This just in...pollsters get it wrong!

Welcome back!
There's lots to talk about since I last blogged two weeks ago. Laura Peck and I have been busy with the release of the 2012-13 editions of two of our pocket tips books - Overcoming Panic & Fear and Encountering the Media. As well, we've been marking final exams in our Riddell Graduate Program in Political Management course in Strategic Communications. My travels also took me to Cincinnati Ohio for a seminar and I was very impressed with the city and the beauty of its downtown - even nicer than I had remembered it over a decade ago.
However, just in case you thought it's been all work and no play, I did manage to squeeze in four rounds of golf in Ocean City, Maryland with about 40 close friends. My golf game was better than expected - which may not be saying much. Perhaps I benefited from low expectations or just plain luck, but I'll take it anyway!

Which brings me to some comments on issues in the news - north and south of the border.

Alberta Re-Elects the Redford Government:
Pundits and Pollsters Caught Flat-Footed
It was hard to say what was more shocking - Premier Alison Redford and her government getting re-elected or the realization that the pundits and pollsters got it all so wrong in their assessment of the voters.
Four Factors that Re-Elected the Redford Government
How did the Redford campaign do it? There were several factors:
1. Danielle Smith's Wildrose Alliance Party peaked too soon. Following early stumbles by the Redford team out of the gate, the Wildrose campaign found themselves in a front-runner's position. Clearly, they weren't ready for that. They had been trailing the Progressive Conservatives for months, and had more than likely prepped for a come-from-behind kind of campaign. Instead, as front-runners, the swing voter looks at them through a different lens - that is, can they form a credible government? In reverse, the Redford PCs had prepped for a front-runner campaign and within days had to switch to the under-dog role. They pulled that off very well.
2. Wildrose's failure to insulate itself. When several Wildrose candidates were revealed to have made some homophobic and racist remarks, it seems to have under-scored the doubts that the Wildrose Alliance could form a credible and inclusive government. Danielle Smith didn't over-react - and for that she was praised by pundits and media commentators. However, her under-reaction may have been more damaging than she had realized. She needed to insulate her party from those comments, and didn't do so.

3. The fading Danielle Smith and the surging Alison Redford. Danielle Smith was a  strong and powerful communicator throughout much of the campaign. However, as she headed towards apparent victory she went low-profile - failing to reinforce the wavering voters. She needed to confirm the impending buy. In contrast, Alison Redford picked up steam and became stronger and more persuasive as the campaign got closer to the finish line. Even on election day, she put in a grueling multi-stop tour giving the impression that she had the passion and the vision for the job.
4. Know your voter universe. Clearly, Premier Redford had a clear view of her 'voter universe' - moderate Albertans - which seemed for much of the campaign to be too narrow and populated by the NDP and Liberals. Thus, she seemed to leave the right-of-center totally open to the Wildrose Alliance. Yet that gamble paid off hugely. It turned out there was a constituency for the PC Party and she zeroed in on it like a laser.
5. Push back on criticism but get your message out. The Redford campaign took the media hits, editorial and pundit condemnation and polling results in stride. They pushed back hard on criticisms but they kept their focus.

You have to hand it to Premier Redford's campaign team - led by Stephen Carter and Susan Elliott - who proved that if you have a strong leader, a clear strategy, flexibility and skill in execution, you can indeed pull off a victory. Now for those pollsters and pundits who got it so wrong, what have they learned? Inquiring minds want to know.
Ethics and Political 'Scandals'
The Harper government has had a rocky ride in recent months with the management of controversies such as the full costs of the F-35s, the campaign 'robo-calls'm the use of military aircraft etc. The issue for communicators is when do such stories start to cause serious damage to a government's brand?
I appeared Wednesday evening on CTV Power Play with Don Martin, along with fellow panelists, Tyler Sommers of Democracy Watch and Alan Gilmore of St. Paul's University to discuss the ethics and the communications of such controversies.

