Trudeau sweeps the country - how he did it?

Here we are the morning after the end of the longest Canadian federal election campaign in modern history. The election of a majority Liberal government in a profound change in the style and attitude to government, the media, and the policies and priorities of government. How did Justin Trudeau and his team do it?

Three years ago, I wrote my blog post, Prime Minister Trudeau? Possibly. In the piece I gave five reasons why he could very likely win the election - in spite of the fact that he was still just a candidate for the Liberal leadership. I review them today, not to say, 'I told you so', but to use them as a basis for understanding why he has gone from zero to the steps of 24 Sussex Dr. (the house where he lived as a child).

Much of it has come true. The single greatest reason, is 'time for a change' became not only dominant, but thanks to a very strategic and well-executed campaign, Trudeau was able to successfully position himself and his party as the clearest choice for change. After a decade in power, the tidal wave of 'change' takes out most political parties.
Stephen Harper was intent on positioning himself as 'stability vs. risk'. No matter how he tried to execute that theme to his favour, it didn't work. The 'niqab' issue was raw meat for the Conservative base and for Quebecers but it ended up shifting votes away from Tom Mulcair and the NDP in Quebec - over to the Bloc, and even the Conservatives.
Trudeau's opposition to Harper on the niqab issue didn't really hurt him, as he had little to lose in Quebec and everything to gain by the NDP slide.
Overwhelmingly, Justin Trudeau resonated with the voters - 70% of whom wanted change. He echoed their frustration with the status quo; he filled in his policy blanks with an unexpected shift to the left of Mulcair on the economy (although Mulcair hotly disputes that). The bold, but easily accessible commitment to $10 billion annual deficits, combined with his 'tax the rich' policy not only didn't hurt him, but was the key to his successful re-positioning from a middle-of-the-road 'all things to all people' position of the past to a strong alternative to Stephen Harper's increasingly 'double down' strategy to secure and animate the 'right' side of the political spectrum.
Trudeau continually exceeded expectations in most of the debates, and thanks to the steady Conservative airwar of 'He's just not ready' ads, he not only exceeded expectations, but scored several hits on Tom Mulcair in some of the debates. In my post-debate analyses on CPAC, CTV and other media interviews, I found myself saying consistently that Trudeau exceeded expectations, and would benefit the most from them.
The lingering strategic question, is 'why didn't the Conservatives try to reach an additional 5% of the voters'? That is a voter segment that is a 'disruptive' target. Meaning, that whatever appeals to the first 32% (the base) is anathema to them. These would be known as the '10 second Tories', or the Red Tories -more socially 'progressive' but fiscally conservative - who would have made the difference between failure and success. So-called 'dog whistle' politics, as embodied by roiling the 'niqab' waters, could never have reached that critical voter segment.
The inking of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) came late in the race and has not been disclosed in sufficient detail to make it into a  critical 'pocket book' issue for those voters. Ironically, all that the NDP and the Conservatives could do in the final days was to hammer the TPP from opposite sides in order to cement their own ballot questions. Trudeau deftly dealt with it, saying 'I'm pro free trade but we have to see the deal first'.
The last minute flare up of a 'scandal' involving a senior official providing advice to an energy company client, was the last gasp effort of both the Conservatives and the NDP but it came too late in the campaign, and it just didn't gain traction.
What can be learned out of the Trudeau victory?
1. When the voters are feeling anxious, don't give them fear, give them hope.
2. Engage the voters and the media. Stop hiding from debates (Conservative candidates seemed to send a signal to their voters that they didn't want to face them, or be accountable to them). And yes, the media can hurt you but when you start blaming them for your problems, it's more Nixon than Reagan.
3. Understand what leadership today is all about. It's about listening, consulting, developing a consensus, generosity of spirit, empowering and trusting others. Trudeau projected a leadership aura that gave people an optimistic sense of the future. All successful leaders have done that - FDR, Churchill, Kennedy, Reagan, Mulroney, Chretien, Jack Layton, to name but a few.
4. 'Fresh and new' with a bold agenda for change can trump experience, status quo policies with not much new being promised for the future.
5. To go past ten years in office is possible, but it's a narrow window to get through, and can only be done with a clear narrative and a strategy brilliantly executed over a number of years.
6. Campaigns matter! The third place Liberals at the beginning of the campaign were transformed through the 78 day campaign into a party and a leader that the public is willing to trust for the next four years.
Regardless of anyone's political leanings, that is an accomplishment worthy of the history books.

Until next time.....thank you to all candidates from all the parties who got involved and had the courage to run - all of whom want a better country. A big recognition to the voters who turned out in record numbers (the most since 1993) to cast their ballots. It's great for democracy and a sign of hope for the future.

6 Realities of the Duffy Trial

Senator Duffy Goes to Trial

Yesterday marked the opening day of the trial of Canada's best known suspended Senator, Mike Duffy. This 41 day trial, is gearing up to be a the highest-rated criminal trial in recent history. The media saturation coverage of their former broadcasting colleague guarantees that the trial will be a huge distraction for the electorate as the Harper government is trying to close the deal with voters in the run-up to the October election. As someone who has provided communications counsel on some political 'high profile' criminal trials (Ottawa Mayor Larry O'Brien) and Commissions of Inquiry (the Oliphant Commission of Inquiry into Mulroney/Schreiber), I have some thoughts on the realities of this trial.
6 Realities of the Duffy Trial
Although it's a bit of a mug's game to predict outcomes in any criminal trial - and  I certainly won't -  it is interesting to deduce what we can about the impacts and outcomes of this trial:
1. It's not a 'slam dunk' for the Crown. After the first day, it does seem pretty unlikely that Mr. Duffy can emerge from this trial without some of those charges sticking. After all, it took 13 minutes just to read the list of charges! However, it will prove difficult for the prosecution to reach the bar of 'beyond a reasonable doubt' on a number of those 31 criminal charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust. Assume that half of them will be thrown over the side  as that bar will prove elusive to reach. If this were a civil suit, 'the balance of probabilities' bar would be much more achievable.
2. 'A wrinkle a day' can do more damage than one bad day. There may be no 'smoking gun' about the Prime Minister's knowledge of his former Chief of Staff Nigel Wright's cutting a cheque for $90,000. The damage will be in the form of 'a wrinkle a day' of bad news for the Harper government over the course of Mr. Duffy's carefully orchestrated defence strategy. His lawyer, Don Bayne is clearly brilliant at what he does and is positively surgical in his strategy and tactics. Expect to see numerous incisive cuts, jabs and twisting of the knife as he gives Mr. Duffy a powerful defence.
3. Stephen Harper may be the real beneficiary of the media tendency to 'overkill'.  It happened with the Rob Ford soap opera last year which triggered a backlash among voters who didn't want to hear any more about him, and they seemed to close their minds about any further criticism of Mr. Ford. It's hard to sustain 41 days of compelling interest in this story - except for the issue fanatics, commentators and journalists - who will be deeply fascinated by every twist and turn. Stephen Harper's base has already made up their mind about what they think of Mike Duffy. So the real battle is the not-so-committed voter who may - or may not - find the Duffy trial all that fascinating or may take a 'pox on all their houses' attitude to politicians.

