Time to clear the decks

Happy New Year!
 Now that we are all rested and recovered from a bruising year, it's time to turn our attention to 2015 and what may be in the cards politically. This is the time of year when consultants, journalists and social media aficionados routinely make predictions about what the future holds. I am going to resist the temptation to forecast, as it's a mug's game, at best.
However, I think it's worthwhile to examine some of the tectonic shifts, and offer cues and tips which can provide some guidance going forward. I have done a few media interviews on the subject recently and here is one of them on Global TV's The West Block. In that interview, my emphasis was on the key question that most winning leaders have to address, namely "who speaks for me?". In elections, that means the middle class, who are the big 'get'.
Clearing the decks
Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party are clearing the decks for the scheduled October 2015 election. Today he took care of two headaches that were soaking up too much media coverage and damaging his brand.

Shuffling Minister Fantino

The first one - he shuffled Veterans Affairs Minister Julian Fantino out of that post where he had alienated many veterans' groups - over to Associate Minister of National Defence. This removes him from further attacks and puts him back in a portfolio where he has already served and is definitely lower profile. Mr. Harper's pick, Ontario MP Erin O'Toole, who has an Air Force background, is known as a good, solid communicator with an emotional intelligence that is critically important to the task at hand.

                                                   

Harper v. Wynne Face-Off  on 'Hockey Night in Canada'

The second 'clearing of the decks' is that the Prime Minister is (finally) meeting with Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne - with whom he hasn't met in over a year. The fact that he's squeezing it in before he attends the World Junior Hockey Championship between Canada and Russia, he hopes might remind voters of the highlight of his year: his retort to Vladimir Putin, "I guess I'll shake your hand, but I only have one thing to say to you -  you need to get out of Ukraine".

The key message underlying this move is to demonstrate that he can get along with others of a different stripe, and in Wynne's case, someone who had used him as a punching bag in that election campaign.

It's the Economy, Stupid 
He needs to turn most of the debate back to the economy, and with oil falling below $50 US, it will be good news for consumers, but bad news for the federal government's revenues (as it is for Alberta). So, even though the longer he waits to call the election, the bigger that deficit promises to be. However, Mr. Harper knows his core brand is the economy and his preferred ballot question is "who do you trust to steer the economy in difficult and dangerous times?"

The 3 D's facing Mr. Harper: 'Daily Dose of Duffy'

'3 D's for Harper: Daily Dose of Duffy'

He also needs to clear the decks as there will be a cross wind coming from the Mike Duffy trial scheduled to eat up 40 days of media coverage from April to June this year, just at the Tories need a clear pre-summer launch to the campaign. It will be a challenge for the Prime Minister to shape the media agenda in the face of the 3 D's for Mr. Harper: the 'Daily Dose of Duffy'.
What Mr. Harper needs to remind himself of, is that governments tend to get re-elected if their core theme is 'we did what we said we would do'. If that's what the voters think, then he has a good chance of being re-elected, with -at least- a minority government.

From the 'there are no silver linings in this playbook' Bill Cosby
Then there's Bill Cosby who doesn't seem to understand that when you're under fire for a series of sexual assaults, you don't go out and do a stand-up tour. Does he really need the money? Or is he just addicted to the (rapidly declining) adulation?
Kudos to Porter Airlines
In the throes of a truly sad year-end story, of a young girl who was bumped from a flight along with her father on their way to her chemotherapy treatment in Toronto, Porter Airlines moved immediately to make it right, by apologizing to her and offering free flights to her and compensation to her father.
Now that's a classic 'how to' in public relations, and, not so coincidentally, in doing the right thing after the wrong thing has been done.
Kudos to Porter for remembering that.

Now, if only some politicians could learn the same lesson!

Until next time!

Politics at the movies

Coming soon...to a multiplex from hell...Politics at the Movies

     Here we are at the mid-summer mark. As it has turned out to be a particularly tragedy-laced   summer internationally - the shooting-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH 17 in Ukraine; the explosive and deadly bombings and killings in Gaza; the strange and tragic crash of Air Algerie in Mali...and now an Ebola outbreak in West Africa! If one cares about the world, it's not exactly the hazy, lazy days of summer, is it? 

