Is there any chance for Rob Ford?

Welcome back!
Who is the happiest person in Canada right now? Why, that might well be Stephen Harper, who just a week or so ago was mired in the 'Senate scandal' and now sees a media universe dominated with far greater outrage and media fixation....the Rob Ford Follies. Laura and I spent a lot of time in Toronto last week, and the mood is not one of fun and games...it's a profound sadness that has taken hold over the soap opera. It's only as one goes farther afield across Canada and the United States does a certain giddiness take hold...leading to Saturday Night Live, the Daily Show and Letterman's Top Ten. It's not something that Toronto needs - as a city, it needs to be taken seriously. In this post, we will take a look to see if there really is any chance for Rob Ford at this late date?

Coming soon to Sun News Network. I would be amazed if some creative reality TV producers haven't already inquired about the possibility of a series starring the Ford family. Given the international fame already generated by the daily feats of PR blunders by Mayor Rob and Brother Doug, it's entirely likely that they could rival Duck Dynasty or the Kardashians for viewers.
Just when you think there's been nothing new to comment on regarding the Mayor, here comes another outrage to feast upon.
I have been doing my share of media interviews - although not with any sense of glee - but to try to understand how intelligent people can violate every rule of ethical and effective crisis management - let alone common sense. Earlier in my career I had coached the late Doug Ford Sr. when he was a member of the provincial government. I found him to be a common sense, self-made, smart man who could sense political BS from a mile away. Ironically, it was those qualities of his father that made Rob Ford so appealing to the electorate back in 2010 when he ran for Toronto's mayoralty. It's exactly what seems to have left him over the past year or so. I have worked for a number of Mayors who have found themselves in trouble - some through no fault of their own - but the one common denominator that was needed to help them, was their recognition that something profound had to change in their conduct and messages. In Rob Ford's case, his political instincts seem to have left him; his ear for the 'Ford Nation' seems to have turned to tin. All the exposure on CNN's Anderson Cooper and Fox News is not going to help him. And now the only question remaining in his career is...
Is there any chance for Rob Ford?
Well, the odds are against him, but he has a slim chance. 

Many point to the comeback king of crack-smoking mayors, Washington DC's Marion Barry whose FBI sting video of his arrest while caught in mid-puff, earned him a prison sentence. His infamous comment about the woman in the video, "the bitch set me up," put him in a deeper hole of public esteem. Nevertheless, only a few short years later he was re-elected Mayor, and, in fact, still serves on City Council. Now that's not an exact comparison; and Ford has not even been charged - and likely will never be - for his admission. However, Barry didn't lie - and as his supporters endlessly repeated - "he did his time". Mayor Ford chose not to tell the truth nor did he serve any penalty. However, Ford Nation is deeply loyal and, so far, have proven (amazingly so) to the Mayor. That support can dissipate and fracture. Ultimately, when people get tired of a circus, they don't want to go back. That is the ultimate danger to Rob Ford's future - that people just get tired of it. He needs to change the channel, but he appears to be in a deep rut, and doesn't want to get out of it.
Everybody loves a redemption story, but there's been no redemption here.
His refusal to take a medical leave of absence and clean up his act has been one of the greatest failures of judgment in the entire sad spectacle. What he has failed to understand is that the public is enormously forgiving (Bill Clinton, Marion Barry, Gov. Mark Sanford etc. etc.) so long as you eat humble pie and take your punishment. If he had taken a leave for treatment last May or June when the story of the crack video first surfaced, he had a window of opportunity to get cleaned up. However, as the Toronto police surveillance tapes have shown, he seemed to spend an inordinate amount of time this summer engaged in suspicious activity with at least one known criminal (even though he seemed to know he was being followed by the cops). That is a complete failure of common sense, no matter how the die-hard Ford Nation tries to paint it. 
Stop blaming the media for his troubles.
Sure, the Toronto Star has been a thorn in his side. But they turned out to be right about the crack video (the existence of which the Mayor had long denied - until confirmed by Chief Blair). The Mayor treats most of the media as the enemy - which appeals to his base - but is not going to help him in any possible recovery scenario. 
Tell the truth first - not eventually. The Mayor doesn't seem to understand that people will forgive everything except lies. So tell the truth immediately - not when all other options have been exhausted.
What is one thing he could do - even now - to give him a chance for re-election? 
Make a dignified statement admitting fully his mistakes, apologize to the Toronto Chief of Police, Bill Blair (for the demand that he resign), apologize to his Executive Committee whom he has alienated, apologize to the people of Toronto for putting them through this spectacle, and then take whatever time it takes - one to two months at the least - to get treatment. Come back sober, fresh, determined and genuinely focused on the taxpayer. And....he would have a chance (a slim one, but a chance, nonetheless). Without it, the circus will continue, and long before election day next October, the Ford Nation will have fractured, and, it will be an ignominious defeat worthy of Anthony Weiner.
Sad, sorry, and ....it didn't have to be.

Until next time.......