4. Stephen Harper needs to manage public expectations. The media - and large segments of the population - expect him to be bloodied and battered by this - and if it turns out to be far less than expected, he may survive intact just by staying cool and continuing with his own agenda. That was evident yesterday when the Harper Government attempted to 'change the channel' for voters by making some pre-budget announcements. Although such news-making efforts are rarely successful at cancelling out the 'bad' news; nevertheless, watch for the Harper government to counter the trial's narrative with one of their own - heavily focused on the economy.
5. Leave the prosecution for the Crown. The Opposition Leader, Tom Mulcair, has a chance to return to his prosecutorial style of attack in Question Period throughout the Duffy trial. This will give him a chance to recover some of the ground he has lost to Justin Trudeau. He knows that Mr. Trudeau's attacks are rarely as effective as his. He must know by now that the voter rarely falls in love with the prosecutor. However, both of them have to be cautious about getting in the way of the story emerging from the Ottawa courthouse a few blocks away. If Mulcair and Trudeau get too 'hot' or outraged over the daily trial news, they will merely look partisan and ineffective. Sometimes humour is the best way to inflict some damage.

6. Why not have some fun with it? The NDP didn't waste time in poking fun at Sen. Nancy Ruth and her inopportune comments about the Auditor General daring to question her about her expense claims for breakfast on the mornings that she would be on board a plane. She told a 'scrum' of reporters, in high dudgeon that she had breakfast because she had to suffer the outrage of "cold Camembert and broken crackers". (Although the clip of her on TV pronouncing Mike Duffy 'guilty' was that much more delicious than the Camembert.)

So, yes it's fascinating to follow - even on Twitter - which is how I did it yesterday. Mr. Duffy will take a pummelling, of course. Mr. Harper will be hurt, but he will have over four months to try to recover. There will be enough pain to go around, but the greatest pain recipient will be the Senate, which has absorbed so many hits to its reputation that now an openly hostile public wants to see it eliminated.

In the meantime.....we've got the Masters this weekend....and the Senators are still alive (the hockey version that is:) so life can't be all that bad!

Until next time.....
Follow me on Twitter @mclomedia where I will be - what else? Tweeting on the trial and other matters.

Politics at the movies

Coming soon...to a multiplex from hell...Politics at the Movies

     Here we are at the mid-summer mark. As it has turned out to be a particularly tragedy-laced   summer internationally - the shooting-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH 17 in Ukraine; the explosive and deadly bombings and killings in Gaza; the strange and tragic crash of Air Algerie in Mali...and now an Ebola outbreak in West Africa! If one cares about the world, it's not exactly the hazy, lazy days of summer, is it? 

     Laura Peck and I have been traveling - to Washington, Boston (where we completed the Certificate program, Teaching the Case Study Method at the Harvard Business School), Toronto, Labrador, Halifax and a few other places - all for work, alas, but I've tried to squeeze in a day here and there to read, think, swim and try to enjoy a pretty hit-and-miss summer when it comes to weather.
     Along with an occasional media interview, I've even managed to read a few books! Based on the recommendation of my daughter, Caroline, right now I'm deep into the second of a planned trilogy of novels about the life Cicero, by Robert Harris. The first was Imperium and the second - that I also can't put down - is Conspirata (I hope by the time I finish it Robert Harris will have announced the publication of the closing chapter!). Who knew that in the 60s B.C. they played politics as dirty and as personal as today? Now there's fewer murders, but more political deaths by Twitter® and smart phone videos. They would make a great premium cable mini-series for sure..... all of which leads me into the theme of this summer version of my blog post.
For Your Consideration...Politics at the Movies

Here are some sequels, re-makes and other summer flicks that you may want to consider as we head into the second half of summer. Will they be enough to rescue the anemic Hollywood Box Office this summer?

Putin in his first role as a typical tourist.

1. A Most (Un) Wanted Man... Now that Navi Pillay, the U.N. Commissioner for Human Rights, has labelled what happened to the shooting down - and the crash site aftermath - of Malaysia Air Flight 17, a 'war crime', perennial bad buy Vladimir Putin has done it again.

Harper freezes Putin's assets

However, in this international thriller, Putin comes head-to-head with Canada's own Stephen Harper who smacks him down by freezing his assets and those of his cronies. Will it be enough to stop the 'Back in the U.S.S.R.' tendencies of nemesis Putin? Not so fast, as Vlad [played by aging martial arts "star" Steven Seagal, who is a vocal admirer of Putin] is every bit the conniving vicious thug that one always suspected he was.

Seagal and his pal Vlad

[Spoilers ahead!] Reports that he has managed to squirrel away $40 billion into his personal bank accounts, real estate and other nefarious 'investments' just pours salt into the wounds of those who have been particularly outraged by his Ukrainian atrocities. Vlad has played the role of villain to an extent that not even John Le Carré could have imagined. Not satisfied with stealing territories that don't belong to him, Seagal shows Putin stealing upwards of $40 billion through state-sanctioned extortion and bullying on the home front. The real question is, will EU countries turn a blind eye in hopes of maintaing their oil and gas imports? Will Harper be able to rally his fellow G7 leaders to avert a global catastrophe? You don't want to miss this climax!