     Laura Peck and I have been traveling - to Washington, Boston (where we completed the Certificate program, Teaching the Case Study Method at the Harvard Business School), Toronto, Labrador, Halifax and a few other places - all for work, alas, but I've tried to squeeze in a day here and there to read, think, swim and try to enjoy a pretty hit-and-miss summer when it comes to weather.
     Along with an occasional media interview, I've even managed to read a few books! Based on the recommendation of my daughter, Caroline, right now I'm deep into the second of a planned trilogy of novels about the life Cicero, by Robert Harris. The first was Imperium and the second - that I also can't put down - is Conspirata (I hope by the time I finish it Robert Harris will have announced the publication of the closing chapter!). Who knew that in the 60s B.C. they played politics as dirty and as personal as today? Now there's fewer murders, but more political deaths by Twitter® and smart phone videos. They would make a great premium cable mini-series for sure..... all of which leads me into the theme of this summer version of my blog post.
For Your Consideration...Politics at the Movies

Here are some sequels, re-makes and other summer flicks that you may want to consider as we head into the second half of summer. Will they be enough to rescue the anemic Hollywood Box Office this summer?

Putin in his first role as a typical tourist.

1. A Most (Un) Wanted Man... Now that Navi Pillay, the U.N. Commissioner for Human Rights, has labelled what happened to the shooting down - and the crash site aftermath - of Malaysia Air Flight 17, a 'war crime', perennial bad buy Vladimir Putin has done it again.

Harper freezes Putin's assets

However, in this international thriller, Putin comes head-to-head with Canada's own Stephen Harper who smacks him down by freezing his assets and those of his cronies. Will it be enough to stop the 'Back in the U.S.S.R.' tendencies of nemesis Putin? Not so fast, as Vlad [played by aging martial arts "star" Steven Seagal, who is a vocal admirer of Putin] is every bit the conniving vicious thug that one always suspected he was.

Seagal and his pal Vlad

[Spoilers ahead!] Reports that he has managed to squirrel away $40 billion into his personal bank accounts, real estate and other nefarious 'investments' just pours salt into the wounds of those who have been particularly outraged by his Ukrainian atrocities. Vlad has played the role of villain to an extent that not even John Le Carré could have imagined. Not satisfied with stealing territories that don't belong to him, Seagal shows Putin stealing upwards of $40 billion through state-sanctioned extortion and bullying on the home front. The real question is, will EU countries turn a blind eye in hopes of maintaing their oil and gas imports? Will Harper be able to rally his fellow G7 leaders to avert a global catastrophe? You don't want to miss this climax!

Bill threatens to upstage Barack

2. A Solitary Man... After years of disappointment in his dreams and dealing with his unhappy arranged marriage to the Republican-led Congress, Barack Obama [Denzel Washington] has mentally checked out from his life (but with none of the creepy fantasies and drugs from the original movie). Barack Obama has been hit with a lot of criticism as his career seems to be running out of gas. Critics say that he is 'dis-engaged' with all the big issues - while fund-raising, playing golf and dining with his Hollywood pals. Does his 'no-drama Obama' persona give people the impression that he's lost interest? As the movie reveals, Barack is never going to be the Bill Clinton 'feel your pain' kind of President no matter what. But can he pull it together for a final act to cap his career? Stay tuned!

3. Secondary Colors... With Emma Thompson reprising her Primary Colors role, this sequel switches focus as Bill [played once again by John Travolta] plays second fiddle to Hillary who is gearing up  for the Presidency in 2016. All jokes about pants suits and bad hair days have fallen by the wayside as Hillary proves she's up for the role of her lifetime. Yes, she stumbles - in one poignant scene, she tries to relate to ordinary folks, claiming she and Bill were essentially 'broke' when they left office. (Somehow, knowing each had a multi-million dollar book deal awaiting their signatures, triggered audience hisses and boos in the screening I attended.) Her speech-making fees  -  upwards of $250,000 - puts her in the category of ... well....Bill! So, there will be no pity party for her as she revs up her campaign early in the New Year. Although nothing is a done deal (as she herself learned in 2008), this movie promises that Hillary will be a formidable candidate. No more 'Tammy-Wynette-stand-by-your-man' for her. The only vacuuming going on in this movie is the dollars from the pockets of Democrat donors. 

House of Cards- Trudeau, Harper, Mulcair

4. House of Cards: Another Foreign Adaptation... Frank Underwood would have a field day with this trio of politicos up north. The versatile Kevin Spacey hits the mark with this Canadian Netflix-only version of the political drama. This Hollywood North taxpayer-subsidized soap opera highlights the looming horse race in the 2015 federal election race, among Stephen Harper [Kevin Spacey], Justin Trudeau [Rob Lowe] and Thomas Mulcair [Tommy Lee Jones - he's can't capture the 'bearded Canadian intellectual' side of Mulcair, but he can play the crotchety aspects in his sleep]. The movie shows that anything can happen in an election campaign.  It deftly illustrates what happened in recent provincial campaigns - Quebec and Ontario when the pundits had it wrong.  The RCMP's laying of 31 charges against Mike Duffy [deftly played by SNL's Bobby Moynihan] triggers Tommy Lee Jones - as Mulcair - to play the defining role of his career - as the coldly incisive prosecutor. Although Mr. Mulcair would be best to remember that no one loves the prosecutor.

