be aired in public and then put to rest.
5. The PM needs to get back to his agenda - the economy...and fast. With news that the government is well ahead of its 2015 balanced budget commitment, combined with the huge EU free trade deal, this balloon has to be 'popped' and he needs the focus to return to his strong suit, the economy.
The Obama Administration's Struggles

Meanwhile, the Obama Administration is trying to recover from fumbles on two fronts - one domestic - the disastrous rollout of 'Obamacare'' and the other -  the revelations of spying on Allies - including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the Spanish and French governments. The key is to move quickly, and this, they did. The President held a news conference and used it as an opportunity to eat crow on the website roll-out and vow to get to the bottom of it.

The international 'bugging' embarrassment was handled by White House spokesman Jay Carney - who parsed his words carefully (allowing others to deliberately read into the remarks the silent admission that they had indeed bugged the Chancellor's telephone calls). Carney was also called upon to admit that - contrary to the President's previous assurances - some Americans would indeed lose their existing health insurance.
The decision to get out there and communicate is essential to credibility. Although they could have moved on a peremptory basis, instead of just reacting to the stories, nevertheless when the Administration did move, they were able to begin the process of regaining credibility.

Finally, the social media world was gripped with the battle of wits between the BBC's acerbic Jeremy Paxman and bad boy comedian Russell Brand. Paxman should have spent some time checking out some previous efforts by Brand to turn the tables on his interlocutors, as he did recently on MSNBC's Morning Joe. No matter what you think of his arguments, Brand seems to get a special joy out of throwing expectations to the wind and saying whatever he wants. I guess Katy Perry lost her fascination with it, but hey, it works!
Until next time....I'm going to focus on the rest of the World Series. Go Red Sox!

What's the Deal With....?

Welcome back;
It's been a busy week or so since our last post. Since then, Laura and I have done seminars in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa, conducted our Thursday night course in Political Management and the Media at Carleton University's Riddell Graduate Program, and helped a few clients manage their crises. But it wasn't all fun, we had to work too!
What's the Deal with Piers Morgan? 

Has he jumped the shark?

Generally, I'm a fan of Piers and his show. He is quite fearless on subjects and usually doesn't suck up too much to the powers that be. Since the Sandy Hook massacre, however, he has decided to turn a large chunk of his prime time CNN show into an ongoing tirade on assault weapons. What do you think of that? I'm certainly in favor of sensible gun control and I don't believe that all rights are absolute. There are reasonable limits on weapons as there are on other 'rights'.
While one may applaud his passion and even his goal, I can't help but think that his single-minded 'mission' has created a 'jump the shark' moment in the life of his show. Hardly a night goes by without Piers Morgan Tonight hitting the subject. The danger zone is that people will start tuning him out as soon as they feel he is too predictable and too focused on driving his opinion vs. drawing out the views of his guest.
The fact that he plays up his British citizenship while debating Americans' Second Amendment rights doesn't help his case very much, but again, he doesn't let that faze him. Unless CNN intends to turn itself into MSNBC or Fox News, one would have to wonder what he's thinking? Can viewers now expect Piers to turn his program into a soapbox for some of his other 'passions'? Having said that, one does have to hand it to him - that at least he gives his opponents an equal chance to combat him and to state their cases (even the looney conspiracy nut, Alex Jones). It's a big departure, and Piers is a smart guy, so one has to figure he knows what he's doing.

What's with the Three Amigos - Senators Brazeau, Harb and Duffy?

Sens. Brazeau (CPC), Harb (Lib) and Duffy (CPC)

Given the mounting media coverage of the Senators' declaration of the location of their home residences, one has to wonder what they're thinking? The rules of the Senate are, that if their official residence is far enough from Ottawa, then they can claim expenses on their (second) home in Ottawa. However, all three Senators have declared that their main residences are not in Ottawa and, thus, they qualify for their claimed expenses. Hhmmm. All evidence seems to undermine those claims.Now it is reaching ridiculous lengths with stories about Senator Duffy asking for an expedited health card from the P.E.I. Minister of Health's office - triggering even greater media coverage.

What should the Senators do?
First, they should declare that they believed they were operating under the Senate rules as they apply to one's residence. Second, they should apologize and state that they now realize their claiming of expenses was not in compliance with those rules. Third, they should issue a cheque to the government to put the situation right. Finally, they should do it before the Senate Internal Economy Committee rules later this month. End of case!