Bill threatens to upstage Barack

2. A Solitary Man... After years of disappointment in his dreams and dealing with his unhappy arranged marriage to the Republican-led Congress, Barack Obama [Denzel Washington] has mentally checked out from his life (but with none of the creepy fantasies and drugs from the original movie). Barack Obama has been hit with a lot of criticism as his career seems to be running out of gas. Critics say that he is 'dis-engaged' with all the big issues - while fund-raising, playing golf and dining with his Hollywood pals. Does his 'no-drama Obama' persona give people the impression that he's lost interest? As the movie reveals, Barack is never going to be the Bill Clinton 'feel your pain' kind of President no matter what. But can he pull it together for a final act to cap his career? Stay tuned!

3. Secondary Colors... With Emma Thompson reprising her Primary Colors role, this sequel switches focus as Bill [played once again by John Travolta] plays second fiddle to Hillary who is gearing up  for the Presidency in 2016. All jokes about pants suits and bad hair days have fallen by the wayside as Hillary proves she's up for the role of her lifetime. Yes, she stumbles - in one poignant scene, she tries to relate to ordinary folks, claiming she and Bill were essentially 'broke' when they left office. (Somehow, knowing each had a multi-million dollar book deal awaiting their signatures, triggered audience hisses and boos in the screening I attended.) Her speech-making fees  -  upwards of $250,000 - puts her in the category of ... well....Bill! So, there will be no pity party for her as she revs up her campaign early in the New Year. Although nothing is a done deal (as she herself learned in 2008), this movie promises that Hillary will be a formidable candidate. No more 'Tammy-Wynette-stand-by-your-man' for her. The only vacuuming going on in this movie is the dollars from the pockets of Democrat donors. 

House of Cards- Trudeau, Harper, Mulcair

4. House of Cards: Another Foreign Adaptation... Frank Underwood would have a field day with this trio of politicos up north. The versatile Kevin Spacey hits the mark with this Canadian Netflix-only version of the political drama. This Hollywood North taxpayer-subsidized soap opera highlights the looming horse race in the 2015 federal election race, among Stephen Harper [Kevin Spacey], Justin Trudeau [Rob Lowe] and Thomas Mulcair [Tommy Lee Jones - he's can't capture the 'bearded Canadian intellectual' side of Mulcair, but he can play the crotchety aspects in his sleep]. The movie shows that anything can happen in an election campaign.  It deftly illustrates what happened in recent provincial campaigns - Quebec and Ontario when the pundits had it wrong.  The RCMP's laying of 31 charges against Mike Duffy [deftly played by SNL's Bobby Moynihan] triggers Tommy Lee Jones - as Mulcair - to play the defining role of his career - as the coldly incisive prosecutor. Although Mr. Mulcair would be best to remember that no one loves the prosecutor.

So, as we approach the Mid-Summer Night long weekend, it's perhaps the last chance for Hollywood to recover from a less-than-stellar box office summer. Let's hope that the movie of your summer beats anything that you see here! 

Until next time.....

Jimmy, we hardly knew ye

Welcome back...

'Jimmy, we hardly knew ye'
This post is devoted to Jim Flaherty whose State Funeral was broadcast earlier today. Laura and I were working in Los Angeles traveling when our son Brendan phoned us with the shocking news of his death last Thursday.  Although we've been in Winnipeg the past few days,  we were able to make it back home just in time to catch the broadcast. While flying home, I thought back over the Jim Flaherty that I knew.
Jim's gift of friendship
Jim had the gift of friendship and there were many more who had deeper, long-lasting friendships with him, than I. However, being in the business of media training and coaching, I had the privilege of working with Jim Flaherty in his various Cabinet portfolios provincially, as well as his first leadership run. Several years later, as Finance Minister he came to me to prepare him prior to the delivery of his first Budget Speech. In between, Laura and I would bump into him on many different occasions and we always enjoyed our conversations.
The last time I spoke with him
Being Irish-born, I found it easy to strike a rapport with him - a friendship which stayed true all the way through, including the last time we chatted a few weeks ago. It was after Sunday Mass at Notre Dame Cathedral and as Laura and I introduced to him our young adult children - Caroline, Brendan and Liam, we all joked about our shared propensity for Irish names. That triggered the rest of the conversation that was mostly about his three sons - Galen, Quinn and John. He positively glowed as he spoke of them. Although he clearly looked like he was struggling with his health, he was as hard-working as ever. In fact, he was on his way to the office to put the final touches on his Budget Speech - the last one he was to deliver, only a day later. When he resigned from Cabinet a few weeks later, we all thought that now he would be able to take the time to rest and get his health back. Tragically, it was not to be.
                                                     Jim 'slips away to the next room'

The State Funeral - with everyone wearing green ties and scarves in his honour - was a great tribute to Jim, as he was one of the most significant Finance Ministers in history. Prime Minister Harper did a superb job of capturing - with humour and emotion - both the tender side and the tough, determined side of Jim Flaherty. He revealed his own feelings as he addressed Jim's three sons, Galen, John and Quinn, about how he dealt with the loss of his own father eleven years ago. It was a very meaningful comment from a Prime Minister who doesn't often reveal his own personal feelings. Jim's family were remarkable in their poise and their tributes, that gave us insight into his role as a devoted father and a husband. Quinn's message to his father was both humorous and touching: "Put your feet up. Lay your head back. Close your eyes and relax. We will take it from here." And they did!
His wife Christine Elliott, M.P.P., in one of the most unimaginably difficult things to do, gave a wonderful tribute, including these lines from the ballad, Death is Nothing at All, by Henry Scott Holland:
"Death is nothing at all.
I have only slipped away to the next room.
I am I and you are you.
Whatever we were to each other, 
That, we still are.
Call me by my old familiar name.
Speak to me in the easy way
which you always used.
Put no difference into your tone.
Wear no forced air of solemnity or sorrow.
Laugh as we always laughed
at the little jokes we enjoyed together.
Play, smile, think of me. Pray for me.
Let my name be ever the household word
that it always was.
Let it be spoken without effect.
Without the trace of a shadow on it."