So, as we approach the Mid-Summer Night long weekend, it's perhaps the last chance for Hollywood to recover from a less-than-stellar box office summer. Let's hope that the movie of your summer beats anything that you see here! 

Until next time.....

6 Rules for Managing a Scandal

Welcome back! It's been a whirlwind time at McLoughlin Media as we celebrate our 30th anniversary in April. Laura and I have been traveling from New York (media training); to L.A. (message development); to Montreal (media training); and Toronto (presentation skills). Earlier this week I was in beautiful St. Louis doing a seminar in crisis communications. So life has been busy.

Just yesterday, we completed the term for our course, 'Political Management and the Media' in the Clayton H. Riddell Masters of Political Management program at Carleton University. Once again, a great group of students who represent the political spectrum and who are an inspiration for the future of politics.

On April 7th Laura and I will be attending the Women in Communications and Technology Awards Gala at the Westin Hotel in Ottawa where Laura will be receiving the Communications Excellence Award. Congratulations Laura!

After that, Laura and I are back in L.A. where we are on a panel discussion at the Spring Meeting of the American Bar Association, April 11th, called "Scandal Scarred: Managing Your Clients Through a Political or Government Scandal.  We're looking forward to it.

Which brings me to my topic of this post....

Six Rules for Managing a Scandal
Over the past thirty years, we have consulted on behalf of clients in the political, corporate, government and non-profit sectors. Here are some rules for managing scandals.
1. Make sure your client doesn't become a joke. This week's outrage was that Mayor Ford had to stand up and change two votes - in which he had voted AGAINST Council congratulating Canada's Olympic and Para-Olympian teams, and AGAINST naming a street after Nelson Mandela. Jimmy Kimmell had another field day with that piece of news, and even Bill Clinton weighed in [ironic isn't it?] Interestingly enough, it looks like Rob Ford will probably avoid criminal charges for his actions, but will it save his political future? Right now, it's even odds that he could pull off a victory in October against John Tory and Olivia Chow, as they seem determined not to bring up the Mayor's ahem peccadillos.

Dimitri and Eve

2. Don't bring in people who are 'toxic' to manage other people.
The antics of Conservative MP Eve Adams and her fiancé, Conservative Party Executive Director Dimitri Soudas have tripped up Prime Minister Harper's efforts to shake loose last year's Senate 'Scandal'. Now that Mr. Soudas has been let go, there isn't anyone in his camp willing to defend him.

3. Turn the channel. Mr. Harper's strongest suit as Prime Minister was on show last week as his visit to Ukraine, Germany and the G7 in Brussels showed him to be resolute in his stance for justice and call to action on Putin's take-over of Crimea. However, when he arrived home to the swirling controversy over the Dimitri Soudas-Eve Adams side-show, he must have been furious that he couldn't spend one day basking in the success of his European trip.

Premier Redford Takes Her Leave

4. Style of leadership matters. The resignation of Alberta Premier Alison Redford underscores the importance of leading by listening and motivating - not by command and control. A government requires a team. It is not a one-person power machine. No matter the progress she was making in Alberta's economy and development, her style began to grate - first internally, and then with the public.


5. Understand and respect your own brand. Every successful government understands its brand - that is, it's promise to voters. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie still hasn't recovered the damage to his 'just folks, man of the people' brand as a result of the 'Bridge' scandal. In Canada, for three elections, the Conservative brand was powerfully and persuasively built, but it has eroded badly since the last election - on political reform, the military, veterans and even solid management. The Conservatives have only 18 months to re-discover their brand and get off the defensive.

6. Make sure your message hits the target. The government's 'Canada's Economic Advantage' campaign is long in the tooth and has lost its ability to move the dial. The party's 'He's in way over his head' personal attack ads on Justin Trudeau seem weirdly personal (clips of him removing his shirt) and not serious.  Justin Trudeau's F-bomb at a charity boxing match last week, followed by his cursing on television last night won't cause permanent damage. However, it does play into the counter-narrative that the Conservatives have proven so adept at creating - with former Liberal leaders Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff. Will lightning strike three times? Although Mr. Trudeau seems to have a teflon coating, the Conservatives are betting heavily that the attacks will start to stick.

So those are only some of the rules for managing a scandal. But they're a start!

Until next time......welcome to spring!

Check out our latest pocket tips books. 