The real point to be made here is that most governments can survive a number of minor controversies - such as Ministers who spend $1000 on hotel rooms in London (Minister Bev Oda) or (gasp) $16 orange juice and $3000 on limousines and drivers. The key is that it can't look like it's an ingrained pattern in which the Prime Minister or the government don't seem to care. The Harper government is not there yet, but as it came in to power feeding on the public outrage over the Liberals' sponsorship scandal, they have to be 'Caesar's wife' themselves. Did Bev Oda handle it well by apologizing and paying back the hotel upgrade? A day late and half-way didn't quite make the grade and she (and the government) had to do damage control for another day.
Walmart's Ethical Problem

The Sunday New York Times ran a major story detailing a pattern of pay-offs to Mexican officials in the roll-out of Wal-mart stores across that country.  The real damage wasn't so much the pay-offs -which wouldn't shock most people doing business there. It was emails along with former officials detailing that the knowledge and blessing went right to the CEO's office at Wal-mart. They apparently compounded the problem by ignoring advice to get an outside counsel, and instead turned over the internal investigation to one of the execs apparently at the heart of the scandal. So far, CEO Michael T. Duke has not responded.
What happened? The very next day, the share value of Wal-mart dropped over $1 billion! Fortunately for Wal-mart, other media focused on the issue of the pay-offs, rather than on the issue of 'what did the Wal-mart top executives know and when did they know it?'
What should Wal-mart have done? They should have realized they had a significant ethical - and legal - issue which had to be addressed in a transparent and proactive way. Rather than suppressing the internal investigation, they should have blown the whistle on themselves. That - if the story is accurate- didn't happen. 

It was all so preventable. In our '10 Principles of Effective Crisis Communications' (Overcoming Panic and Fear: Risk and Crisis Communications). No. 7 says: "Get all the bad news out at once - "have a bad day". Instead, Wal-mart may well end up with a bad year. 

Newt Gingrich Quits - Finally
Well, after losing the last five primaries to Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich is finally wrapping it up. Now Mitt Romney is turning his attention to positioning himself vs. the President rather than his Republican adversaries. In his early response, he seems to be satisfied with just criticizing Obama. However, he needs to define himself in a positive, meaningful way that connects with voters. If he can't do that, all the anti-Obama talk just appeals to the core supporters. How does he get to the swing voter? The middle ground? The jury is still out on that.
Obama Slow Jams with Jimmy Fallon
The fusion of politics and entertainment - kissing cousins since the days of Sinatra and Kennedy; Ronald Reagan and...Ronald Reagan; Bill Clinton and Arsenio Hall - is now complete with President Obama's appearance on Jimmy Fallon the other night. It was no doubt successful in connecting with young voters. Will it hurt him among older, swing voters? Has it all gone too far? you be the judge


Win a free copy of the 2012 edition of either Encountering the Media® or Overcoming Panic and Fear! Simply email us your name, contact information and name of organization to info@mcloughlinmedia.com and indicate which 2012 edition pocket tips book you would like to win. We will put the names in a hat and draw the winner. A $25 value!

Until next time....

With Santorum gone, what does it mean?

Welcome back!
It's been a much longer time than usual since our last post. Laura and I have been on the road virtually every week doing seminars. In this past month we've been to Charleston SC (heaven!); Philadelphia, New York, and several other business-related jaunts have kept us insanely busy. In between, I've been mad at work on the final edits on the 2012-13 editions of our first two Communicate with Power pocket tips books. I received the first copy of Overcoming Panic and Fear: Risk and Crisis Communications today.

The Launch of 2012-13 Edition: 'Overcoming Panic and Fear: Risk and Crisis Communications'

The look on my face in this picture is one of R-E-L-I-E-F. It's been a long time coming and we will be shipping out the pocket tips to our clients starting tomorrow. It's packed with 150 pages of strategies, tactics and skills to communicate effectively about issues of risk, and in emergencies and crises. If you want to know more about it click on:  http://mcloughlinmedia.com/our--new-pocket-tips-s268.php or drop me an email at barry@mcloughlinmedia.com and we would be happy to tell you all about it.