His sister Norah, in her funny but profound tribute, revealed that his siblings and parents always called him 'Jimmy'.
Jimmy we hardly knew ye
The Irish song, "Johnny I Hardly Knew Ye" was used as the title of a book by Kenneth O'Donnell and Dave Powers about their boss, John F. Kennedy, that is a wistful way of saying, 'I'd wished we'd spent more time getting to know you'. That would capture how most people who knew him would feel about 'Jimmy' Flaherty.

On a personal level, what will be left behind was the memory of his laughter and deft wit - sardonic, self-deprecatory and playful - that left one feeling better about life and the world. He told more with his eyes than with his words at times. Helpful, in the sound-bite world inhabited by a Cabinet Minister whose every word is measured by the markets.

Something else stays with me in his personal story.  While he was a Princeton student, Jim supported himself by driving a cab and bussing tables. I think that tells us a lot about his character and his ability to understand the realities of people's lives, and of those who need a 'hand up' [as illustrated by The Abilities Centre he created in his beloved hometown of Whitby].

His most significant contribution, of course, was his handling of the October 2008 economic meltdown, and the actions that he took - in concert with the Prime Minister and the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney - to save the jobs of hundreds of thousands of Canadians and to ensure the continued flow of money in the economy.

As we saw in the State Funeral and in all the tributes that were shared in the days following his death, was how he was able to maintain personal friendships and respect across the aisle. Even though he had a partisan streak in him and could fight fiercely for what he believed, he had the gifts of friendship and empathy and was able to develop friendships with politicians of every stripe. We need more Jim Flahertys'!

So, to adapt a toast from one of my favourite movies, 'Waking Ned Devine',
"Take a drink and remember the man. And raise your spirits to the sky. Raise them to Jim Flaherty. God bless you Jim, and may we be forever in your debt." 

Jimmy, we hardly knew ye!

2013 Communications Disasters

Welcome back!
It's that time of year when we pay tribute to the Communications Disasters of 2013.  The purpose is to recognize the people and the organizations who defied the odds, went beyond the merely expected and tarnished their brands. But hey, at least you can say..... they did it their way!
1. Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse.....it does!

 Paula Deen The cooking guru from Savannah, Georgia who managed to take an allegation of racist comments and single-handedly used it to destroy her own empire.  At first, she ducked the Today Show to respond to the accusations by citing 'exhaustion'. Then when she finally appeared several days later, the damage had already been done. She was branded a 'racist' and took a pounding in all media - especially online. She lost her credibility and watched her brand become badly tarnished. She either received very bad crisis communications counsel, or she didn't listen to it.
2. Lululemon's customers just want him wrapped in his (over) stretched leotards and thrown to the wolves. 

Lululemon founder and Chair Chip Wilson. Responding to questions on Bloomberg TV's Street Smart program, Wilson clearly was blaming women of a certain weight for causing the pilling problems about which customers had begun to complain. But the final straw was this so-called 'apology' on his website:
“I’m sad, I’m really sad, I’m sad for the repercussions of my actions, I’m sad for the people of Lululemon who I care so much about, that have really had to face the brunt of my actions.” This is an apology?! The focus of his apology should have been to his customers and to women, whom he had clearly insulted.
3. The one good thing is ... smoking crack can never again be seen as 'cool'....

Rob Ford was the clear winner of the "Disaster of the Year" Award. The long-running, slow-motion, disaster featured crack-smoking, drunken binges, insulting comments about his wife, attacks on the Police Chief, video surveillance of the Mayor exchanging packages with known criminals, stolen video of the Mayor allegedly smoking crack, massive denials and then reversals, bowling over a fellow City Councillor, allegations of groping, and a threatened lawsuit earned in a TV interview with newly minted host, Conrad Black, in which he implied that a Toronto Star reporter who had been taking photos of his backyard fence was a pedophile. Of course, becoming the number one fodder for jokes on Letterman, Leno, Kimmel and Fallon turned him into an international celebrity. Watch this clip of Rob and Doug Ford clearly enjoying the video of Jon Stewart on the first (and only) episode of Ford Nation on the Sun News Network. Defiant at all times, even while stripped of many of his powers, he seems determined to stand for re-election. However, at year's end, just when you thought he doesn't have a prayer for re-election...what does he do? He oversaw the Christmas time hydro ("it's not an emergency") blackout in Toronto to mixed reviews. For Mayor Ford, perhaps there is a Santa after all?
4. Nothing like a 'spending scandal' to boil taxpayers' blood, right?

Nigel Wright        Sen. Mike Duffy

The original story about three or four Senators, who were alleged to have claimed expenses to which they were not entitled, morphed into a full-blown crisis of credibility for the Harper Government with the revelation of the $90,000 paid personally by the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff, Nigel Wright, to Senator Mike Duffy. Throw in revelations that the Conservative Party Fund paid for Sen. Duffy's legal bills and there you have it - a full-blown crisis that knocked out of the headlines the government's accomplishments, including the EU Free Trade Deal. With possible criminal charges and no end in sight for the crisis, the Harper Government needs a Plan B if they're going to emerge fully from it.
5. I promise you that you can keep your own health plan if you want. Well not keep it exactly, but visit it, you know..just sign up on the internet...d'oh!
A mere 12 months after his election victory in which 'Obama-care'
played a major role, the failed launch of the internet program triggered enormous public outrage. It didn't help that it took the Administration a couple of months to get hold of the situation and put it (mostly) back on track. All of this came on the heels of a recovering economy that the President would clearly have wanted to be lead the news. That's gotta hurt.

6. At least you have to give him 'E' for Effort! 
The Lac Mégantic Train Derailment and the bizarre news conference four days later held by MMA Chairman Ed Burquardt will be a classic 'how not to' for years to come. 




Paying Tribute and Looking Ahead
So, as we look ahead to 2014, one has to hope that those in positions of responsibility will learn from these disasters. Nah! That's not going to happen. Remember why crisis communications is an on-going business....apparently some people have to learn the same lessons over and over again!

A few disasters were exceptionally well handled - the Boston marathon bombing was well handled even as the city spent several days with the bombers on the loose. The Mayor, the police and community leaders did a terrific job of pulling the city together in a united way. That is one of the hallmarks of effective crisis communications. When the Red Sox won the World Series later that year, it brought it all together in such an emotional and positive way.