Common sense ain't that common

Welcome back!
1t's been a very long time indeed since my last blog posting - must be the pace of our lives - but of course I have not stopped thinking about writing a new post. Laura and I have travelled to New York, (twice), Vancouver, Toronto (many times), Peterborough, Boston (for my Kennedy School reunion - hard to believe it's been 30 years!) and all points in between. It seems that between the thought and the deed of actually writing the blog post, there is a huge chasm of.....procrastination! So, enough of that and let's get to it! 
Scandal-apaloosa
The news is filled with 'scandals' involving Mayors (Michael Applebaum of Montreal faces 14 charges of corruption and Mafia dealings) and Toronto Mayor Rob Ford's alleged crack-cocaine smoking). And as if that wasn't enough the continuing saga of Senators and their expenses and residence claims;  I commented on Global TV's 'The West Block' with Tom Clark on the crisis management of the issue by the Prime Minister's Office.  These 'scandals' certainly grab the media's attention. As with many news stories, their prominence may not match at all their importance in the scheme of things. Long-time readers will recognize this phenomenon as 'urgency trumps importance'.
Hyper-partisanship is here to stay
As we see in political culture everywhere, the era of hyper-partisanship is here to stay. First, the Harper government targeted newly chosen Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau with some tough ads, with the theme, "he's just not up to the job". Then Mr. Trudeau countered with an ad of his own. How did that go? Here is my appearance on CTV's PowerPlay with Don Martin in which I give my analysis of whether or not they worked?

Now the Harper government has turned its fire on Justin again with attacks on his charging charities for for his speeches (and at least one wants their money back). Mr. Trudeau has offered to talk with any of them that may have an issue over their payment to him - probably the only step he could have taken. Of course, there is nothing wrong with charging for one's speech - but it couldn't have come at a better time for the Harper government after weeks of attack on the Sen. Mike Duffy - Nigel Wright file. After all, the best defence is a good offence.
Taunting - and Pressuring - the Russian Bear
The leaders of the G8 nations are holding their meeting in Northern Ireland (and it was intriguing to see Stephen Harper take on Vladimir Putin, in no-uncertain terms over Putin's backing of 'thugs', that is,  the brutal Assad regime in Syria.) The Prime Minister seems to have grown very comfortable with these meetings and, - perhaps buoyed by his successful and historic speech to the British Parliament - was spurred to stand up to the former KGB spook and master of the bare-chested photo-op, Vladimir Putin. 

Now the Siberian tiger-hunting, President-for-life wouldn't be too used to this kind of treatment. See the painfully staged media interview in which the normally bare-chested alleged Super Bowl ring-stealer and his wife, Lyudmila, announced that they were divorcing. You've gotta ask, 'what took her so long?'


How not to handle allegations of spousal abuse

Speaking of abusive husbands, what to make of the shocking photos of British art collector and legendary ad exec Charles Saatchi with his hands around his wife, Nigella Lawson's throat at a swish Mayfair restaurant? The public reaction was powerful and immediate in the condemnation of Saatchi - as well as of the diners who seemed satisfied to take photos but not to intervene. His wife gathered up her dignity and promptly moved out. 
Saatchi in damage control mode
Saatchi scrambled to recover his badly damaged reputation, as follows:"About a week ago, we were sitting outside a restaurant having an intense debate about the children, and I held Nigella's neck repeatedly while attempting to emphasize my point," Saatchi, 70, said in the statement."There was no grip, it was a playful tiff. The pictures are horrific but give a far more drastic and violent impression of what took place. Nigella's tears were because we both hate arguing, not because she had been hurt," he continued.  

Saatchi cautioned for assault

Well, this didn't exactly sound humble, apologetic or anything even close. For such an experienced ad man, one would think he would know that this 'I did nothing wrong' approach is no way to deal with such a humiliating experience that he had triggered for his wife. Where was the apology to her? Sorry Mr. Saatchi, only a fool would believe that story line. It's the classic difference between advertising and public relations. Being skilled in one doesn't make someone skilled in the other.

Mr. Saatchi cautioned for assault by police

Then Mr. Saatchi - no doubt by now with a full-court press of advisors - showed up at a London police station to accept a caution for assault. That apparently unique British legal maneuver gave him the opportunity to cooperate with the police in their investigation and he was right to get himself to the police station in order to be cited with it. One can only empathize with Nigella Lawson and the pain and humiliation she is enduring. Several years ago, Laura and I had the opportunity to chat with her father, Sir Nigel Lawson, former British Chancellor under Margaret Thatcher, when he spoke in Ottawa. He expressed to us such pride and delight about her success as a chef, author and television host in her own right. One has the feeling that she will rise to the challenge of dealing with it - certainly better than her husband.

There's always 'common sense'

All of these issues - from politics to diplomacy to society - are 'cautions' that no matter how much money or political success, one can never replace common sense  which, after all, isn't so common. 

Until next time.....