How Does Mitt Romney Spell Relief?
Speaking of relief, I'm sure that Mitt Romney must be relieved now that Rick Santorum has pulled the plug on his campaign. Not because he feared losing to him, but by pulling out, he just saved Romney's campaign a ton of money and more negative ads firing at a fellow Republican.
What can Romney do to close the gap?
Leaving aside the 'Etch a Sketch' controversy generated by his communications aide [in which he said that Romney could wipe the policy slate clean in September], he does have to pivot cleanly over to the issues that will give him a shot at the Presidency in November. He has to remember that an incumbent President must be voted out of office as the electorate rarely votes in a new President. Think of Jimmy Carter vs. Ronald Reagan or George Walker Bush vs. Bill Clinton. Those were classic cases of voting out the incumbent.
So here is what Romney has to accomplish in the next seven months:
1. Don't try a Game Changer as John McCain did with Sarah Palin. [Great HBO movie by the way]. Besides the electorate can smell a desperate ploy and will run for the exits should Romney try one of those.
2. Pick a running mate who can help him - such as Florida's Senator Marco Rubio who could reach the Catholic and Latino voter more effectively than Romney; or a woman VP candidate such as South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley who would be critically important to help close the gender gap. The key today for a strong VP candidate is someone who can not only bring home their state's electoral college votes, but more importantly make a big dent in a much-needed demographic group.
3. Focus the ballot question on the President's handling of the economy. Avoid making it nasty and personal. Contrast in positive terms how he would fix the economy and getting it moving again - with jobs as the focus. As the economy improves, however, it will make it harder to tag President Obama with it.
4. Romney needs to re-define himself from being the Wall Street 'loves to fire people' guy into a person who will fight for the American workers and small-business owners. His difficulty in handling his own personal narrative and family wealth have helped define him as the 'voice of the 1%'.
5. Get rid of the over-rehearsed awkward efforts at connecting with people. He needs to convey a credible sense that he gets what real families are going through and reach them with a message that they care about.To this point, he has trouble doing that.
6. He needs to heal the very deep wounds of the primary season, pull them together and get them to work with enthusiasm for his victory. When you spend a year making huge negative ad buys on your fellow Republican candidates, that will be incredibly difficult. He needs to build on the base - not pander to it.
7. He has to run a great fall campaign, win the debate with Obama, improve his 'earned media' campaign and try to avoid the verbal gaffes that have plagued his nomination battle. A tall order to say the least!
Ultimately, Romney's challenges seem almost insurmountable, but as both he and Barack Obama know, seven months is a lifetime in politics.
The Canadian Government's F-35 Procurement Controversy
The Harper government has been struggling to put a controversy behind it concerning what it knew-and when it knew it -  about the real costs of the development and procurement of a fleet of fighter aircraft to replace the F-18 fleet which is getting closer to its 30 year life-span. The Opposition parties have tried to define the issue as 'mis-leading Parliament' while the government has tried to put the issue behind it by acting immediately to respond to the recommendations of the Auditor General. Who will win the 'battle of the issue'? It all depends on how engaged the public becomes and what they think of the whole matter. I commented on the public's perception of the issue on CTV's PowerPlay along with pollster Nik Nanos.
The NDP's New Leader Sets Out to Define Himself

The rule of politics is 'define yourself before your opponents do' and no party has been better at that than the Conservative Party under Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Thanks to the successful 2011 election campaign led by the late Jack Layton, the NDP has found itself the Official Opposition with the Liberals under interim leader (and former NDP Premier) Bob Rae filling the void during the NDP leadership race as the 'real' Opposition.
So the NDP have leapt quickly to define Thomas Mulcair (now known as 'Tom') - their new leader - by launching a series of television ads. I appeared on Tuesday night on CTV's PowerPlay with Don Martin and former NDP Communications Director Brad Lavigne to discuss their effectiveness. My conclusion was that it wasn't a bad start but it needs to be better executed and he needs to show he can connect with voters.
Remembering Mike Wallace

And finally, the passing of Mike Wallace, a true broadcasting legend, was noted by many news outlets this week. Wallace was a one-of-a-kind news man whose sixty year career - including four decades on 60 Minutes - made a very powerful contribution to news and current affairs. I couldn't help but think of the times that Laura and I would see him on Main Street of Vineyard Haven - usually he had just finished a tennis match or was lining up for a coffee in the deli.

