Time to clear the decks

Happy New Year!
 Now that we are all rested and recovered from a bruising year, it's time to turn our attention to 2015 and what may be in the cards politically. This is the time of year when consultants, journalists and social media aficionados routinely make predictions about what the future holds. I am going to resist the temptation to forecast, as it's a mug's game, at best.
However, I think it's worthwhile to examine some of the tectonic shifts, and offer cues and tips which can provide some guidance going forward. I have done a few media interviews on the subject recently and here is one of them on Global TV's The West Block. In that interview, my emphasis was on the key question that most winning leaders have to address, namely "who speaks for me?". In elections, that means the middle class, who are the big 'get'.
Clearing the decks
Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party are clearing the decks for the scheduled October 2015 election. Today he took care of two headaches that were soaking up too much media coverage and damaging his brand.

Shuffling Minister Fantino

The first one - he shuffled Veterans Affairs Minister Julian Fantino out of that post where he had alienated many veterans' groups - over to Associate Minister of National Defence. This removes him from further attacks and puts him back in a portfolio where he has already served and is definitely lower profile. Mr. Harper's pick, Ontario MP Erin O'Toole, who has an Air Force background, is known as a good, solid communicator with an emotional intelligence that is critically important to the task at hand.

                                                   

Harper v. Wynne Face-Off  on 'Hockey Night in Canada'

The second 'clearing of the decks' is that the Prime Minister is (finally) meeting with Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne - with whom he hasn't met in over a year. The fact that he's squeezing it in before he attends the World Junior Hockey Championship between Canada and Russia, he hopes might remind voters of the highlight of his year: his retort to Vladimir Putin, "I guess I'll shake your hand, but I only have one thing to say to you -  you need to get out of Ukraine".

The key message underlying this move is to demonstrate that he can get along with others of a different stripe, and in Wynne's case, someone who had used him as a punching bag in that election campaign.

It's the Economy, Stupid 
He needs to turn most of the debate back to the economy, and with oil falling below $50 US, it will be good news for consumers, but bad news for the federal government's revenues (as it is for Alberta). So, even though the longer he waits to call the election, the bigger that deficit promises to be. However, Mr. Harper knows his core brand is the economy and his preferred ballot question is "who do you trust to steer the economy in difficult and dangerous times?"

The 3 D's facing Mr. Harper: 'Daily Dose of Duffy'

'3 D's for Harper: Daily Dose of Duffy'

He also needs to clear the decks as there will be a cross wind coming from the Mike Duffy trial scheduled to eat up 40 days of media coverage from April to June this year, just at the Tories need a clear pre-summer launch to the campaign. It will be a challenge for the Prime Minister to shape the media agenda in the face of the 3 D's for Mr. Harper: the 'Daily Dose of Duffy'.
What Mr. Harper needs to remind himself of, is that governments tend to get re-elected if their core theme is 'we did what we said we would do'. If that's what the voters think, then he has a good chance of being re-elected, with -at least- a minority government.

From the 'there are no silver linings in this playbook' Bill Cosby
Then there's Bill Cosby who doesn't seem to understand that when you're under fire for a series of sexual assaults, you don't go out and do a stand-up tour. Does he really need the money? Or is he just addicted to the (rapidly declining) adulation?
Kudos to Porter Airlines
In the throes of a truly sad year-end story, of a young girl who was bumped from a flight along with her father on their way to her chemotherapy treatment in Toronto, Porter Airlines moved immediately to make it right, by apologizing to her and offering free flights to her and compensation to her father.
Now that's a classic 'how to' in public relations, and, not so coincidentally, in doing the right thing after the wrong thing has been done.
Kudos to Porter for remembering that.

Now, if only some politicians could learn the same lesson!

Until next time!

What's the Deal With....?

Welcome back;
It's been a busy week or so since our last post. Since then, Laura and I have done seminars in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa, conducted our Thursday night course in Political Management and the Media at Carleton University's Riddell Graduate Program, and helped a few clients manage their crises. But it wasn't all fun, we had to work too!
What's the Deal with Piers Morgan? 

Has he jumped the shark?

Generally, I'm a fan of Piers and his show. He is quite fearless on subjects and usually doesn't suck up too much to the powers that be. Since the Sandy Hook massacre, however, he has decided to turn a large chunk of his prime time CNN show into an ongoing tirade on assault weapons. What do you think of that? I'm certainly in favor of sensible gun control and I don't believe that all rights are absolute. There are reasonable limits on weapons as there are on other 'rights'.
While one may applaud his passion and even his goal, I can't help but think that his single-minded 'mission' has created a 'jump the shark' moment in the life of his show. Hardly a night goes by without Piers Morgan Tonight hitting the subject. The danger zone is that people will start tuning him out as soon as they feel he is too predictable and too focused on driving his opinion vs. drawing out the views of his guest.
The fact that he plays up his British citizenship while debating Americans' Second Amendment rights doesn't help his case very much, but again, he doesn't let that faze him. Unless CNN intends to turn itself into MSNBC or Fox News, one would have to wonder what he's thinking? Can viewers now expect Piers to turn his program into a soapbox for some of his other 'passions'? Having said that, one does have to hand it to him - that at least he gives his opponents an equal chance to combat him and to state their cases (even the looney conspiracy nut, Alex Jones). It's a big departure, and Piers is a smart guy, so one has to figure he knows what he's doing.

What's with the Three Amigos - Senators Brazeau, Harb and Duffy?

Sens. Brazeau (CPC), Harb (Lib) and Duffy (CPC)

Given the mounting media coverage of the Senators' declaration of the location of their home residences, one has to wonder what they're thinking? The rules of the Senate are, that if their official residence is far enough from Ottawa, then they can claim expenses on their (second) home in Ottawa. However, all three Senators have declared that their main residences are not in Ottawa and, thus, they qualify for their claimed expenses. Hhmmm. All evidence seems to undermine those claims.Now it is reaching ridiculous lengths with stories about Senator Duffy asking for an expedited health card from the P.E.I. Minister of Health's office - triggering even greater media coverage.

What should the Senators do?
First, they should declare that they believed they were operating under the Senate rules as they apply to one's residence. Second, they should apologize and state that they now realize their claiming of expenses was not in compliance with those rules. Third, they should issue a cheque to the government to put the situation right. Finally, they should do it before the Senate Internal Economy Committee rules later this month. End of case!

I guess the lesson here is that people have to keep learning the same lessons over and over again.
Until next time......