6 Realities of the Duffy Trial

Senator Duffy Goes to Trial

Yesterday marked the opening day of the trial of Canada's best known suspended Senator, Mike Duffy. This 41 day trial, is gearing up to be a the highest-rated criminal trial in recent history. The media saturation coverage of their former broadcasting colleague guarantees that the trial will be a huge distraction for the electorate as the Harper government is trying to close the deal with voters in the run-up to the October election. As someone who has provided communications counsel on some political 'high profile' criminal trials (Ottawa Mayor Larry O'Brien) and Commissions of Inquiry (the Oliphant Commission of Inquiry into Mulroney/Schreiber), I have some thoughts on the realities of this trial.
6 Realities of the Duffy Trial
Although it's a bit of a mug's game to predict outcomes in any criminal trial - and  I certainly won't -  it is interesting to deduce what we can about the impacts and outcomes of this trial:
1. It's not a 'slam dunk' for the Crown. After the first day, it does seem pretty unlikely that Mr. Duffy can emerge from this trial without some of those charges sticking. After all, it took 13 minutes just to read the list of charges! However, it will prove difficult for the prosecution to reach the bar of 'beyond a reasonable doubt' on a number of those 31 criminal charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust. Assume that half of them will be thrown over the side  as that bar will prove elusive to reach. If this were a civil suit, 'the balance of probabilities' bar would be much more achievable.
2. 'A wrinkle a day' can do more damage than one bad day. There may be no 'smoking gun' about the Prime Minister's knowledge of his former Chief of Staff Nigel Wright's cutting a cheque for $90,000. The damage will be in the form of 'a wrinkle a day' of bad news for the Harper government over the course of Mr. Duffy's carefully orchestrated defence strategy. His lawyer, Don Bayne is clearly brilliant at what he does and is positively surgical in his strategy and tactics. Expect to see numerous incisive cuts, jabs and twisting of the knife as he gives Mr. Duffy a powerful defence.
3. Stephen Harper may be the real beneficiary of the media tendency to 'overkill'.  It happened with the Rob Ford soap opera last year which triggered a backlash among voters who didn't want to hear any more about him, and they seemed to close their minds about any further criticism of Mr. Ford. It's hard to sustain 41 days of compelling interest in this story - except for the issue fanatics, commentators and journalists - who will be deeply fascinated by every twist and turn. Stephen Harper's base has already made up their mind about what they think of Mike Duffy. So the real battle is the not-so-committed voter who may - or may not - find the Duffy trial all that fascinating or may take a 'pox on all their houses' attitude to politicians.

4. Stephen Harper needs to manage public expectations. The media - and large segments of the population - expect him to be bloodied and battered by this - and if it turns out to be far less than expected, he may survive intact just by staying cool and continuing with his own agenda. That was evident yesterday when the Harper Government attempted to 'change the channel' for voters by making some pre-budget announcements. Although such news-making efforts are rarely successful at cancelling out the 'bad' news; nevertheless, watch for the Harper government to counter the trial's narrative with one of their own - heavily focused on the economy.
5. Leave the prosecution for the Crown. The Opposition Leader, Tom Mulcair, has a chance to return to his prosecutorial style of attack in Question Period throughout the Duffy trial. This will give him a chance to recover some of the ground he has lost to Justin Trudeau. He knows that Mr. Trudeau's attacks are rarely as effective as his. He must know by now that the voter rarely falls in love with the prosecutor. However, both of them have to be cautious about getting in the way of the story emerging from the Ottawa courthouse a few blocks away. If Mulcair and Trudeau get too 'hot' or outraged over the daily trial news, they will merely look partisan and ineffective. Sometimes humour is the best way to inflict some damage.

6. Why not have some fun with it? The NDP didn't waste time in poking fun at Sen. Nancy Ruth and her inopportune comments about the Auditor General daring to question her about her expense claims for breakfast on the mornings that she would be on board a plane. She told a 'scrum' of reporters, in high dudgeon that she had breakfast because she had to suffer the outrage of "cold Camembert and broken crackers". (Although the clip of her on TV pronouncing Mike Duffy 'guilty' was that much more delicious than the Camembert.)

So, yes it's fascinating to follow - even on Twitter - which is how I did it yesterday. Mr. Duffy will take a pummelling, of course. Mr. Harper will be hurt, but he will have over four months to try to recover. There will be enough pain to go around, but the greatest pain recipient will be the Senate, which has absorbed so many hits to its reputation that now an openly hostile public wants to see it eliminated.

In the meantime.....we've got the Masters this weekend....and the Senators are still alive (the hockey version that is:) so life can't be all that bad!

Until next time.....
Follow me on Twitter @mclomedia where I will be - what else? Tweeting on the trial and other matters.