The Alberta flood was a nightmare that was well handled by Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi in cooperation with Prime Minister Harper and Premier Alison Redford. The Mayor's ability to pull those communities together at a time of emotional chaos was a critical factor in the response to those crises.



The qualities of true leaders

So let's remember, finally, the two leaders who seemed to have understood what it means to be a leader:
First, Pope Francis (Time's Man of the Year) whose simple style and powerfully inclusive messages have served to change the climate, the tone and the priorities of the Church in a few short months. As a result, he has created the opportunity to be a truly transformational leader throughout the world.

The passing of Nelson Mandela in December has reminded the world of his incredible journey that has inspired the world. I just saw Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, and was inspired all over again by what a true leader - even though he was an admittedly flawed human being - can do in the face of seemingly overwhelming odds. The genuine worldwide sorrow at his passing underscores what he meant to the entire world.
Happy New Year!
On behalf of Laura and the entire McLoughlin Media company and family, we want to wish all of our clients, friends and suppliers a Happy, healthy and 'no crisis' New Year!

Is there any chance for Rob Ford?

Welcome back!
Who is the happiest person in Canada right now? Why, that might well be Stephen Harper, who just a week or so ago was mired in the 'Senate scandal' and now sees a media universe dominated with far greater outrage and media fixation....the Rob Ford Follies. Laura and I spent a lot of time in Toronto last week, and the mood is not one of fun and games...it's a profound sadness that has taken hold over the soap opera. It's only as one goes farther afield across Canada and the United States does a certain giddiness take hold...leading to Saturday Night Live, the Daily Show and Letterman's Top Ten. It's not something that Toronto needs - as a city, it needs to be taken seriously. In this post, we will take a look to see if there really is any chance for Rob Ford at this late date?

Coming soon to Sun News Network. I would be amazed if some creative reality TV producers haven't already inquired about the possibility of a series starring the Ford family. Given the international fame already generated by the daily feats of PR blunders by Mayor Rob and Brother Doug, it's entirely likely that they could rival Duck Dynasty or the Kardashians for viewers.
Just when you think there's been nothing new to comment on regarding the Mayor, here comes another outrage to feast upon.
I have been doing my share of media interviews - although not with any sense of glee - but to try to understand how intelligent people can violate every rule of ethical and effective crisis management - let alone common sense. Earlier in my career I had coached the late Doug Ford Sr. when he was a member of the provincial government. I found him to be a common sense, self-made, smart man who could sense political BS from a mile away. Ironically, it was those qualities of his father that made Rob Ford so appealing to the electorate back in 2010 when he ran for Toronto's mayoralty. It's exactly what seems to have left him over the past year or so. I have worked for a number of Mayors who have found themselves in trouble - some through no fault of their own - but the one common denominator that was needed to help them, was their recognition that something profound had to change in their conduct and messages. In Rob Ford's case, his political instincts seem to have left him; his ear for the 'Ford Nation' seems to have turned to tin. All the exposure on CNN's Anderson Cooper and Fox News is not going to help him. And now the only question remaining in his career is...
Is there any chance for Rob Ford?
Well, the odds are against him, but he has a slim chance. 

Many point to the comeback king of crack-smoking mayors, Washington DC's Marion Barry whose FBI sting video of his arrest while caught in mid-puff, earned him a prison sentence. His infamous comment about the woman in the video, "the bitch set me up," put him in a deeper hole of public esteem. Nevertheless, only a few short years later he was re-elected Mayor, and, in fact, still serves on City Council. Now that's not an exact comparison; and Ford has not even been charged - and likely will never be - for his admission. However, Barry didn't lie - and as his supporters endlessly repeated - "he did his time". Mayor Ford chose not to tell the truth nor did he serve any penalty. However, Ford Nation is deeply loyal and, so far, have proven (amazingly so) to the Mayor. That support can dissipate and fracture. Ultimately, when people get tired of a circus, they don't want to go back. That is the ultimate danger to Rob Ford's future - that people just get tired of it. He needs to change the channel, but he appears to be in a deep rut, and doesn't want to get out of it.
Everybody loves a redemption story, but there's been no redemption here.
His refusal to take a medical leave of absence and clean up his act has been one of the greatest failures of judgment in the entire sad spectacle. What he has failed to understand is that the public is enormously forgiving (Bill Clinton, Marion Barry, Gov. Mark Sanford etc. etc.) so long as you eat humble pie and take your punishment. If he had taken a leave for treatment last May or June when the story of the crack video first surfaced, he had a window of opportunity to get cleaned up. However, as the Toronto police surveillance tapes have shown, he seemed to spend an inordinate amount of time this summer engaged in suspicious activity with at least one known criminal (even though he seemed to know he was being followed by the cops). That is a complete failure of common sense, no matter how the die-hard Ford Nation tries to paint it. 
Stop blaming the media for his troubles.
Sure, the Toronto Star has been a thorn in his side. But they turned out to be right about the crack video (the existence of which the Mayor had long denied - until confirmed by Chief Blair). The Mayor treats most of the media as the enemy - which appeals to his base - but is not going to help him in any possible recovery scenario. 
Tell the truth first - not eventually. The Mayor doesn't seem to understand that people will forgive everything except lies. So tell the truth immediately - not when all other options have been exhausted.
What is one thing he could do - even now - to give him a chance for re-election? 
Make a dignified statement admitting fully his mistakes, apologize to the Toronto Chief of Police, Bill Blair (for the demand that he resign), apologize to his Executive Committee whom he has alienated, apologize to the people of Toronto for putting them through this spectacle, and then take whatever time it takes - one to two months at the least - to get treatment. Come back sober, fresh, determined and genuinely focused on the taxpayer. And....he would have a chance (a slim one, but a chance, nonetheless). Without it, the circus will continue, and long before election day next October, the Ford Nation will have fractured, and, it will be an ignominious defeat worthy of Anthony Weiner.
Sad, sorry, and ....it didn't have to be.

Until next time.......

What should the PM do?

Welcome back to the Senate "House of Horrors'. Just in time for Hallowe'en, the issue of the expenses 'scandal' has exploded into a media-frenzy which has captured the attention of the public like nothing else in recent years - thanks to the fumbled attempt to suspend the three Senators without pay. The three Senators have made impassioned  pleas for 'due process' and they seem to have succeeded in getting Canadians to put a hold on the suspension.