The first time we had met him was at a talk he gave in Edgartown at the Old Whaling Church in which he recapped his career - complete with terrific video clips from 60 Minutes. I asked him, "if a CEO were about to be interviewed by you, what would you advise?" I'll never forget his answer: "I would advise that person to get media training. You know, there are people who specialize in that? I spend my whole career interviewing so it's not a level playing field."
Afterwards, Laura and I came up and I sheepishly introduced myself as a media trainer and we had a chuckle and a nice chat about that. Laura brought up a recent situation with him about a government agency that had refused to speak with him about a controversial issue. She wanted to know how he felt about their refusal to talk to him - in which they had ultimately ordered him off the property?
"We always had a great relationship and they had received great coverage from us over the years", he told her, just shaking his head, genuinely mystified at their treatment of him. That strategy not only failed to get the Agency's message out, it effectively shut their message out of the program totally. He revealed that he had been a Communications Officer in the Navy and knew that their refusal to cooperate made his item one-sided and he didn't understand how media relations professionals would not realize that.

His warmth and charisma were powerful to behold - on television and in person and, although he has had many imitators, he was a true original.

Until next time.....

The Discipline of Politics

Welcome back!
It's been a month since we last got together.  It's been an insane travel period - with seminars from Toronto to Newfoundland to Alberta to Los Angeles and Washington in the last few days.

 I managed to sneak in an interview while in Washington on Don Martin's PowerPlay on CTV. In that segment, I joined pollster Nik Nanos to talk about the Conservative Government's handling of the 'Robocalls' controversy [in which a number of identified Liberal supporters in several ridings were called by someone purporting to be from Elections Canada on election day and told that their polling locations had been changed].
 My essential point there is that the Harper government has to keep their cool on the allegations, let Elections Canada do its work, and if individuals have violated the law, there is a legal system that takes care of those things. In the Strategic Communications class that Laura and I teach in the Riddell Graduate Program class at Carleton, our students have been given an assignment this week focused on how to handle that issue. We're looking forward to reading their strategies.
The government needs to get back to the issue that Canadians care about...and one that Republican candidates need to remember... "It's the Economy Stupid!" [Even though it was Democrat James Carville's slogan for Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign, it is even more relevant today for all governments and Parties.]
 Romney Inches (Painfully) Towards the Nomination
The Republican primaries grind on, with Super Tuesday underscoring the difficulty Mitt Romney is facing as he inches towards the nomination. With six wins chalked up on Super Tuesday to Rick Santorum's three wins, you'd think he would be able to breathe easier. But nooooo!
Romney managed to squeeze out a crucial win in Ohio. If he had lost that - combined with his losses to Santorum in Tennessee, Oklahoma and South Dakota, the tide would have begun to turn. What's keeping him in the lead is his (or his Super PAC's) ability to outspend his rivals 4-to1 or 5-to-1 in ad buys denouncing Rick and Newt. It's the classic strategy known as "you may not love me but I hope you'll hate my enemy just a little more."
 Ducking the Limbaugh Fall Out
Poor Mitt is so shaky in his relationship with the deeply Conservative wing of the Party that he couldn't bring himself to rebuke Rush Limbaugh for his verbal assault on Sandra Fluke, a 30 year old Georgetown University law student in her testimony to a Congressional panel. A golden moment to define his character and he ducked - merely saying that he would have used "different words". Rush lost his hearing several years ago (and now only seems to listen to himself) while Romney seems to be tone deaf. Having had candidates who share that trait, I recognize it well. For some reason they can't hear themselves the way the audience hears them. It's a real deficit in politics as not every comment can be cleared before they're said. So one relies on the candidates own abilities to edit themselves as they go.
Romney should take a page from Massachusetts Republican Senator Scott Brown who  tweeted that Limbaugh's remarks were "reprehensible". These golden moments to define one's character only show up occasionally and candidates have to recognize them for what they are - a chance to show some character.
Santorum Hangs in There...in Spite of Himself
Which brings me to Rick Santorum. He has certainly exceeded all expectations as his candidacy took off in January but he has hurt himself since then with damaging comments, such as his Michigan debate where he admitted that his support for George W. Bush's 'No Child Left Behind' was because ' sometimes in politics you have to take one for the team". Also his characterization of JFK's 'separation of Church and State' speech - that it made him "want to puke" was over the top. Although he later recanted  it on the Laura Ingraham show, his immediate defense of it on network television cemented the error. There is a place for nuance in politics but that was not a shining example of it. He's got to figure that some of those unforced errors took him completely off-message on the economy - which lost him Michigan and later, Ohio.

