Showing posts with label Michael Ignatieff and the election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Ignatieff and the election. Show all posts

5/7/11

Looking back...and looking forward

Welcome back!
I'm heading back from a few days' golfing trip with some friends in one of my favorite places on earth, Martha's Vineyard. Golf is a great sport to keep you grounded (at least my club was grounded on a regular basis....). It's certainly humbling. On Thursday - my first game of the year - I actually played decently (no numbers but my game was surprisingly solid). Then of course on Friday I ballooned by 11 strokes on the exact course in perfect weather. No excuses! It was the 11th annual Cinco de Mayo Tournament with 20 men - half representing Connecticut and the other half, New York. As an Irish-born Canadian, apparently it made perfect sense that I be part of the New York team! As I am currently on my way back home, the outcome is still uncertain, but trust me, my absence in the final round will not be a game-changer.

Bringing Justice to Bin Laden
With the elimination of Osama Bin Laden, the world is a better place, and it's a small measure of justice in the twisted story of the millionaire manipulator and mass murderer. Of course, the usual suspects come out of the woodwork with their plot stories and fake photos posted on the internet denying reality. Let's leave that to the Pakistan authorities. Talk about denying reality! Good for Barack Obama and the Navy SEALS. I know it's unfortunate that the President won't release the bin Laden photos. However, I can understand why, given the ability of the Jihadis and nut-bars to use the internet as a vehicle for leveraging their hatred. Too bad for Donald Trump. Rumors are that he was all set to sign up bin Laden for Celebrity Apprentice...

Donald and the 'Birthers'
Speaking of the Donald, his championing of the 'birther' movement has smacked of desperation from the get-go, but Trump does follow the rule that 'there's no such thing as bad publicity'. [Tell that to Charlie Sheen, whose fifteen minutes of fame are quickly coming to an end.] Although, the President could have ended that so-called controversy a long time ago by releasing his long-form birth certificate, which he has now done. It's understandable that he didn't want to be bullied into it giving it up, it did contribute to a ludicrous situation snowballing into something larger. So, it was the right call to do it.

Looking Back on the Canadian Election
With a few days to process the federal election, here are my thoughts on what happened and what it all means.
1. Stephen Harper won a solid victory, with 167 seats. He needed 155 seats in the 308 seat House of Commons, which gives him a comfortable cushion for the next four years. I note that quite a number of panels and expert commentators seemed to have 'buried the lead' in journalistic terms. They focus more on the NDP phenomenon than on the main story.
2. The NDP were indeed the surprise of the entire election and totally exceeded all the projections and pollsters. Why did the NDP do so well? The NDP does well when they represent a clear alternative to the status quo. This, Jack Layton was able to do, and in an even greater surprise in both English and French Canada. Layton virtually obliterated Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois in the process.
3. Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals triggered the election and you really have to question, why they did that? They were well back of the Conservatives when they triggered the House vote of confidence on the
'ethics' issues. They could have kept their powder dry until their Leader was better known in the public, and their resources and positioning were stronger and marketed better.
4. Fundamentally, the Tories won the ballot question, "stability vs. partisan, risky minority coalition governments". This was particularly effective as Michael Ignatieff had already been defined by the Conservative attack ads for two years leading up to the election.  Negative attack ads among the parties probably cancelled each other out.

For some of my other comments on the election, check out my interview on Theo Caldwell's 'The Caldwell Account'

Until next time, if you have a few minutes, kindly keep my younger sister, Nora, in your thoughts and prayers as she fights for her health.

3/30/11

Here we go!

Welcome back!
We've just returned from Greenville, South Carolina where Laura and I did a seminar. Although the weather was unseasonably cool, we nevertheless enjoyed the beautiful town and people.