Following the latest 'wrinkles' revealed by Sen. Mike Duffy and his lawyer, Donald Bayne, and the release of emails revealing a second cheque being paid to Duffy by the Conservative Party to cover his legal fees, the issue has spun out of control. Sen. Pamela Wallin got some traction in her speech with her call for 'due process'. [The High School Confidential part starring Sen. Marjorie LeBreton and Sen. Carolyn Stewart-Olsen triggered more snickers than impact.] In her second appearance, she dropped that and honed in on the 'due process' issue to maximum effect. Sen. Patrick Brazeau revealed that he was offered a chance to reduce his punishment if he were to apologize. Interestingly enough, it served to open the door to a potential compromise. All of this at a very awkward and frustrating time for the Prime Minister and the Party on the eve of their Calgary Conference later this week.
So what should the Prime Minister do?
1. "If you've broken the eggs, you should make an omelette." Anthony Eden had it right, at least on that line. The Prime Minister should let it be known that he would embrace the Liberal amendment to hold off on the suspension and proceed immediately to a special Senate committee to hold hearings on it. In turn, Sen. Carrignan, the Conservative leader in the Senate could amend it to limit the time for the committee to meet and to vote based on the evidence before them. The three Senators would be invited to appear - as would Nigel Wright and others - to provide testimony, and answer questions. Yes, they should be allowed to have legal counsel, given the current RCMP investigation and the legal consequences. Then the Committee could vote its recommendations to the Senate as a whole on what, if any, should be the consequences for the Senators.

2. Won't this make the Tories look bad? There are no pure options. Yes, the Twitterverse would be filled with people saying that - but it's not likely that they're Tory voters anyway. Besides, now that new 'evidence' and allegations have emerged, it's worth clearing the air, and not letting it fester any further. It would provide a clear opportunity for the Prime Minister to say that he has listened to Canadians and has changed his mind. It's about restoring the issue that helped the Conservatives get into power - accountability. They need to look for the opportunity in this crisis, or as Homer Simpson put it, a 'crisi-tunity'.

3.  The PM should hold a news conference and clear the air about what he knew and when he knew it. Personally, I'm confident that he has nothing to

hide and can handle any questions from the Parliamentary Press Gallery that he is thrown. It would give him a chance to take care of, for example, his comments that he 'dismissed' Nigel Wright - rather than 'reluctantly' accepted his resignation. It may not be worth a hill of beans, but it's important to clear up the apparent contradiction. Also, watching him perform in the House this week (when he didn't hand it off to his Parliamentary Secretary), he was strong, clear and cool.
His sound bite of the week will probably be used again: "You're darn right I told him he should repay his expenses." The PM needs to do what he does best. Non-combative, strong, but 'more in sadness than with anger'.
4. Is the damage to the PM fatal? Given past history, and depending on whether or not there are any further damaging 'revelations', it is probably not permanently damaging. Despite all the heat developing around the issue, there still is no proof that the PM knew - either about the $90,000 Nigel Wright cheque or the $13,500 Party cheque to Sen. Duffy's lawyers. It's bruising, yes. And that's why it needs to be aired in public and then put to rest.
5. The PM needs to get back to his agenda - the economy...and fast. With news that the government is well ahead of its 2015 balanced budget commitment, combined with the huge EU free trade deal, this balloon has to be 'popped' and he needs the focus to return to his strong suit, the economy.
The Obama Administration's Struggles

Meanwhile, the Obama Administration is trying to recover from fumbles on two fronts - one domestic - the disastrous rollout of 'Obamacare'' and the other -  the revelations of spying on Allies - including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the Spanish and French governments. The key is to move quickly, and this, they did. The President held a news conference and used it as an opportunity to eat crow on the website roll-out and vow to get to the bottom of it.

The international 'bugging' embarrassment was handled by White House spokesman Jay Carney - who parsed his words carefully (allowing others to deliberately read into the remarks the silent admission that they had indeed bugged the Chancellor's telephone calls). Carney was also called upon to admit that - contrary to the President's previous assurances - some Americans would indeed lose their existing health insurance.
The decision to get out there and communicate is essential to credibility. Although they could have moved on a peremptory basis, instead of just reacting to the stories, nevertheless when the Administration did move, they were able to begin the process of regaining credibility.

Finally, the social media world was gripped with the battle of wits between the BBC's acerbic Jeremy Paxman and bad boy comedian Russell Brand. Paxman should have spent some time checking out some previous efforts by Brand to turn the tables on his interlocutors, as he did recently on MSNBC's Morning Joe. No matter what you think of his arguments, Brand seems to get a special joy out of throwing expectations to the wind and saying whatever he wants. I guess Katy Perry lost her fascination with it, but hey, it works!
Until next time....I'm going to focus on the rest of the World Series. Go Red Sox!

It's never too late to do the right thing

Welcome back!
So much has gone on in the past two weeks since my last blog post - from the nightmare of Syria to the ongoing soap opera of some Canadian Senators to the terrible tragedy at the U.S. Navy Yard in Washington DC, the news has been troubling to say the least.
Costa Concordia - Righting the Ship
One cause for celebration amidst these depressing scenarios is the raising of the Costa Concordia off the coast of Italy nearly two years after its sinking. A true feat of engineering and determination, the successful righting of the ship is a hopeful salve to an upsetting time.
Syria and the Obama Administration

Much has been written about the on-again, off-again threats against Syrian poison gas sites by President Obama and Sec. of State John Kerry; the mixed messages; the after-the-fact (sure-to-fail) attempt to garner Congressional support. The ultimate embarrassment was the emergence of Vladimir Putin as a 'peace-maker' in a negotiated deal between Russia and the U.S. to remove those weapons of mass destruction. What are some lessons out of this messy situation?

Five Key Lessons from Syria
1. The U.S. President was conflicted in his roles. His initial instinct was to strike hard and fast as Assad had clearly crossed the 'red line' that the President drew long ago. Once the President announced that he would strike militarily, he had painted himself into a corner. U.K's Prime Minister David Cameron found himself in the same dilemma when the House of Commons voted against him. That clearly had an impact on the President.