The difference between winning and losing candidates? All other things being equal, it's 'discipline'.

Until next time.....

Breaking Bread with the Obamas

 Welcome back!

It's been a whirlwind few weeks since last I shared a post with you. They say a week is a lifetime in politics and I would definitely endorse that, given the ups and downs of the Republican primaries. We've been on the road for three of the four weeks in January - from Newfoundland to Alberta - and into the first few days of February. Laura and I have really been enjoying our roles as Fellows in the Clayton H. Riddell Graduate Program in Political Management at Carleton University where we have taught our first four classes in Strategic Communications.

Breaking Bread with the Obamas
Last week in Washington, Laura and I attended the National Prayer Breakfast. Actually it's more than a breakfast - nowadays it includes two dinners, several lunches and seminars.
The highlight was the breakfast itself - which featured beautiful singing by the 11 year old sensation Jackie Evancho. After she sang, Vice President Joe Biden said quietly to her, "now I know what angels sound like". One of the highlights was a terrifically funny and inspiring speech by the writer, Eric Metaxas who is the author of a biography of Dietrich Bonhoeffer, executed in a Nazi concentration camp for his role in the attempted assassination of Adolph Hitler. The breakfast was capped off by an upbeat and thoughtful speech by President Barack Obama. Somehow we lucked out and were seated in the first row of tables and sat next to former Prime Minister of Haiti, Michele Pierre-Louis. We had a stimulating discussion about the efforts underway in Haiti to recover from that devastating earthquake.

As we sat only a few feet away, we also had an opportunity to see up close how the President commands the podium. I was pretty surprised to see him without the ever-present TelePrompter®. Instead, speaking with the aid of notes, he shared his spiritual journey and how much it means to him as a Christian. Hearing from others, it was a marked improvement from his original speech when as a junior Senator he proceeded to lecture the crowd. Predictably, no one likes to be lectured and he clearly learned the error of his ways.

The week included a visit to Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) at her offices in the Rayburn Building, who hosted us for a tour of the Capitol. No matter how many times I go, I come away impressed by the experience, the history and the architecture. We were also invited to a gathering at the incredibly impressive Canadian Embassy on Pennsylvania Ave. All in all, the entire experience was enlightening and enjoyable from beginning to end.

As you might guess, the big issue in Washington all week was the Keystone Pipeline decision.  Following the President's thumbs down, the House was holding hearings on the issue, and is now playing -what else? - as a partisan dividing line between Republicans and Democrats. It has become a metaphor for the power of politics to over-ride policy. The issue has soaked in right down to cab drivers and others who are not politically connected at all. It has become part of the election year Republican narrative against Obama. Canada is caught in the middle, but, for once, the fact that Canada is even mentioned in domestic politics is noteworthy, as it illustrates how inter-connected our two economies have begun.
The Gingrich Ship Runs Aground
Following his impressive wins in the Florida primary and Nevada caucuses, Romney has gained the traction he needs to vault him through Super Tuesday and onto the Republican nomination. In Florida he showed he can five a punch and take a punch as he turned his attention to Newt Gingrich whose south Carolina performance threatened to destabilize the Romney campaign. Although it's hard to tell whose ads were nastier, the simple fact is that Romney out-spent him on the ad-buys by 5-to-1. Money can make a huge difference, but in this case Romney's performance in the two Florida debates was the biggest difference. He clearly outshone Gingrich - who was off-balance and testy - in contrast to the confident leader that people saw in his South Carolina performance. In the past week Gingrich was the Costa Concordia of the campaign - sliding too close to shore and running aground.
Romney Fires His Florida Debate Coach
Politico has revealed that, following too much media focus on the work of former Michele Bachman campaign adviser Brett O'Donnell in prepping Romney for his Florida debates, they pressured O'Donnell to call up the New York Times to downplay his role, and then they told him that his services were no longer needed. Even though there is no evidence that O'Donnell drew any attention to himself, nevertheless Romney and his team clearly can't abide any attention that doesn't credit the candidate completely. As a debate coach myself, I had to learn early on to stay below the radar screen when it came to media attention following a successful debate performance. It's a bit like being a speechwriter for a politician. No politician wants to read credit for the speech going to the speechwriter. You're paid to do it but beware the spotlight turning to you!
Canada Gets Ready to Tighten the Budgetary Mainsail
The signs are everywhere that the Harper government intends to cut back on public spending, rein in entitlement programs and get the bad news out of the way before they have to face the electorate three years from now. One cautionary note might well be advised to governments that choose to cut spending, especially following years of increasing it. That is, make sure that your motives are clear and that you convey who you are doing this for. As with Mitt Romney's now infamous 'I just like to fire people' it would rub people the wrong way if they don't get the message out effectively. Three years from now it could be the gift that keeps on giving.
New Campaign Fund-Raising Tools
Money is the milk of politics and the use of internet, social media and a mobile fund-raising tool  known as the Square credit card reader attached to your smartphone helps vacuum up the money into the campaign machinery faster and better than ever.
Who said politics is boring? Expensive, frustrating, occasionally annoying, but boring? Never!