The Federal Election Campaign is Underway 
The party leaders are out of the gate quickly - if not entirely cleanly. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff instantly hit a roadblock when he refused to cleanly disavow the possibility that he would form a coalition government with Jack Layton's NDP. It took him several news cycles to finally get off the fence and state clearly that he is ruling out such a possibility. It does beg the question, "what was he thinking?" My view is he didn't think fully through what, in effect, he was asking voters to do? "Vote for me and I may/may not run the government with Jack Layton and a few NDP'ers in my Cabinet." Instead he didn't seem to realize that all he needed to say was, "If I am asked by the Governor General to form a government which can meet the confidence of the House, I would attempt to do so on an issue-by-issue basis. Mr. Harper himself has done this, as Paul Martin before him did, as Pierre Trudeau and Lester Pearson before them did. I absolutely rule out a coalition government." In effect, that's what he ended up saying, but  why the agony in getting there?

For the Tories part, Stephen Harper spent the first few days hammering the Liberals over the "C" word, but once it settled down have turned their attention to their economic policies, which they know must be the ballot question if they are going to get a majority government.

Jack Layton and the NDP are having trouble getting traction through the noise between the Liberals and Conservatives. They are clearly targeting small business owners and consumers with their policies as they hit hard at the corporate tax cuts of the Harper government. His broken hip appears not to be too much of an impediment, even though he has clearly cut down on the number of appearances and has stopped worrying about photos and videos of him with his cane.

I will be appearing weekly during the campaign on CTV's Power Play with Don Martin. during the campaign. My second appearance is this evening at 8:15 p.m EDT, so I hope you can tune in. Last week's appearance can be found here  where pollster Nik Nanos and I examined the communications challenges facing the leaders.

Anatomy of a Runaway 'News' Story
During the election campaign I will occasionally be looking at some of the more egregious news stories that fail the test of fairness. Exhibit 'A' is a Global News Winnipeg item which managed to insert its own interpretation into a story about Conservative MP Shelly Glover's comments about the Liberal MP Anita Neville who is running in a neighbouring riding. The National Post did an excellent job dissecting the  'non-gaffe' . Actually, the reporter missed the real news in the piece, in which Shelly Glover, after telling the reporter that she wasn't going to reveal the name of Neville's opposing Tory candidate as there was no 'candidate of record' at that point, ended up revealing his name anyway. Also Glover declined an opportunity to do a Global Winnipeg interview to respond to the 'story' and waited until the next morning to clarify her remarks on CJOB radio. She should have known to move immediately to set the record straight.

What should be noted in the story is that the Global Winnipeg reporter and the news anchor Peter Chura introduced the word 'age' into the story in the first place - interpreting Glover's comment, "she's passed her expiry date" as referring to her "age" and "too old for the job".  This was low-hanging fruit for the Global news team and they were determined to pluck it. They also made a feast of it the next day by constructing a phoney 'poll' of its viewers on Global Winnipeg's  website, misrepresenting her remarks, as follows:


What do you think of Glover’s comments toward Neville?


So this is a perfect media-generated news story that is a win/win for the media outlet in question. Even if they've mischievously hyped a non-story they benefit by milking it for days to come. Perfect!

It's still early days with lots of mud to be slung and real or imagined 'gaffes'. In other words, it's politics as usual. Let's hope that there is still room for real issues to be debated.

Barack Obama's Statement on Libya
After nine days of taking a 'shellacking' in the media over his Administration's actions in Libya, President Obama finally came forward with a speech to the nation making the case for getting involved in the Qaddafi horror show. How did he do? Great optics by delivering the speech with numerous flags as a backdrop at Fort McNair. He clearly wanted to present himself as the Commander-in-Chief and to that extent it was a compelling visual.