2. The process was not well managed. In the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy brought the nation together, shared with them what they had discovered (Russian missiles in Cuba), and put in place a blockade with a clear warning to the Russians. He didn't threaten - or strike - even though he was strongly advised to by his military advisers. He used back-channel communications between Bobby and  the Russian Ambassador to find a peaceful solution. In this case, the President and the Secretary of State seemed to be on different channels - and all of it live on CNN.
3. Don't ask what you know you won't get. The public is tired and cynical - and Congress is no mood to risk political capital on this issue - the only thing to unite both parties. Even though the U.N. inspectors have now confirmed that Assad did indeed use poison gas on innocent people, the public still cannot be galvanized into action. After Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, they just don't want to go there anymore.

4. The Value of Delay. While waiting for Congress to get its act together, John Kerry blurts out a response at a news conference that changes the entire direction of the issue. This opened the door for Putin to step in and offering to intercede with Assad. With that delay came the path to a peaceful solution. [Although how to punish Assad still remains a source of deep discord between Obama and Putin.]

5. Can Obama 'Right the Ship'? Yes, so long as he learns the lessons out of this situation, Americans may thank him from keeping them out of direct military involvement. He has proven time and again his ability to recover and he only has a year left before the mid-terms to demonstrate his bona fides internationally. After all, he won the Nobel Peace Prize shortly after being elected. Who knows, maybe he could win it again?
How to End the Senate 'Scandals'
The Canadian people have clearly made their minds up about the four Senators at the centre of the 'scandal' involving expense claims and housing allowances. They have become so turned off that the majority want to end the Senate altogether. [Personally, I think that would be an over-reaction and a real shame. A reformed Senate could be a major step forward in bringing more accountability and a more vigorous democracy in Canada. But that's a subject for another day.]
In this post, we are looking at the issue of the spending scandals and what it will take to end the reality series that threatens to be renewed for another season. So far, Sen. Mac Harb has paid back the money and resigned. Notice how quickly he is out of the limelight? What should Senators Duffy, Wallin and Brazeau do?

How to End the Senate 'Scandal'?

First, Senators Duffy, Brazeau and Wallin need to do the right thing....and resign. Without a resignation, they will continue to draw heat - not only onto themselves, but more importantly, the entire Senate, let alone the Harper government. They have violated the rules, and Canadians expect that there should be consequences. Just paying back the money doesn't do it. Notice how Sen. Mac Harb has already disappeared off the radar screen since his resignation?
Secondly, the Senators need to apologize fully and unreservedly for their actions. No excuses, no blame, no attacks. Without it, the outrage only continues.
Thirdly, the Harper government needs to move forward on a refreshed agenda. They need to demonstrate that they are not captives of the issue. That will be difficult, as the Opposition is already demonstrating with yesterday's 'Twitter Question Period' that they intend to keep adding heat. Stephen Harper is out there doing what Prime Ministers can do - namely, make news. His performance at the G20 was strong, and on issues such as Child Protection and Syria (while staying out of it, he has communicated his profound disgust for what the Syrian government has done. Canadians seem happy with his response so far.)

 Remember, even if things have not been well handled, it's never too late to do the right thing.

Until next time....

Common sense ain't that common

Welcome back!
1t's been a very long time indeed since my last blog posting - must be the pace of our lives - but of course I have not stopped thinking about writing a new post. Laura and I have travelled to New York, (twice), Vancouver, Toronto (many times), Peterborough, Boston (for my Kennedy School reunion - hard to believe it's been 30 years!) and all points in between. It seems that between the thought and the deed of actually writing the blog post, there is a huge chasm of.....procrastination! So, enough of that and let's get to it! 
Scandal-apaloosa
The news is filled with 'scandals' involving Mayors (Michael Applebaum of Montreal faces 14 charges of corruption and Mafia dealings) and Toronto Mayor Rob Ford's alleged crack-cocaine smoking). And as if that wasn't enough the continuing saga of Senators and their expenses and residence claims;  I commented on Global TV's 'The West Block' with Tom Clark on the crisis management of the issue by the Prime Minister's Office.  These 'scandals' certainly grab the media's attention. As with many news stories, their prominence may not match at all their importance in the scheme of things. Long-time readers will recognize this phenomenon as 'urgency trumps importance'.
Hyper-partisanship is here to stay
As we see in political culture everywhere, the era of hyper-partisanship is here to stay. First, the Harper government targeted newly chosen Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau with some tough ads, with the theme, "he's just not up to the job". Then Mr. Trudeau countered with an ad of his own. How did that go? Here is my appearance on CTV's PowerPlay with Don Martin in which I give my analysis of whether or not they worked?

Now the Harper government has turned its fire on Justin again with attacks on his charging charities for for his speeches (and at least one wants their money back). Mr. Trudeau has offered to talk with any of them that may have an issue over their payment to him - probably the only step he could have taken. Of course, there is nothing wrong with charging for one's speech - but it couldn't have come at a better time for the Harper government after weeks of attack on the Sen. Mike Duffy - Nigel Wright file. After all, the best defence is a good offence.
Taunting - and Pressuring - the Russian Bear
The leaders of the G8 nations are holding their meeting in Northern Ireland (and it was intriguing to see Stephen Harper take on Vladimir Putin, in no-uncertain terms over Putin's backing of 'thugs', that is,  the brutal Assad regime in Syria.) The Prime Minister seems to have grown very comfortable with these meetings and, - perhaps buoyed by his successful and historic speech to the British Parliament - was spurred to stand up to the former KGB spook and master of the bare-chested photo-op, Vladimir Putin. 

Now the Siberian tiger-hunting, President-for-life wouldn't be too used to this kind of treatment. See the painfully staged media interview in which the normally bare-chested alleged Super Bowl ring-stealer and his wife, Lyudmila, announced that they were divorcing. You've gotta ask, 'what took her so long?'