Until next time......

Lessons from Newt's SC Victory

Welcome back!

It's been a crazy couple of weeks. Since I last posted my blog, we've been in St. John's
Newfoundland (again) and are now in Edmonton. The Republican primaries have been delighting political fanatics - such as yours truly. First, with the 'never-say-die' campaign of Rick Santorum (who was declared the Iowa caucuses winner, only two primaries later). Then the irrepressible Newt Gingrich who routed Mitt Romney in South Carolina. It seems that just as Romney appears close to becoming the inevitable nominee, it's snatched back from him, as Republican voters still can't get entirely comfortable with him.  So, what lessons can be learned from all this, going forward in the run for the Presidency?

Lessons from Newt's South Carolina Victory

1. When in personal trouble, attack the 'elite media'. ABC News timed its 'exposé' with his second ex-wife, for maximum impact. Everyone who tuned into the debate waiting with baited breath to see him squirm weren't counting on Newt's debate strategy which was to eviscerate CNN's John King for daring to make it his first question, and was able to position the whole thing as the "elite media protecting Barack Obama by attacking Republicans". Regardless of what one thinks of Newt, it was an incredibly powerful performance which elicited a standing ovation from an apparently deeply Christian, conservative audience who will forgive sin before they forgive the media elites.
 2. Romney's delay in releasing his tax returns has increasingly become his Achilles heel, raising questions and rumors about whether or not he has paid his fare share. It makes the narrative about Romney being out of touch with ordinary Americans even more believable. He had previously said he would release his returns in April, but this is clearly not tenable. His surprisingly shaky debate performance combined with his flippant answer ("maybe") to John King's question about why he won't release his tax returns as his father [Gov. George Romney] had done, made him look uncaring about the importance of the issue. The question now is, will he try to get through Florida's Jan. 31st primary before releasing them? If he delays further, he risks losing Florida, and then his campaign will be in serious trouble.
3. Rick Perry's dropping out of the race, throwing his support (what was left of it) to Gingrich at first appeared like it was Perry jumping from the frying pan into the fire, but it served to give hard-core Conservatives a stronger reason to bet on Gingrich, in spite of the marital infidelity story.
4. Santorum can't be totally counted out yet. He finished in decent shape with a respectable third place showing, and if the vitriol between Gingrich and Romney ramps up any hotter, primary voters might turn to him as their second choice. Although he's a total longshot, crazier things have already happened in this primary season.
Sidebar - Canadian Content
As a sidebar, Newt Gingrich somewhat over-the-top slamming of Obama turning down the Keystone pipeline project added Canadian content to the debate. His description of Stephen Harper ("a Conservative, pro-American Prime Minister") turning away from the American oil market and towards China as a result of the President's giving a thumbs-down to the Keystone project, wasn't exactly accurate but all's fair in primary season, right? [However, the Prime Minister's casting of the Gateway pipeline struggle as 'environmental radicals and Hollywood celebrities vs. Canada's economic future' was a definite take-away from the Keystone experience. Last week I did a coast-to-coast radio tour on CBC discussing it in strategic communications terms.

Although it's still a long way away, and still somewhat hallucinatory to contemplate, President Newt Gingrich, is actually not completely impossible!

Until next time.....