I guess the lesson here is that people have to keep learning the same lessons over and over again.
Until next time......

Prime Minister Trudeau? Possibly.

Welcome back;
After a lengthy focus on the American Presidential race, it's time to turn one's attention to what's happening in the Great White North®. The federal Liberal leadership race is well underway with something like 8 candidates seeking the golden, silver bronze prize. Let's take a look at the likely scenario of front-runner Justin Trudeau taking the mantle on April 6th, 2013 - the 45th anniversary of his father Pierre becoming Liberal leader - and automatically - the next Prime Minister of Canada.
Much has been made about Justin's lack of policy depth - and much of it is true. However, as can be seen from this latest op-ed, he is staking out a policy framework for himself, and thus the Liberal party in the future.
Five Factors Favouring Trudeau as PM
1. The 'time for a change' syndrome will favour him. A general election won't be held until 2015. By that time the Harper government will have been in power for almost a decade. In politics, friends  come and go, but enemies accumulate. By then, there will inevitably be a stronger 'wind of change' blowing through the landscape. It's hard to imagine a majority government, but a minority Parliament may well emerge.
2. He is from Quebec. A Liberal party must always have a strong base in Quebec if it hopes to emerge victorious. It will mostly be the Liberals vs. the NDP in Quebec - barring a miraculous recovery of the already-dead-but-not-quite-buried Bloc Quebecois (who are in a position to benefit from their kissin' cousins, the Parti Quebecois, who can manipulate masterfully every slight and 'humiliation' that will come its way.) A Trudeau-led Liberal party, however, has to find its footing on a very slippery mountain, and his late father's federalist brand had become almost toxic in many parts of the province in the intervening decades. So the jury is really out on this indicator.
3. A Generational Shift of voters is underway. As we saw in the Presidential election, Justin Trudeau will present a younger profile, a charismatic personality and a sophistication with new media that could attract a younger generation, who have under-voted for decades. So far he has staked out the marijuana de-criminalization plank in his platform, but he needs to develop a platform that can appeal to the 18-35 year old crowd. Even if he does so, he would need to motivate them to vote - which has been notoriously unsuccessful in the past.
4. Communications skills. Although he has enormous energy and a camera-friendly face, his communications skills need work. He has been known to blurt out comments, adopt an angry hectoring tone - in which he refers to himself in the third person - and is not always comfortable in handling tough questions. However, most of those skills are learned, but now that he is in the fishbowl every mistake will be Tweeted and Face-booked, so he will have to watch everything he says.

As with his father, he also has a gift for pulling off stunts - the most memorable being his successful boxing match with Sen. Patrick Brazeau. In that one, he demonstrated the strategic ability of under-performing and over-delivering (always useful in political life) as he beat the much tougher and stronger Brazeau.
5. Avoid getting boxed in. Picking up the boxing metaphor, trying to carve out a middle ground between the NDP's very capable, left-centre Tom Mulcair and the strongly confident, centre-right ground held by Stephen Harper is a narrow channel to navigate.

He has to hope that he can carve a path that will distinguish itself from the other two parties - all while avoiding their punches and hay-makers aimed at the Liberal party's mixed legacy which will still be remembered by many voters.
So, what does the 2015 election look like? It's such a long way away that it's impossible to predict. However, Mr. Trudeau is not to be written off by either the NDP or the Conservatives as he seems to be comfortable in the under-dog position. The key will be the state of the economy and the ability of the Conservative government to communicate its messages effectively, and if the NDP can sustain its current support level. Who knows?
Where were you 49 years ago?

Nov. 22, 1963 Dallas Texas. As those of us old enough to remember know, it was the day that John F. Kennedy was assassinated while driving in a motorcade. This video clip gives an excellent sense of what it was like to be watching television...going from the inane daytime show to the truly insane. The man the reporter interviewed within minutes of the assassination turned out to be one of the most famous amateur film-makers in history - the one and only Abraham Zapruder. Conspiracy buffs will always be convinced that Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone. I have never been persuaded of that, but our world has never been the same since. Even though JFK was a terribly flawed individual in his personal life, his public legacy has survived these nearly five decades.

By the way, for those who want to see a great film of the first assassinated President, I would highly recommend 'Lincoln'. Spielberg did an excellent job of painting an all-too-human picture of an ordinary man who became a truly heroic President.
To all of our American friends, have a Happy Thanksgiving and travel safely. Until next time...