How not to handle allegations of spousal abuse

Speaking of abusive husbands, what to make of the shocking photos of British art collector and legendary ad exec Charles Saatchi with his hands around his wife, Nigella Lawson's throat at a swish Mayfair restaurant? The public reaction was powerful and immediate in the condemnation of Saatchi - as well as of the diners who seemed satisfied to take photos but not to intervene. His wife gathered up her dignity and promptly moved out. 
Saatchi in damage control mode
Saatchi scrambled to recover his badly damaged reputation, as follows:"About a week ago, we were sitting outside a restaurant having an intense debate about the children, and I held Nigella's neck repeatedly while attempting to emphasize my point," Saatchi, 70, said in the statement."There was no grip, it was a playful tiff. The pictures are horrific but give a far more drastic and violent impression of what took place. Nigella's tears were because we both hate arguing, not because she had been hurt," he continued.  

Saatchi cautioned for assault

Well, this didn't exactly sound humble, apologetic or anything even close. For such an experienced ad man, one would think he would know that this 'I did nothing wrong' approach is no way to deal with such a humiliating experience that he had triggered for his wife. Where was the apology to her? Sorry Mr. Saatchi, only a fool would believe that story line. It's the classic difference between advertising and public relations. Being skilled in one doesn't make someone skilled in the other.

Mr. Saatchi cautioned for assault by police

Then Mr. Saatchi - no doubt by now with a full-court press of advisors - showed up at a London police station to accept a caution for assault. That apparently unique British legal maneuver gave him the opportunity to cooperate with the police in their investigation and he was right to get himself to the police station in order to be cited with it. One can only empathize with Nigella Lawson and the pain and humiliation she is enduring. Several years ago, Laura and I had the opportunity to chat with her father, Sir Nigel Lawson, former British Chancellor under Margaret Thatcher, when he spoke in Ottawa. He expressed to us such pride and delight about her success as a chef, author and television host in her own right. One has the feeling that she will rise to the challenge of dealing with it - certainly better than her husband.

There's always 'common sense'

All of these issues - from politics to diplomacy to society - are 'cautions' that no matter how much money or political success, one can never replace common sense  which, after all, isn't so common. 

Until next time.....

Prime Minister Trudeau? Possibly.

Welcome back;
After a lengthy focus on the American Presidential race, it's time to turn one's attention to what's happening in the Great White North®. The federal Liberal leadership race is well underway with something like 8 candidates seeking the golden, silver bronze prize. Let's take a look at the likely scenario of front-runner Justin Trudeau taking the mantle on April 6th, 2013 - the 45th anniversary of his father Pierre becoming Liberal leader - and automatically - the next Prime Minister of Canada.
Much has been made about Justin's lack of policy depth - and much of it is true. However, as can be seen from this latest op-ed, he is staking out a policy framework for himself, and thus the Liberal party in the future.
Five Factors Favouring Trudeau as PM
1. The 'time for a change' syndrome will favour him. A general election won't be held until 2015. By that time the Harper government will have been in power for almost a decade. In politics, friends  come and go, but enemies accumulate. By then, there will inevitably be a stronger 'wind of change' blowing through the landscape. It's hard to imagine a majority government, but a minority Parliament may well emerge.
2. He is from Quebec. A Liberal party must always have a strong base in Quebec if it hopes to emerge victorious. It will mostly be the Liberals vs. the NDP in Quebec - barring a miraculous recovery of the already-dead-but-not-quite-buried Bloc Quebecois (who are in a position to benefit from their kissin' cousins, the Parti Quebecois, who can manipulate masterfully every slight and 'humiliation' that will come its way.) A Trudeau-led Liberal party, however, has to find its footing on a very slippery mountain, and his late father's federalist brand had become almost toxic in many parts of the province in the intervening decades. So the jury is really out on this indicator.
3. A Generational Shift of voters is underway. As we saw in the Presidential election, Justin Trudeau will present a younger profile, a charismatic personality and a sophistication with new media that could attract a younger generation, who have under-voted for decades. So far he has staked out the marijuana de-criminalization plank in his platform, but he needs to develop a platform that can appeal to the 18-35 year old crowd. Even if he does so, he would need to motivate them to vote - which has been notoriously unsuccessful in the past.
4. Communications skills. Although he has enormous energy and a camera-friendly face, his communications skills need work. He has been known to blurt out comments, adopt an angry hectoring tone - in which he refers to himself in the third person - and is not always comfortable in handling tough questions. However, most of those skills are learned, but now that he is in the fishbowl every mistake will be Tweeted and Face-booked, so he will have to watch everything he says.

As with his father, he also has a gift for pulling off stunts - the most memorable being his successful boxing match with Sen. Patrick Brazeau. In that one, he demonstrated the strategic ability of under-performing and over-delivering (always useful in political life) as he beat the much tougher and stronger Brazeau.
5. Avoid getting boxed in. Picking up the boxing metaphor, trying to carve out a middle ground between the NDP's very capable, left-centre Tom Mulcair and the strongly confident, centre-right ground held by Stephen Harper is a narrow channel to navigate.

He has to hope that he can carve a path that will distinguish itself from the other two parties - all while avoiding their punches and hay-makers aimed at the Liberal party's mixed legacy which will still be remembered by many voters.
So, what does the 2015 election look like? It's such a long way away that it's impossible to predict. However, Mr. Trudeau is not to be written off by either the NDP or the Conservatives as he seems to be comfortable in the under-dog position. The key will be the state of the economy and the ability of the Conservative government to communicate its messages effectively, and if the NDP can sustain its current support level. Who knows?
Where were you 49 years ago?

Nov. 22, 1963 Dallas Texas. As those of us old enough to remember know, it was the day that John F. Kennedy was assassinated while driving in a motorcade. This video clip gives an excellent sense of what it was like to be watching television...going from the inane daytime show to the truly insane. The man the reporter interviewed within minutes of the assassination turned out to be one of the most famous amateur film-makers in history - the one and only Abraham Zapruder. Conspiracy buffs will always be convinced that Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone. I have never been persuaded of that, but our world has never been the same since. Even though JFK was a terribly flawed individual in his personal life, his public legacy has survived these nearly five decades.

By the way, for those who want to see a great film of the first assassinated President, I would highly recommend 'Lincoln'. Spielberg did an excellent job of painting an all-too-human picture of an ordinary man who became a truly heroic President.
To all of our American friends, have a Happy Thanksgiving and travel safely. Until next time...