In substance, it bought him some time, but was not entirely satisfying for those looking for a clear set of principles. Clearly the President does not want to follow the Bush Iraq policy and yet wanted to be seen as taking strong action to protect innocent civilians. He continually pressed the point that the U.S. would only be involved in concert with other nations - which Canada, the U.K., France and others are contributing through NATO. The fact that the NATO mission is led by Canada's Lt. Gen. Charles Bouchard is helpful to the case that he made. He took a swipe at the Clinton Administration's failure to move on the Rwanda genocide issue until it was too late, and he took a shot at George W. Bush's Iraq policies. What will he do about the Ivory Coast, Bahrain or Sudan? Those, apparently, will be decided on a case-by-case basis. 

So what is the end game in Libya? Well, that's still up in the air. It's clear Obama wants Qaddafi gone - preferably by imitating Egypt's Hosni Mubarek and quitting. But that won't happen. Mubarek is a realist, while Qaddafi is a crazed extremist. More than a minor difference, there. So then what? Stay tuned.  

Until next time......

9/10/09

Selling Health Care & an Election

Welcome back...
Well the 'death panels' are now a thing of the past (whew!) as President Obama sought to reassure the American people Wednesday night, that 'change' is not scary. Did it work? That depends on who he is targeting with his message.

First, he had to shore up the Democrats' base - which has been splitting at the seams of late over the 'public option'. I interpreted his message as "a public option if necessary but not necessarily a public option." Okay that will help.

Secondly, he tried to swing the independent vote by reassuring them that if they like their health insurance plan, then they can keep it - no problemo! Then he promised that he would not run a deficit - not even a penny! Ever! Wow! And he won't raise taxes to do it. Double wow! And half the $900 billion cost will come from cutting waste and mismanagement in medicaid. Triple wow! Incidentally, nearly all politicians claim that they can do that, but that's the first time I ever heard that there was that much waste. If all that doesn't get the independents' vote then nothing will.

Thirdly, he sought to reassure seniors who had been frightened by scare tactics about 'death panels' managed by bureaucrats to decide whether grandma or grandad will get treatment or not. Take that Sarah Palin!

As expected he connected emotionally with the Senators and Congressmen in the room by sharing a letter that Sen. Ted Kennedy had written him, but only delivered to him by Vicky Kennedy after his death.

So was it an effective speech? In a word, yes! He hit the mark and he did it with that combination of cool and passionate that very few can do. He continually positioned himself as the moderate between the 'extremes' of the left and right. [Canada's single payer system being on the left, and the big bad mean health insurance companies and their fellow ideologues of the status quo on the right.]

However, it was far from being a perfect speech. He seemed to go out of his way in places to be partisan when a number of lawmakers were seeking the spirit of bipartisanship. So in my view, some of that was superfluous to his central message - that the status quo is no longer acceptable and he is determined to get the job done.

With regard to Canada's health care system, it is not perfect of course. In fact, many Canadians have a lot of frustration with aspects of it. However, one of the few things that unites Canadians is criticism of it from another country. A former Prime Minister (one Jean Chretien)famously said, 'Canada has the best mediocre health care system in the world." Another time he said, "It's not a Cadillac..it's a Chevrolet." [That was of course before GM was taken over by the government, but I digress...]

In terms of the battle for media coverage, the President's speech was quickly taken off the front page and replaced by the 'you lie' call-out from South Carolina's Rep. Joe Wilson (R).

It gave the President a chance to sound both conciliatory and Presidential the next day, but it did divert the water-cooler talk the next day. The Republican leadership wisely moved quickly to make him apologize and distance themselves from him. But the Republican brand took a hit last night. As you can see here, Mr. Obama took full advantage of the opportunity it presented him, to call for a civil debate. Hey take the gifts when they come your way, right?

Meanwhile in Canada...the election call gets closer and closer...

Prime Minister Harper gave Michael Ignatieff a golden opportunity to gain some political traction when this video was handed to the Liberals, and then to the media, by a student at a Tory gathering [closed to the media]. The talk of a 'majority' had been avoided scrupulously in previous elections, but it will now have to be front and centre. So the PM ought to take these eggs and make an omelette! Selling more uncertainty has probably lived out its usefulness on the political landscape anyway.