BP Crisis Communications Disaster

Welcome back!
Could it get any worse for BP in its efforts to get in the driver's seat of the crisis in the Gulf? On Thursday I did a series of interviews on CBC Radio stations in the drive time slot from one end of the country to the other. Take a listen to this one on CBC Radio's All in a Day 91.5 FM with host Alan Neal to get my take on how BP's crisis communications efforts are working out [it starts at 7.00 minutes into the podcast, following an interview with Taylor and Peyton, two wonderful young girls with a mission to help the wildlife in the Gulf nightmare]
http://podcast.cbc.ca/mp3/ottallinaday_20100602_33301.mp3

BP's 'Failure to Staunch'...and to communicate
1. BP failed to manage expectations - of the media and the public. The goal is to under-promise and over-deliver; not the other way around. They raised so many expectations throughout that they lost credibility by the final Top Kill or was that Top Hat?
2. They failed to manage perceptions - of caring and competence. They didn't communicate that they were listening or caring. At one point early on when people in the affected Gulf communities complained that they weren't getting answers to their questions from BP, a senior executive was quoted as saying, "I've been too busy to worry about communications." Ouch!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIA_sL4cSlo

3. "I would like my life back." A comment such as that from the CEO Tony Hayward, was tone deaf when the families of eleven oil rig workers will never have their lives back. It triggered anger and ridicule. He did the right thing and quickly apologized for it, but it lingers on in (media) public memory.
4. While the public suggestion line sounds like a good idea on the surface, after 43 days it sounded more like desperation.
5. Engage the fishing industry and local communities more. While it's true they have to be trained as volunteers, putting them to work mitigating the damage gives people a constructive role.

The 'Spilling Fields' (with apologies to Jon Stewart) 
We have done numerous seminars over many years for the United States Coast Guard on major spills and emergencies, so I know that it's not easy - and in this case with unprecedented difficulties due to the mile deep site of the 'leak' it's testing everyone to the maximum. Former Commandant of the Coast Guard and National Incident Coordinator Admiral Thad Allen has done a solid job in communications on behalf of the Coast Guard; however in all of the multi-party 'Unified Command' training which we conducted, a key principle is that the communications effectiveness of the Responsible Party is essential to have effective communications on behalf of the whole team.

Notice how the President has clearly positioned his Administration against BP - with not-so-veiled threats of criminal prosecution only the latest salvo. Here he is on Larry King Live last night trying to position himself as in charge, while holding BP's feet to the uh...spill:
http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/us/2010/06/03/lkl.obama.hurricane.oil.responsible.cnn.html

If BP doesn't plug it very quickly, watch for Mr. Hayward's head to roll, and possibly a 'change in command' at the top of the Crisis Management team. Nobody ever said it was fair, but that's the reality of trying to manage the worst environmental disaster of its kind in American history.

Let's hope BP not only plugs the leak, but plug the gap in their communications too!

Until next time.....

Recovering from a Crisis

Welcome back!
Well here I am in St. John's Newfoundland. A truly beautiful city by the sea with some of the warmest and most generous people I know. Laura and I are here to do a seminar. We arrived just on the tail of the first major snowstorm of the winter and head back tomorrow night into the eye of the storm in Ottawa.

Of course we are saturated with the Tiger Woods 24 hour 'all-news-all-the-time' world. You think the Copenhagen Summit is important? That Afghanistan troop levels matter? That governments are up to their eye-balls in debt? What are you crazy? Didn't you hear? Tiger's a 'cheetah' and that's the biggest story of the year, right? Time Magazine will probably name him Man of the Year. However, as we know, "news" is not necessarily what's 'important' but what's 'urgent'. If it happens to athletes and celebrities; if you throw in sex and strange 'accidents' you have the perfect brew!

The way Tiger has handled it was obviously not the right way - it was begrudging, vague, and too little, too late to get into the driver's seat (no pun intended). So what should he do and say now that: (i) the mistress count is at nine and growing; (ii) his mother-in-law had to be taken to the hospital in the middle of the night, (iii) his long-suffering wife has likely already left him, (iv) the police suspect he had over-dosed on prescription medications. The spiral downward is picking up momentum.

Tiger Needs to Take Hold of this Situation

The two key questions that one is asked in managing a crisis are: 'what do we do and what do we say'?

Let's start with what he should do

1. Announce that he is taking a long leave of absence to focus on his family and marital troubles. This will serve to cool out the situation and build anticipation of his re-entry - refreshed and rarin' to go.
2. After about three months (in time for the Masters) he should return to his game with some semblance of stability in his personal life. If it's to be a divorce, then so be it. Uncertainty is what will kill him.
3. Find an opportunity before he returns to do a television interview with a respected broadcaster. Perhaps Matt Lauer? Anderson Cooper? Oprah?  Diane Sawyer? Larry King? In the interview, he answers as many questions as he can to clear the air. Then he does what he does best -  by getting back to work.
4. Once he returns he has to pick up where he left off, and win tournaments. When he does, his sponsors will be relieved and the controversy will fade into the background.

What should he say?
"I am deeply sorry for the pain I caused my wife and my family. This was entirely my fault, and there are no excuses or explanations to justify what I did. My wife is a wonderful person, and a great mother.
I don't blame her for leaving. She had to do what she thought was right. I hope that one day I can make this right and have my children proud of their dad.

I want to reiterate my apology to you, my fans. Your words of support have helped me more than you can know. I know I have let you down and I will do my best to make up for this by redoubling my efforts on the golf course and to live my life in a way that can justify your faith in me.

Finally I just want to say a few words to the many young people here and around the world who have looked up to me as a role model. I have always felt honored by that and I am sorry that I have not lived up to that. I do not want you to repeat my mistakes. I have learned some very important lessons in this terrible situation.  The most important lesson is to be true to your values. I wasn't always true to mine and I deeply regret that."

Tiger has to remember that even though things look bleak, almost all of these situations are ultimately recoverable. But he must move boldly now, if he wants to recover from this personal crisis.

Until next time, let's all drop the stones and get back to our glass houses.