Gentle American readers, in Canada it's usually politically damaging to suggest that (gasp) you might want or need a majority government. Even if the country has had the instability of three elections in four years due to the instability of minority governments...

The rule there of course is that 'there's no such thing as off the record' and the earlier that lesson is reinforced for the Conservatives the better for their chances in the seemingly inevitable election to be called within a few weeks. [PREDICTION]

In the scheme of things, it's probably not too significant, except that it will perhaps embolden Mr. Ignatieff even further towards the point of no return!

Finally, Remembering 9/11 Eight Years Later

September 11, 2009 marks the 8th anniversary of the 9/11 tragedy and hopefully we mark it with thoughts and prayers for the victims and their families. You have not been forgotten. I vividly remember where I was on 9/11. Laura and I were about to do a seminar for about a dozen senior judges from the Federal Courts across the country. We were stunned by the television pictures and, even though we didn't want to stop watching, I suggested that we begin our seminar and then later we would come back to it to see what happened. That took every ounce of effort on everyone's part, but it was instinctively trying to find some semblance of sanity when you knew suddenly that the world had gone completely mad.

A few days later, Ambassador Paul Cellucci and Prime Minister Chretien, along with 100,000 Canadians with tears in their eyes went to Parliament Hill to express their deepest sorrow for the victims and for the solidarity that Canada felt for the United States in its time of shock and devastation. It was a profoundly powerful experience.

So how do you put to words what that day meant? Here are the lyrics to the Alan Jackson song, Where Were You (When the World Stopped Turning) that have always got to me when I think of that day. How about you?

"Where Were You (When The World Stopped Turning)" Words and music by Alan Jackson

Where were you when the world stopped turning that September day
Out in the yard with your wife and children
Working on some stage in LA
Did you stand there in shock at the site of
That black smoke rising against that blue sky
Did you shout out in anger
In fear for your neighbor
Or did you just sit down and cry

Did you weep for the children
Who lost their dear loved ones
And pray for the ones who don't know
Did you rejoice for the people who walked from the rubble
And sob for the ones left below

Did you burst out in pride
For the red white and blue
The heroes who died just doing what they do
Did you look up to heaven for some kind of answer
And look at yourself to what really matters

I'm just a singer of simple songs
I'm not a real political man
I watch CNN but I'm not sure I can tell you
The difference in Iraq and Iran
But I know Jesus and I talk to God
And I remember this from when I was young
Faith hope and love are some good things he gave us
And the greatest is love

Where were you when the world stopped turning that September day
Teaching a class full of innocent children
Driving down some cold interstate
Did you feel guilty cause you're a survivor
In a crowded room did you feel alone
Did you call up your mother and tell her you love her
Did you dust off that bible at home
Did you open your eyes and hope it never happened
Close your eyes and not go to sleep
Did you notice the sunset the first time in ages
Speak with some stranger on the street
Did you lay down at night and think of tomorrow
Go out and buy you a gun
Did you turn off that violent old movie you're watching
And turn on "I Love Lucy" reruns
Did you go to a church and hold hands with some stranger
Stand in line and give your own blood
Did you just stay home and cling tight to your family
Thank God you had somebody to love

I'm just a singer of simple songs
I'm not a real political man
I watch CNN but I'm not sure I can tell you
The difference in Iraq and Iran
But I know Jesus and I talk to God
And I remember this from when I was young
Faith hope and love are some good things he gave us
And the greatest is love

I'm just a singer of simple songs
I'm not a real political man
I watch CNN but I'm not sure I can tell you
The difference in Iraq and Iran
But I know Jesus and I talk to God
And I remember this from when I was young
Faith hope and love are some good things he gave us
And the greatest is love

The greatest is love
The greatest is love

Where were you when the world stopped turning that September day?

Let's pause and remember, and keep a little perspective. Life is to be cherished.
Barry